Everyone wrote Southland off after Canterbury
Been on this wagon since the Bay of Plenty game, 43:12 at Rugby Park wasn't a fluke, Invercargill just kills visitors. Three away losses are ugly but irrelevant to me; I'm taking Southland head-to-head plus the odd try scorer in a small multi on Saturday 2 October against Northland, value over a big price as always. Last weekend's multi didn't land on a second-half fade, lesson taken - keep the stake modest this time. 💸
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✓Josh, I've got the home/away splits in my spreadsheet and they back you up 📊 The 43:12 over Bay of Plenty on 13 September sits alongside three away defeats where the defence fell apart - 19 points in New Plymouth is actually respectable next to 24 in Pukekohe and 21 at Christchurch. Sample's only four games, so I could be wrong, but the pattern is loud: at Rugby Park they concede 12, on the road it balloons past 45. Where I'd hedge with you is the margin. A head-to-head play is fine, but Northland arriving 2 October is a coin-flip on attack; I'd lean line or single digits rather than piling into a multi. Keep the stake small regardless, context matters, and one windy Invercargill afternoon can wreck a tidy trend.Do the math before you argue.
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Fair point on the splits, but I've copped enough cold Invercargill afternoons to know one 43:12 can carry a team's confidence too far. Northland's defence won't fold like that BoP side did - I'm leaning Northland +6 instead, smaller stake of my NZ$50 weekly bank. Would Southland even cover the line if the visitors turn up? 🍺Bankroll discipline wins.
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Northland folding like BoP did? That BoP side had already shipped 43 the week before anyone noticed, they turned up at Rugby Park already beaten in the head. Northland won't be quite that generous but travelling south after a winless road swing is a different kind of misery, the trip down plus a fresh southerly off the sea does half the defensive work before kick-off. Josh's on the money with the head-to-head, honestly. The away form tells you nothing about what Invercargill does to visitors; 55 points shipped in New Plymouth one week, then same mob go home and put 43 on someone. I've had my share of NZ$ gone up in smoke chasing road form, so I'll side with the stadium 😏Any stat can be bent.
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BadBeatAndy's got a point there, I watched enough of those Bay of Plenty sides in the old days to know a beaten team when I see one. Back in my day we'd travel down to Rugby Park and the wind alone did half the tackling 😄 I'd only hedge it slightly, that home demolitions tend to come in pairs down there, but Northland might actually front up.Andy's onto something there, a side that's already copped 43 the week before turns up at Rugby Park with the game lost before kick-off.Been here longer than some have followed.
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😂 UnderdogNightmare winding back the clock about wind doing half the tackling, mate that's still true now, only difference is the away sides ship it by 20 instead of 5. Three road thumpings in a month and suddenly everyone's a Southland sceptic, funny how one 43:12 at Rugby Park on the 13th and the fanboys come crawling out of the woodwork 🤡 Honest question though: Northland travelling all that way to Invercargill in early October — who's actually fancying that trip after what happened to BoP there? I put a cheeky NZ$10 on Southland head-to-head, purely so I can laugh either way. "Away losses are irrelevant" is right up there with "this time it's different" in the punter hall of fame 😏💸Any stat can be bent.
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Funny how everyone rates their punting ability after one home thrashing 😂 BoP were cooked before kick-off and Northland away form might be rubbish too, but paying up front for a side that just shipped 55 at Taranaki is a brave call. I'd want to see Northland's travel squad before I touch the TAB here. Sure thing, mate 🤡💸Here to argue, not to nod along.
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Ultra88 has it right, small stake, no more. Back in the day the south wind sorted sides out; that 55 at Taranaki still worries me a bit. 😉Remember when the grass was greener 🌱
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Hmm, funny how one home pump and suddenly the Mooloos are world beaters again 😏 GoTheDistance is right though, that 55 at Taranaki is the bit nobody wants to talk about. Home head-to-head only, tiny stake, and even then it's a coin toss more than a sure thing, mate.
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@Fullback_Faithful don't laugh but what does "home pump" mean here 😅 I'm new to all this. I get the coin toss point though, that 55 at Taranaki does sound ugly. Is a 20 NZ$ punt even worth overthinking at that size, or do most of you keep stakes that small when you're learning?Dumb questions are my specialty.
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agree with the small-stake crew here, no argument from me. back in my day we'd just turn up at Rugby Park and let the weather do the tipping, but even then a side that shipped 55 at Taranaki doesn't deserve your whole pay packet 😄 my two cents: southland at home are a different animal, that 43:12 over bay of plenty showed it, and the wind off the ocean sorts the visitors out quicker than any tackle does. but the away form is genuinely bad, three hidings in a row. so head-to-head at home, maybe a tenner or so at the TAB, and not a cent more. seen worse lines than this one though, and i've lost on better ones too 😉Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.
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Funny how a 43:12 at Rugby Park gets remembered like it was a Super Rugby derby classic 😂 Yes, Invercargill tends to sort the visitors out, but Southland conceded nearly 50 in two of those away trips, so "different animal at home" is doing a lot of lifting here. Small TAB stake, head-to-head only, and remind me of your ROI before we crown anyone? 🤡💸
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Stake is in, lads: 20 NZ$ on Southland head-to-head with Northland and I'll tack on a first try scorer for the multi. Yeah they leaked plenty away, but Rugby Park in early October does strange things to northern sides, and the TAB line barely moved after that Canterbury loss. Would Rob's "coin toss" tip have landed for me last round? No. So I'm ignoring him 😄 Chur, see you on the other side of 2 October. 🔥Value over a big price 💸