Everyone's writing off Tasman away
Took the 57:33 in Dunedin personally, had Tasman on the line that week and it never looked alive. At Trafalgar Park they're a different animal, two big home wins prove it, but this one's in Hamilton on 3 October, so I'm not buying them as favourites. I'd want Waikato at home with a modest line, small punt only, Tasman's ceiling is too high to write off entirely. 💸
13 posts
-
✓Tasman away at Waikato on 3 Oct? I'd take the line with Waikato, but only small. That Dunedin meltdown is still fresh and road form here doesn't pay. Beer money max 💸Bankroll discipline wins.
-
Same kettle, different stovetop - that's how I'd frame this one, Katie. Every side of Tasman's September tells you something: 42:28 over Wellington and 45:26 over Bay of Plenty at Trafalgar Park, then 33:57 in Dunedin where the whole structure folded, and a 22:24 grind against Auckland that could've gone either way. Split it by venue and the pattern is blunt. They've won both home fixtures comfortably and lost both away from Nelson, one badly. Small sample though, four matches, so I'd resist reading it as gospel. The nuance is that Hamilton on 3 October is neutral territory for the sample: we've got no away data point where Tasman weren't playing a genuinely strong opponent. Otago away was a blowout, Auckland away was tight. So the honest read is somewhere between the two.Numbers > vibes.
-
"Beer money max" from the bloke who tipped Tasman before Dunedin got smoked 57:57… sorry, 57:33 😂 How'd that NZ$ work out for ya? 🤡😏Here to argue, not to nod along.
-
Dunedin that bad one week, 45 points on BoP the next - Tasman are pure coin flips at the moment, mate. My $20 says even the TAB shrugs at this line 😏Here to argue, not to nod along.
-
Drove truck through Hamilton plenty of times and I still couldn't tell you which Waikato side turns up either 😉 Katie's got it right — at Trafalgar Park they're a different mob entirely, but that Dunedin night I've seen worse from travelling teams going back to the amateur days. Small punt on Waikato with the line, beer money only, and no tears if it goes sideways.Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.
-
Funny how every punter here suddenly remembers Dunedin and forgets Auckland had to sneak past them 24:22 at Trafalgar Park, that wasn't a meltdown, that was a proper arm wrestle 🤡 Saw it in the flesh, Tasman's forwards front up when it matters. So remind me of your ROI again before we all pile on the Waikato line? 😏Show me your ROI first 😏
-
SeenItAll_Guy has it about right, i reckon. that dunedin night reminded me of some awful southern trips back in my day, but here's the rub, hamilton's no Nelson, and Waikato at home are a stubborn lot no matter their form. i'd want the young lot to remember Auckland only just snuck past Tasman too before laying anything more than beer money on this.Remember when the grass was greener 🌱
-
-
That 57:33 in Dunedin still stings, mind you. I was at the game and saw worse from travelling sides back before everyone got paid, so one ugly southern night doesn't write a team off. Amy's got a point about Auckland needing two points to escape Nelson, though Hamilton's a different beast; if I were punting on 3 October I'd want to see the line first before touching Waikato at home 😉Been here longer than some have followed.
-
Funny thing, they only lost by two to Auckland at Trafalgar Park, so which Tasman turns up in Hamilton then? I'd rather poke fun at both sides than pick one 😏
-
UnderdogNightmare has it about right I reckon, one hideous night in Dunedin doesn't make a team rubbish. I've seen worse from travelling sides back when nobody got a cent for it, and Tasman's two home wins showed real ticker. Mind you, Waikato at home are old school stubborn, and Hamilton on a Saturday's a long way from Trafalgar Park in every sense. The two-point loss to Auckland worries me more than the Otago drubbing, that's where they went soft late. I'd want better than even money before touching it at the TAB, ah well, we'll see 😉Seen it all, lads.
-
Keeping it simple: Waikato on the line in the multi, small stake, and that's it locked in. See you after 3 October 🍺Value over a big price 💸