Manawatu to make it three home wins on the bounce vs Canterbury on 3
Three home wins on the bounce? I'm on it. Manawatu at Central Energy Trust Arena have been solid, Taranaki edged 27:25 at home, and that 40:34 away smash-up in Auckland was no fluke, they went toe to toe with the big boys and landed it. Canterbury away form has always been the worry, but on home turf I'll take the green and whites straight out. The TAB line will probably be tight given Canterbury's name, so there's value over a big price here. Had NZ$20 on the head-to-head in my weekend multi and threw the odd try scorer on top. One lesson from last week, don't chase the margin band, take the win and move on. Bankroll is everything, so keep stakes sensible. 🔥💸
15 posts
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✓Josh is mostly right, though I'd flag one thing he skipped: the Waikato away trip on 19 September ended 27:36, so it's not a clean four-match tear — three wins from four, all the losses pattern intact. Context matters here. The home sample is the one I'd trust: Taranaki edged 27:25 at Central Energy Trust Arena on the 10th, and that was a grind, not a comfortable night. The 40:34 in Auckland on the 25th tells you the attack travels, but Canterbury away-to-home transitions are where I'd want a bigger sample before lumping on. I could be wrong, but I'd back them at home with a modest stake rather than treating the green and whites as a banker. Two points either way in that Taranaki game is the number that keeps me honest. 📊
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Waikato away loss or not, that trip came three days' travel either side of the Auckland smash. Away form means little here. Canterbury away from AMI is where the value sits, and I'd want the line before committing any of my weekend multi 💸. Backing them at the Arena, keen on it.Value over a big price 💸
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Lovely how you all skipped past the Waikato 27:36 thumping like it never happened 😏 TrueBeliever, remind me of your ROI before you lecture us on value? I'll wait for the fanboys to pile in on the three-home-wins fairy tale before I touch that line 🤡Any stat can be bent.
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Andy, if you'd kept your own table you'd notice the Waikato loss came with Taranaki and Auckland sandwiched either side - three wins from four with a three-point home edge and a 40-burger in Auckland reads like genuine form, small sample though. For me the nuance is home versus away: the Arena record is what the line will be priced on, and two of those three wins were away anyway. Happy to wait for the the bookie number, but I lean Manawatu on 3 October.Numbers > vibes.
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lol Andy acting like a 27:36 loss away to Waikato erases a 40-burger in Auckland 😱 tbh I was there watching the Taranaki game on the stream and we ground that one out, backs the green and whites at the Arena all day 💪 screaming at the TAB line before it tightens 🔥You don't abandon your own.
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I could be wrong, but the Taranaki game bothers me more than Andy realises. Two points at home against a side we should've handled comfortably - that's a margin of a single converted try, and it came with the crowd behind them. Josh's Auckland result reads well until you notice Auckland conceded 34 in reply; that's a shoot-out, not control, and shoot-outs are coin flips for spread purposes. So my honest ledger says: genuine form, yes, three from four, but the quality of wins is mixed and Canterbury away from AMI still travels with a better point differential across this window than Manawatu's run suggests. If the line is anywhere past about six I'd leave it alone, or wait for the TAB and take Manawatu straight win at the Arena if the price drifts. Context matters more here than the 40-burger does.Do the math before you argue.
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Chris, two points is two points mate, but we still ground it out 💪 and then hung 40 on Auckland a week later... how's that a worry? 🤬🔥One love, one side ❤️
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FullbackNut, look at the away split: two wins plus the Waikato loss, all three on the road. Chris's worry about home margins is fair, though. I could be wrong, but I'd want the TAB line first. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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Aye, everyone's ignoring the Waikato 27:36 thumping like it never happened 😱 backs have to show up v Canterbury or three on the bounce is a dream 💪🔥One love, one side ❤️
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Millie's got a point about Waikato, but here's what jumps out at me from my spreadsheet: Manawatu's scoring has held up everywhere - 29, 27, 27, 40 across the four games. While the defensive number swings wildly (36 conceded in Hamilton against 25 and 34 elsewhere). That inconsistency is the real question mark against Canterbury, not the home record. Two metric comparison for you: their attack is trending up week on week, their defence is basically a coin toss between good and leaky. Small sample though, four games tells you direction, nothing more. FrontRowFan's away split is worth reading twice, but I'd frame it differently: they've won the tight ones (Taranaki by two, Auckland by six) which suggests game management is there. If the TAB line on 3 October comes out inside a converted try, that's where my NZ$ goes. If Canterbury are priced as clear favourites, I'm waiting for team lists, no point buying a home three-peat before you know who's actually wearing the jersey.
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Canterbury fan here so obviously I'm not touching the green and whites to win 😤 but gotta say, that 40:34 in Auckland had me yelling at the telly. Here's my worry for Manawatu though, they've flown all over the show this month, Auckland then home to Canterbury three days into October. legs gone? our lot have the deeper squad and we always lift for this trip, you just know the red and blacks treat Palmy as a danger game 🔥 Sam's right re the spread being the only sensible punt. Canterbury by 6+ or nothing for me tbh. Memory of getting smoked at the Arena years back still stings, so I'm not calling it easy 💪
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Legs gone is the one worry I'd price in, Veteran, that Auckland away trip three days short of this one isn't nothing. Still, 40 points in Auckland speaks for itself, so my TAB ticket's a Manawatu head-to-head with the line kept small, plus a multi leg on the home win. See you after the match, one way or another 💸The line moves — catch it.
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@TrueFan4Life the 40 in Auckland came with 34 conceded, so "speaks for itself" only if you ignore half the scoreboard. Fatigue is exactly the sort of variable your spreadsheet punts can't price. Show me the numbers on how teams back up three days after flying north before I'd touch that head-to-head.