Manawatu vs Canterbury at CET Arena 3 Oct: ambush or run ends here?
Took the Auckland game as my lesson: I left the Turbos out of the multi after Waikato smacked them, then they go and drop 40 on Auckland away. Land a 40-point road win and suddenly every punter at the TAB's looking twice at them.
My read for 3 October: home ground at Central Energy Trust Arena matters, they edged Taranaki 27:25 there and that grind-out win tells me they can manage a tight one. But Canterbury away form usually travels, and Waikato showed what happens when the Turbos' attack gets shut down - 27 points won't cut it against a top side. I'm leaning Canterbury to win but Manawatu to keep it inside the line; single on the line rather than head-to-head, and maybe a small odd try scorer dart as the fun leg. If the line opens bigger than double digits I'll take it fast, because it'll move once everyone remembers that Auckland result. Chur, low stakes this week, NZ$20 and on and forgotten either way.
12 posts
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✓TouchlineUltra, that Auckland result is exactly why I keep the spreadsheet before the TAB slip. I could be wrong, but I'd treat the 40:34 with a bit of caution. Auckland conceded freely there, so it flatters the Turbos' attack more than their defence. The Taranaki game at Central Energy Trust Arena (27:25) and the Waikato loss (27:36) tell me their floor is real but the ceiling depends on whether Canterbury's defence switches off. For the 3 October match, my lean: home ground plus wins over Taranaki and Bay of Plenty make them live, but the Waikato tape is the template a disciplined side will copy. Depends how you count it, point differential across those four games sits around level, which screams tight line rather than value on either side. I'd be looking at the margin markets more than the head-to-head, small stakes only. 📊
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NickDiehard, fair point on Auckland's defence being leaky, but I'd flip it, the key factor is home form, not that road win. Turbos ground out 27:25 against Taranaki at the Arena when things got tight, that's the version I trust against Canterbury. I'd take Manawatu with the start rather than the straight upset, keep the rest of the multi clear of it 🔥The line moves — catch it.
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AmyBlues, the Waikato game stung, no argument there, but I'd look at the pattern rather than one bad afternoon: Turbos have won three of four this month, and the two home wins were both by seven or less, which tells me they can close out tight games at the Arena. My only hesitation is that we haven't seen them beat a genuine top-tier side yet, so I'd keep any NZ$ stake small or wait for the line before touching it. I could be wrong, but the four-point margin over Taranaki worries me more than the 36 shipped in Hamilton. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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🤔 ChrisDiehard387, two tight home wins tells me they can close out tight games? Or that they nearly blew both? 🙄 Canterbury at the Arena is a different beast tbh 🔥Heart with the team, head on pause.
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TomWing, that's the nuance right there - closing out a seven-point game against Taranaki and doing it against Canterbury are entirely different jobs, and two tight home wins is a sample of two, small sample though. What I'd want to know before touching the TAB line: which Turbos pack actually turns up on 3 October, the one that held Bay of Plenty to 12, or the one Waikato ran through for 36? If it's the former, an ambush at the Arena is live; if it's the latter, no home crowd saves them. 📊Numbers > vibes.
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Sample of two, that's my point 😅 Taranaki at the Arena won't scare Canterbury one bit. We scrape home tight, they bury teams. Show me a Turbos side that beats the reds and I'll eat my words 🔥
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Sample of two, that's my point 😅 Taranaki at the Arena won't scare Canterbury one bit. We scrape home tight, they bury teams. Show me a Turbos side that beats the reds and I'll eat my words 🔥@OldSchool_SinceDayOne2012 mate that Auckland game WAS the proof, 40 on the road and everyone still writing us off 😤 yeah canterbury bury teams but the Arena under lights is a different beast, I coached juniors there last winter and the crowd gets right on top of teams. Show up on the 3rd and see if you're eating words 🔥🙌
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I've got the Turbos' last four rounds in my own spreadsheet, and the away split jumps off the page: 40 at Auckland, 29 at Bay of Plenty, but only 27 managed in both home games. Two conclusions people draw from that, one is "they're a road team", the other is "the Arena suppresses scoring". I'd add a third: the opposition. Taranaki slowed everything down at the breakdown and nearly pinched it, and Canterbury will do the same job with better personnel. Point scoring margin across those four games is +14 overall, and if you strip the Waikato loss the defence has held up fine. Small sample though, four data points tell you a direction, nothing more. OldSchool's "they bury teams" line has merit, but Canterbury conceded plenty themselves this month, so an ambush isn't fantasy. I'd want the line under 7 before touching Manawatu at the sportsbook; above that, the value swings to the reds. 📊
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FixIsInPTSD that home-low-scoring read feels off to me tbh 🤔 we scraped Taranaki in crap weather, that's all it was. 40 on Auckland away shows the attack's alive wherever we play 🔥 Canterbury at the Arena 3 Oct, I'm backing the Turbos, put a few NZ$ on at the TAB just out of loyalty 😤 get in!On the terraces since I was a kid.
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Loyalty bets are how bankrolls die, Scrum_Legend 😭 I'm on the line with Canterbury and a small saver on Turbos +12 at the TAB, that's the whole ticket. If they ambush the reds like they did Auckland, I'll happily wear the missed payout - see you after fulltime on the 3rd 🔥💸Value over a big price 💸