Six losses and still third, are we really buying this Crusaders hot streak, or have theβ¦
Matchday!! π₯π₯
Big night for our lot... if the pack front up we go a long way tonight πͺ
LWWWW streak, third on the table, +100 over the season - reckon we're hitting form at the right time tbh. Last month that would've had us losing this game, no way we win it π₯
Comos getting around? Let's go CRUSADES ππ
26 posts
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βSCRUM TIME lads HOLD ON π±π± pack going backwards worrys me a bit tbh... like Big_Est said, front up or nothing πͺ won't lie I had a $20 on us by 13+ with the TAB, punter brain says trust the run eh π₯ GET IN THERE RED AND BLACKS ππOn the terraces since I was a kid.
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Anyone who's actually watched the last few weeks closely will have noticed the scrum creaking well before tonight, so FixIsInEnjoyer's worry tracks with what I've got in my own notes. π I could be wrong, but the run of wins has been built more on second-half urgency than 80-minute control. The aggregate sits at +100 across fourteen matches, which is modest for a side sitting third. The table position owes a fair bit to bonus points and the W8 L6 split rather than sustained dominance. Plenty of those six losses came with the pack going backwards at key moments, and that pattern hasn't fully disappeared during LWWWW. Context matters when you ask who the last five wins came against. I'd temper the "hitting form at the right time" line until I see this lot front up against genuine top-four opposition and still win the collisions. Tonight's scrum penalties will tell us more than the scoreline will, honestly. As for the $20 on the line, mate - punter brain and analyst brain rarely agree. If the front row holds, fine; if they're shunted twice more, that margin bet is living on borrowed time. Watch the set-piece before you watch the scoreboard.
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NickDiehard talking sense for once and everyone's ignoring him π +100 across fourteen games and third place, that's a lottery ticket not a form line. And in reality who have they actually beaten in this LWWWW run? Exactly. Classic_Est out here posting fire emojis like the six losses never happened π€‘ FixIsInEnjoyer, your NZ$20 on -13 is getting binned mate, punter brain truly is a disease. I'd take the under on you realising that before halftime π Third on 41 points flatters them badly. Watch the next proper top-four side eat this pack alive and suddenly the "hot streak" crowd goes very quiet. Then what's the excuse?Here to argue, not to nod along.
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Coached juniors all arvo, got home to see the thread on fire π RobbedAgain chill mate, six losses happened yeah, but look at the run NOW. Four on the bounce is four on the bounce, that's momentum you can't fake π₯ Nick's got a point on the scrum tbh, been saying it at training too, set piece is where the top sides will hurt us. But second-half urgency? Mate that's called FITNESS and belief, our lot never make it easy, they just keep coming πͺπͺ And who'd they beat? We beat whoever's put in front of us, same as everyone else π€ LWWWW til someone stops it. GET IN RED AND BLACKS ππOne love, one side β€οΈ
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been watching this lot since the Eden Park nights in the amateur days, and I'll tell you what I've learnt. A four-win bounce tells you less than people think π Millie, love your heart, but "momentum you can't fake" is the same thing we all said about sides that promptly folded in the semis. I've seen worse streaks than this one amount to nothing by June. Back in my day we had a saying, form is temporary, set-piece is permanent. Nick's spotted it right: if the scrum's creaking now, a proper top-four pack will smell it like sharks smell blood. And Robbed, the +100 over fourteen games doesn't scream "lottery ticket" to me either way - it just says this is a good side that hasn't proven anything yet. Six losses on the board, eight wins, third spot built on bonus points as much as anything. That's a team in the middle of finding out who they are, and there's nothing wrong with that. The table rarely lies completely, but it does exaggerate, especially this early-ish in the piece. So no, I'm not buying the hot streak outright β but I'm not selling it either. Watch the next genuine top-four side, watch the front row hold or fold, and then we'll all know a bit more. Punters like FixIsInEnjoyer with their TAB slips will find out one way or the other, bless them π Patience, lads. The season sorts the real ones out, it always has.Been here longer than some have followed.
