Everyone's writing Tasman off away from Trafalgar Park
That Otago hiding still stings if you were on them like I was, but two of the three away games this season haven't exactly inspired confidence either, Auckland away wasn't even on the schedule. Home they're a different animal, 42 and 45 put up like clockwork, so I'd want the TAB line around +8 at Waikato before I touch it. Small punt only, NZ$25 on the plus line in the multi, full stake stays home until they win one on the road.
14 posts
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✓The away sample is literally one game, so the "away frauds" label is built on a 24-point loss at Otago. Home form is three matches. Too thin to price confidently 📊
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One away game means the line's pure guesswork, so I'm hedging: $20 on Tasman at Waikato, plus a fiver in a multi with the odd try scorer. If they land, it's good money 💸Value over a big price 💸
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😂 "Hedging" with $25 at the TAB, grand strategy there. Mate, weren't you tipping Otago to cover last week? How'd that work out 🤡Here to argue, not to nod along.
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Everyone's fixating on Otago like it's the whole story, but nobody's mentioned Auckland slipped one past them at home too, 22-24 on the 18th. Two of the last three gone, and one of the wins was a Wellington side that got put to the sword in Nelson where Tasman always look like world beaters. The gap between fortress Trafalgar and everything else is the entire bet here, and Matchday_88's $20 "hedge" is basically a punt on which version turns up 😏 I'm on Waikato at home myself, small poke on the line, nothing more. Backing the away side after a 57-point shellacking? Laughable really 🤡💸Here to argue, not to nod along.
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Seen worse than that Otago scoreline, believe me, I watched plenty of southern sides get skinned back in the amateur days and bounce back the next week. FixIsInPTSD has it right, one away game is a thin book, though GoTheDistanceOrNothing has a fair point about Auckland squeaking home 24-22 too. I'd rather watch this one with a cuppa than put NZ$ on it, but if you must, keep it small like Matchday_88 says. ah well, we'll see.Seen it all, lads.
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Hmm, Auckland copped 24 at Trafalgar too and still sneaked it, so Nelson's not exactly a fortress, is it? 😏 Remind me of your ROI on that Otago tip, mate 🤡
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Metric_nerd's right, seen plenty of sides cop a hiding then bounce back. Still, that Auckland loss at home makes me cautious - I'll keep my stake small at the TAB.Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.
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Wellington and Bay of Plenty both shipped 40+ at Trafalgar yet Auckland pinched it there. So the "fortress" crowd are dreaming 😏 Waikato away? My NZ$ are staying in my pocket 🤡Show me your ROI first 😏
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Funny thing, I was at the Edinburgh End when southern sides used to get skinned up north and bounce back the next week, so Metric_nerd's seen worse rings true to me. That said, OldSchoolEst66 has it right - a small punt at the TAB only, because that Auckland loss at Trafalgar gives me pause too. If I dip in on Waikato it'll be maybe NZ$20 just to make it interesting, nothing more. 😉Been here longer than some have followed.
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Seen enough of the fortress talk, cheers 😂 Auckland pinched 24 at Trafalgar last week and everyone still bangs on about Nelson like it's Eden Park. Waikato at home will smell blood after that 57 in Dunedin, so I'll chuck a lazy NZ$20 on Tasman's line purely because half this thread guaranteed they'd fold. Sure thing, mate 😏
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That Otago game was ugly, no two ways about it, but I saw worse done to good sides back in my day and they came home the next week with their tails up. Still, young ones, don't go loading up on Tasman just because they put 45 on Bay of Plenty, Auckland pinched one at Trafalgar only a few days later, and that tells you the fortress is built on sand more than concrete. I'll take the same line as OldSchoolEst66 here: a small punt at the TAB, maybe NZ$15-20 on Tasman getting some points, nothing that hurts if Waikato smell blood like Chloe says. I remember driving up from Whanganui in the amateur era to watch Mako sides get turned over away and win the following week - pattern hasn't changed much. Watch as long as I have and you'll learn the bounce-back is real, but so is the away-day wobble 😄Remember when the grass was greener 🌱
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I was on that Otago stinker for a small NZ$30 and it didn't land, lesson paid for. But I've also had the 45 on Bay of Plenty cover a decent slice, so Tasman at home is where my money's been earning. Verdict time: I'll take a modest NZ$25 on Tasman off the line away to Waikato on 3 October, plus a lazy NZ$10 win punt as a kicker. Won't touch the margin bands here, that 57 in Dunedin has me spooked on totals. If they turn up like they did against Wellington, it lands. If they turn up like Dunedin, see you after the match 🍺🔥Value over a big price 💸
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Chloe's got a point tbh, fortress talk died the night Auckland took 24 off them at Trafalgar 😅 But I coached enough junior sides who got pumped one week and turned up angry the next, so I wouldn't write the Mako off just yet 🔥 Only concern is if the heads have dropped after that Otago mess. If they turn up with some mongrel, Waikato are in for a proper scrap 💪On the terraces since I was a kid.