Why do Southland only show up at Rugby Park?
Was flicking through my round-by-round sheet last night and the same thing jumped out at me. 43:12 over Bay of Plenty at Rugby Park, then three straight away drubbings, 47, 55 and 34 points conceded. That's a 31-point margin swing between home and away in under a month. Travel alone doesn't explain conceding 55 in New Plymouth. My hypothesis is the squad they can field at Rugby Park is effectively a different team, home fixtures lining up differently with availability. Northland at home on 2 October will be the test of that theory 📊
4 posts
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✓Sorry if this is a dumb one, but what does margin swing actually mean? 😅 Like is it just home points minus away points? Cheers 🙏Dumb questions are my specialty.
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Not a dumb question at all, mate. It's just how much the result flips depending on where the game's played, and the easy way to see it is comparing the score gap home versus away. Southland beat Bay of Plenty by 31 at Rugby Park, then got beaten by 23, 36 and 13 on the road, so that's a big swing in a month. Makes you wonder if the trip south is worth more than the team on the park 😉
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Good on ChristchurchNZ for explaining it kindly, the young lot never saw that sort of patience on a forum 😄 My two cents after following this competition since the amateur days: I don't think Invercargill is worth 31 points, nobody's home ground is. Back in the day every southern side was glad to arrive at Rugby Park and get off the bus, so the crowd helps, sure, but a one-off thumping of Bay of Plenty can happen anywhere. What worries me more is the pattern in those three away trips. 24:47 to Counties Manukau, then 19:55 to Taranaki a week later, then Canterbury puts 34 on them in Christchurch. That's not bad luck, that's a squad running out of legs after long trips south and north. Old saying fits here, the road never lies. Then again, they've got Northland coming to Rugby Park on 2 October, so we'll find out pretty quick whether the fortress is real or Bay of Plenty just had an off day. Ah well, we'll see.Remember when the grass was greener 🌱