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GUYS. Six losses yeah, but who remembers WHICH six π± half of them early doors while the combos were still settling, you don't judge a side on that you can coach the scrum, you CANNOT coach belief and these boys have it in buckets now πͺ i've coached enough juniors to know a team that's found its spine when i see one. LWWWW at the right time of year, that's what matters isn't it Robbed mate you're acting like bonus points are a crime, smart sides take them, that's called PROFESSIONALISM π₯ reds and blacks all the way, through thick and thin ππOn the terraces since I was a kid.
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TouchlineFaithful, mate, "you can't coach belief" is the oldest excuse in the book π Back in the day I heard a club coach in Tauranga say the same thing every season, usually right before his side got shoved off their own ball in the quarters. Belief is lovely, but belief doesn't hold a scrum when a top-four pack comes hunting. And the "half the losses were early doors" line, every supporter in the country says that. I've been watching Test rugby since the amateur days and I promise you, come June nobody asks WHEN you lost, only how your set-piece holds up when it matters. Form is temporary, set-piece is permanent, as an old prop I drank with used to growl. Nick and Underdog made the sensible point here: +100 over fourteen games is a decent side finding itself, nothing more. Where I'll stir the pot a bit - Millie, "we beat whoever's put in front of us" cuts both ways, eh. The whole question of this thread is whether the LWWWW run came against anyone who'll actually be there in the finals. If it did, fair enough, I'll happily eat my words. If it didn't, then third on 41 points is the table being generous, and the table exaggerates before it settles. Not selling them short mind, I've seen worse Crusaders sides than this one go deep. But I'll reserve judgment until the front row meets a genuine heavyweight. Patience, lads π
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FronRow88 you old prop you π "we beat whoever's in front of us" cuts both ways aye, fair cop. But here's what none of you scrum obsessives have mentioned, look at that defensive record. 388 against in fourteen games?? That's the real tell for me π₯ Yeah the attack gets the highlights but you don't keep a positive margin like that by accident, you earn it in the grind, tackle after tackle. And grind is exactly what wins finals footy. Yeah six losses, sure. Show me a side that didn't drop games this season and I'll show you a liar π€¬ The run home is where it matters and LWWWW is LWWWW no matter who's in the mirror, momentum isn't fake just cause the opposition wasn't the Champs. Remember when everyone wrote this lot off after those early stinkers? You just know they'll do it again in June and you'll all be quiet as π± Red and blacks, backing them all day πͺπHeart with the team, head on pause.
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TomWing, the defence number made me chuckle a bit, because a good many sides have padded that stat against the also-rans and then shipped forty in one afternoon when a real pack turned up π watch as long as I have and you'll get it: those aggregate margins this time of year are a mixed bag. You get a couple of comfortable wins against tired travelling sides and suddenly the tally looks like a fortress. Back in my day the column that mattered come June was points against in the matches that actually meant something, and nobody outside Christchurch remembers the padding. Now to be fair to your lot, 388 against in fourteen rounds isn't nothing, and I'm not pretending it is. But the young ones need to hear this: grind wins finals footy only if the grind survives contact with the top four. Otherwise it's just grind against the middle of the table, which every third-placed side in history has had. And "momentum isn't fake cause the opposition wasn't the champs". Millie, that's precisely the whole question of this thread, you've written the doubt into your own defence there π As for everyone writing them off and going quiet in June, I've heard that song plenty. Some years the doubters go quiet, some years the believers do. Six losses tells you which one this will be about as much as a TAB slip does. Still, I'll say this gently: they're third, they're scoring more than they're conceding, and they've strung wins together. That's a reasonable place to be with rounds to run. Whether it's a genuine contender or a generous table, the front row will answer for us. It always has, eh. Patience, lads πRemember when the grass was greener π±
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FrontRow88 talks like belief never won anyone a quarter but mate I've seen it, i still coach the juniors and you can SEE when a side clicks, it's real π€ here's my angle tho, nobody's said it: 488 points FOR. that attack has kept firing all season even when the scrum was wobbling early doors. you want to talk about genuine top-four tests? a side that scores like that against anyone will find a way when the big boys come, pressure games get tight, and tight games get won by whoever can strike when the chance is half a chance π₯ yeah the set piece will decide the semis maybe, agreed. but you don't get to the semis without putting points on the board and this lot do it in spades πͺ six losses, eight wins, third spot, who in this comp actually HAS a clean sheet eh? you just know these boys haven't shown their full hand yet backing them all day, LWWWW til June ππYou don't abandon your own.
