Tasman away at Waikato on October 3
Hi all, I'm pretty new here so go easy on me 😅. Just got into following the Bunnings NPC properly this season and I'm trying to work out who to back on the TAB.
Question: what's the prediction for Tasman away at Waikato on October 3? Who's the favourite and what kind of line are people expecting? They belted Bay of Plenty 45:26 at Trafalgar Park on the 24th, but the two losses before that (Auckland 22:24, Otago 33:57) have me a bit confused about which Tasman side turns up 🤔 maybe I'm wrong but it feels like a coin toss to me. Keen to hear what the regulars think 🙏
12 posts
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✓Welcome aboard, Lucy, quick answer: I've got Waikato as the favourite for October 3 in Hamilton, and my line is a home win by under 10 points. Tasman's form reads mixed to me: that 45:26 over Bay of Plenty at Trafalgar Park on September 24 was impressive, but the two before it (22:24 to Auckland, then a 33:57 thumping away at Otago) tell me the away form is shaky, and Hamilton is a tough road trip. Funnily enough they did put 42:28 past us Wellington mob earlier in September, so the upside is real, small sample though, four games.Numbers > vibes.
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Funny thing, Lucy. My old man always said form tells you the past, not the future 😉. Tasman's 45:26 over Bay of Plenty looked lovely, but those two heavy losses before it scream inconsistency. I'd back Waikato under 10 too.Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.
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Welcome Lucy, stick around, this thread's good value before kickoff 💸 Agree with BadBeatKing that Waikato's the favourite in Hamilton, but honestly I'm eyeing the under-10 margin band more than the head-to-head. That Otago 33:57 and the Auckland one-pointer scream "fragile away side" to me, while the Bay of Plenty demolition might've been a one-week hot streak rather than a real bounce. Under 10 in a multi leg is where my money sits, if the TAB line opens above that I'd lump on, if it's sitting around 6-7 I'd want better than even money before touching it. Would BadBeatKing's pick have landed last round? Yeah, I reckon it would. Same again for me 🔥Value over a big price 💸
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Lucy, the detail worth noticing is where those results came from. Both wins were at Trafalgar Park, the 42:28 over Wellington on September 5 and the 45:26 over Bay of Plenty on September 24 — while both losses came away or against the stronger opposition: 33:57 down in Dunedin and 22:24 at home to Auckland. Home ground comfort accounts for a fair chunk of that "bounce" Hannah is riding. Small sample though, four matches tells you very little, and I'd want to see how the squad travels before touching anything beyond the under-10 margin band. The Auckland loss being by two while Otago blew them out by 24 is the nuance here, the ceiling and floor are miles apart, which is exactly why I lean Waikato but keep the stake modest at the TAB. Heart says Tasman, spreadsheet says Hamilton by single digits.
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FixIsIn nailed the venue split, that's the whole read. I got burnt loading up on Tasman off the Bay of Plenty win before, so under 10 it is 😭💸Bankroll discipline wins.
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Don't laugh, guys, but I'd back the bounce here, a young side off a 45:26 win usually rides that buzz even on the road 🤔. Still, thanks FixIsInPTSD, the venue thing makes me second-guess my NZ$ 😅Learning from the veterans, go easy 🙏
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The venue split is tidy, sure, but that 33:57 in Dunedin makes me wonder whether the Bounce out of Hamilton might be even rougher. Waikato at home isn't exactly a soft landing. Personally I've watched plenty of young sides ride a big win straight into a wall, so the sensible money stays under 10. StatHead got burnt once, twice teaches you to keep the NZ$ small. 😉Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.
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Nah, way off 😤 Wellington got 42 put on them too and that was AT Trafalgar! One hot night vs a young side... we go up to Hamilton and get rolled. My NZ$ is on the Waikato line 🤬One love, one side ❤️
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@FullbackNut fair shout but one hot night at Trafalgar doesn't make the Mako soft at home tbh 🤔 coached plenty of young sides who feed off that buzz. Still gutsy on the line. Ah well, nowt to do 💪You don't abandon your own.
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FullbackNut's got a point buried under the anger, the home form (Wellington 42:28, BoP 45:26) sits awkwardly next to those two heavy losses away and even the 22:24 slip vs Auckland at Trafalgar, so the sample is genuinely messy. I could be wrong, but two straight defeatings before that one hot night doesn't scream momentum to me. Bottom line / forum consensus: Waikato at home in Hamilton, October 3, watch it on Sky/NZ - Tasman to keep it close but the favourite is Waikato by under 10 points, and that's where I'd put my NZ$ too.