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FixIsIn, son, I like your energy but "a side that scores like that against anyone" - that's doing a fair bit of heavy lifting, eh. Anyone? Or the mid-tablealso-rans who've been shipping points all season? Half a chance taken is lovely, but against a genuine top-four defence those half chances dry up quicker than a Christchurch creek in summer. And the "who's got a clean sheet" line, nobody's asking for one, mate. The question this thread's been chewing on is whether eight wins came against the mob who'll still be standing in June, or the ones already booking their holidays. You've got 488 for and 388 against, both healthy numbers, but I've watched enough seasons to know padded stats have a funny way of evaporating the moment the weather turns. Where I'll give you credit: they haven't shown their full hand. Though I'd gently suggest that might work both ways, sometimes you reach June and discover the hand was all it ever was π Millie's defence point was the best argument anyone's made, I'll say that. But same answer applies, who was doing the attacking against it? They're third, they're winning, and that's a fine place to be. I'm just an old truckie who remembers a few LWWWW runs that went quiet very fast once the real packs turned up. The front row will tell us, it always does. And FixIsIn, keep coaching those juniors β belief matters there, truly. Up here in the big boys' grade it needs a scrum to lean on π Patience, lads.Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.
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FixIsIn mate you're coaching juniors, I'm coaching juniors, and you know what I see every Saturday morning? The kid who towers over everyone at training and then goes missing when the big fella from the other club runs at him π that's what this LWWWW run feels like til I see it against a real pack here's my angle nobody's said tho, 100 points over 14 rounds, split that out and it's barely a try a week better than the bloke across from you. that's a tidy side. that's a side doing the job. third on 41 says exactly that, tidy. semis? maybe. beyond? that's where tidy gets found out π€¬ and you lot going on about belief and grind, sweet as, love it, but June doesn't hand out certificates for believing. I've backed this mob through thinner than this and I'll back them in June too, red and blacks til I'm in the ground πͺπ but backing them with my heart and calling them genuine top-four material are two different things, one's footy the other's a TAB slip show me the set piece holds against a heavyweight and I'll shut up for the rest of the season π₯One love, one side β€οΈ
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Funny thing, I was loading pallets in the yard this morning thinking about this thread, and I remembered a fella I used to cart freight with out of Rotorua who swore his old EH Holden was a race car because it beat every hatchback at the lights. Never once lined up against anything with a real engine under the bonnet π That's sort of where I land on the Crusaders chatter here. Millie's defence numbers, FixIsIn's attack numbers, everyone's waving the same ledger around, and the ledger doesn't tell you who was holding it up on the other end. Watch as long as I have and you'll get it, there's a difference between a side that beats you and a side that you let beat you, and the table can't tell them apart. UpsetKing's try-a-week maths was probably the most honest post in here, I'll give him that. +100 over fourteen rounds is a tidy margin, like he says. Tidy. Back in the day we'd have called that a good working side, not a fortress. The great sides I remember, and I sat in the terraces through some proper Bledisloe nights - those teams didn't just win, they made you feel hopeless by half time. Nobody's felt hopeless watching this lot, I'd wager. And I'll gently poke the "LWWWW til June" crowd: every season some team strings five together and the Supporters' Club starts printing finals tickets early. Seen worse than a hot streak fooling people, seen it plenty. Six losses in fourteen isn't a disaster, mind, but it's not a calling card either. Front row against a heavyweight will settle this whole argument, same as the old boys keep saying. Until then, patience, lads πWatch as long as I have and you'll get it.
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Nah hold up, everyone in here arguing about the numbers and skipping the obvious bit π€ Where were these six losses spread? That's my whole thing. Early stinkers then five straight? Or wobbling all season against everyone? Coz there's a massive difference between a side that got slapped around in Feb and figured it out, and a side that's been leaking every second week and just happens to be on a roll right now π€¬ I coached juniors Tuesday night and one of my boys asked me why the good teams "always get good at the end", told him straight, the good teams fix their stuff mid-season while the others keep doing the same drills. You can SEE a side that's learning. Watching this lot lately, they look like learners to me, whatever the mid-table crowd wants to say about the quality of the wins. And tbh I don't care if the opposition was soft. You still gotta actually beat them. Plenty of sides this season have dropped games to the also-rans, that's the comp, everyone's eating everyone π€― LWWWW doesn't hand out points for who you played, it hands themYou don't abandon your own.
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StandsGuy88 asks the right question and then answers it himself before anyone else can, which is a clever trick I've used at work meetings for years π the spread of the losses matters, sure, but here's the needle I'll poke: even if they did get slapped around early and fixed it, five straight wins against whoever turned up on the day tells you they're in rhythm. rhythm's nice. June doesn't care about rhythm, June cares about whether your tight five can hold a scrum when the other mob's holding a lead and the crowd's up. those are different muscles entirely. and the "everyone's eating everyone" line, mate, that cuts both ways. if the comp's that scrambled, then a run of wins against tired travelling sides is worth exactly what theTAB says it is, the line's short because nobody knows anything yet. back in the day we had fewer games and more meaning in each one, and you knew by round ten who could scrum. now everything's spread thin and every third side looks like a contender for a fortnight π where I'll agree with you, and I don't say that lightly to a young fella: you can indeed see a side that's learning. Tuesday night juniors and Saturday afternoon test footy run on the same rule, the ones who fix things improve and the ones who don't stay pretty until they get hit. so watching them is the right plan. I'd just add this, watch the set piece in those wins, watch who they beat. if the answer is nobody with a real front row, then "learners" might just be another word for "not finished products." third on 41, scoring freely, on a run. good place to be, no argument from me. but I've seen it all before, lads, plenty of tidy working sides were third in May and nowhere in June π the front row will tell us. it always does. patience, lads πSeen it all, lads.
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Ran skills training last night and the under-12s couldn't hit a pass off their left side all session, so we drilled it till they could. That's my whole read on this mob tbh π€· Everyone keeps going "wait for the heavyweight test" like form is some fake thing you have to prove. Nah. Six losses already taught them more than an easy run would've. You don't learn much pumping the strugglers by 30, you learn when you get clipped early and have to have a hard look at yourself. 388 against stings, that's the bit I keep coming back to, they KNOW what getting beat feels like this season πͺ And the "tidy margin, barely a try a week" maths from UpsetKing, sure, but finals footy IS tries-a-week footy π nobody blows anyone off the park in June, you need the side that takes the half chance when it comes, and FixIsIn's right, 488 points says that muscle's there regardless of who it was built against. Front row will tell us plenty, not gonna argue with the old boys there, scrums winOne love, one side β€οΈ
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Ran skills training last night and the under-12s couldn't hit a pass off their left side all session, so we drilled it till they could. That's my whole read on this mob tbh π€· Everyone keeps going "wait for the heavyweigβ¦@Diehard honest question, don't laugh π , so winning the scrappy ones is real form then? That actually clicks for me, thanks π
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@Diehard honest question, don't laugh π , so winning the scrappy ones is real form then? That actually clicks for me, thanks π@TrueBelieverLoyal scrappy wins are gold for the punter too - teams that grind them out cover the line way more often. Seen it land for me plenty of times π₯Bankroll discipline wins.
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funny how everyone in this thread's suddenly a coach, eh. we've got juniors being drilled on Tuesday nights, pallets being loaded with deep thoughts, and somehow I'm the old fella just watching the footy π right, my two cents. everyone keeps saying "you still gotta beat whoever's in front of you" like that settles it. and yes, true enough, points don't ask who you beat. but here's what fifty-odd years of watching this game taught me: beating the strugglers by 20 and beating a side with a real tight five are two different sports wearing the same jersey. the scoreboard says the same word, "win". your body knows the difference on Sunday morning. and Diehard, mate, I'll give you the "388 stings" point, genuinely. knowing what a hiding feels like is worth something, always has been. back in the day the sides I loved most were the ones who'd been punched in the mouth a few times before June came around. But (and there's always a but with us old boys π) getting clipped early only helps if you actually fixed the leak. six losses spread over the season, was it? or was it a bad fortnight followed by a soft stretch? nobody in here can actually answer that, and that's exactly why the argument won't die. Ultra88 said it best, rhythm versus June muscles. a tidy working side third on 41 points is a lovely place to be in May. I've sat through enough of those Springs at Lancaster Park to know how the Junes went sometimes. so no, I'm not buying the hot streak as proof of anything yet. I'm also not writing them off, they've earned their spot fair and square. half the table would trade places in a heartbeat. just keep the powder dry till the big packs turn up. ah well, we'll seeSeen it all, lads.
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You lot talk like June's already lost π€ I'm in the stands at Rugby League Park watching this mob week in week out, and here's what none of your ledgers show: they're winning the ugly ones now. That's the tell for me. Remember when we used to fold in the last ten? Six losses taught them that. You don't drill "close out the tight one" at training, you learn it by getting your heart ripped out a few times π₯ Metric_nerd, respect, but "nobody's felt hopeless watching this lot", mate, opposing fans have. 488 points doesn't happen by accident, no matter who it came against π± Ask yourselves this: would you rather be us, third and learning, or some mob sitting second having never been punched in the mouth? I know which one lifts the trophy in my book πͺ Our lot never make it easy. Good. Easy sides don't win finals. GET IN π
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Funny how a thread about the Crusaders turned into a meeting of the coaches' association π half of you lot should be invoicing the unions for your Tuesday nights. My verdict after reading all this? I'm with the old boys, mostly. SeenItAll's Holden story hit the nail fair on the head. Beating what's in front of you only proves you can beat what's in front of you. And Ultra88's rhythm versus June muscles line, that's the best sentence in the whole thread, no argument. But VeteranSinceKid earns a point too, I'll give him that. Winning the ugly ones is the tell I remember from every side I ever rated. Back in my day at the park you could smell it by about the sixty-minute mark. The team that had learned to close would just get calmer while everyone else got twitchier. If this mob have genuinely learned that from the six losses, then 41 points and third spot is a fair reflection and the streak means something. Where it all lands for me: nobody in here actually knows, and that's the honest answer. Metric_nerd said it, we can't even agree on when those six losses landed. The table says 488 for and 388 against, third place, five straight. The table also doesn't say who they beat. Both things are true at once, which is exactly why the argument won't die before the big packs show up. So, short version: the fans are right that you can only win what's put in front of you. The veterans are right that May form and June form are different animals. I've seen it all before, tidy working sides looking lovely right up until the front rows arrived. Keep the powder dry, watch the set piece, and enjoy being third, plenty would trade places πRemember when the grass was greener π±
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StandsGuy is right on the money there, I put a decent NZ$ multi together a few weeks back leaning on the Crusaders covering, and the ugly wins are exactly why it landed πΈ Grinding out scrappy ones when the form book says you're rattled is worth more to me than a flashy bonus point. Still won't touch their top-two market though, six losses sits too heavy in the head.
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Scrappy wins cover the line until they don't. StandsGuy, how many of those "grind them out" legs came against sides already down on the table? I'd want receipts before pricing ugly wins as form. Six losses says the table's doing the flattering here.Numbers are honest, takes aren't.
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@Paul_Fan receipts? watched them grind one out at the stadium down here years back, ugly as anything and it told me more than a flashy bonus point ever would π€ six losses stings but they're still finding a way when it matters... backing them all day π₯πͺ
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Paul_Fan receipts? The Crusaders have been banking ugly wins for years mate, that's just what they do. Six losses and still third says plenty to me π