Southland's home form is the only thing keeping them honest
Rugby Park has carried them all season, so 2 October I'm backing Southland by 1-12 at home, at Canterbury and Taranaki the defence fell apart, but that 43:12 over Bay of Plenty tells you what they can do with the crowd behind them. I'd put NZ$20 on the head-to-head in a multi rather than chasing the line, mate. 💸
16 posts
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✓Rugby Park has carried them all season, so 2 October I'm backing Southland by 1-12 at home, at Canterbury and Taranaki the defence fell apart, but that 43:12 over Bay of Plenty tells you what they can do with the crowd b…1-12 is thin alright, I'm on Northland +12.5 instead, Southland have leaked 130 in three away trips, that defence doesn't fix itself at home. 💸Value over a big price 💸
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Home/away split here is extreme: 43-12 at Rugby Park, then three away losses with 130 points conceded. I could be wrong, but 1-12 feels thin, I'd want the market paying for Northland's travel too.Do the math before you argue.
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Chloe taking a stand against the defence after backing the other side of the same coin last week, that's cute 😂 Remind me of your ROI on these "obvious" fades? They shipped 130 on the road and then put 43 on Bay of Plenty at Rugby Park, travel's the whole story here. Backing Northland +12.5 with that logic is a lottery, not sport 🤡Any stat can be bent.
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Depends how you count it, that 43:12 flatters Southland more than Rugby Park does. My table has Bay of Plenty conceding freely that week, so I'd treat it as an outlier, and the 36.5 per match shipped away reads more like a flat defence than a travel problem. On 2 October I'd want Northland plus the start, though Chloe's +12.5 is a small sample of a line, I'd only trust it above the dozen.Numbers > vibes.
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BadBeatKing, mate, 130 points shipped away isn't an outlier 😱 you don't concede like that by accident. That BoP game? Bay of Plenty had an off week, our lot never make it easy 💪One love, one side ❤️
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I could be wrong, but I keep coming back to the fact that Southland's only decent sample is one home game against a side having a bad week, and BadBeatKing's point about BoP conceding freely stacks up with what I charted too. If Rugby Park were genuinely worth a 12-point swing on its own, you'd expect closer away losses, not 34, 55 and 47, that's a defensive problem travelling with them. I'm with Chloe on Northland +12.5, happy to take the margin of safety rather than argue about crowd effect.
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NickDiehard, mate, one home game against a wobbling BoP and everyone's ready to crown Rugby Park a fortress? 😂 130 points shipped in three away trips says the defence is toast full stop. I'd want Northland + anything, taking the points every day of the week 💪You don't abandon your own.
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I'd pump the brakes on both camps here, because one home game is a rubbish sample and 130 points away is equally lopsided the other way. The honest answer is we've got four matches and none of them cleanly isolate home advantage. My spreadsheet has the away trips stacked against sides sitting higher on the ladder, so part of that defensive mess is opponent quality, context matters. I could be wrong, but I suspect Rugby Park helps more against mid-table sides like Northland than the market's line assumes. Where I land: I'd take Southland on the line at home only if it's inside 12, and I'd want a small stake, maybe NZ$20 of my weekly NZ$100 bankroll, nothing brave. A gutting defence shipping 30-plus a week doesn't get fixed by crowd noise, but Northland aren't so far clear on the table that the margin should be double digits. Mean little lean to the home side, but hedge thinking: if the line creeps past 12, the value flips to the visitors. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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Four games and nobody's changed their mind 😂 FrontRowFan finally said it. I'm still backing us at Rugby Park, we go through thick and thin there 🔥
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FrontRowFan nails the core problem, and I'd push it further: one home win against a BoP side that was shipping points to everyone tells us almost nothing either way. If you overlay the away numbers - 19 at Taranaki, 24 at Counties Manukau, 21 at Canterbury - the base rate is ugly. There's a nuance here though: whoever prices the Southland line at Rugby Park is essentially betting the venue effect outweighs a defence leaking at that rate, and four games is far too thin a sample to price that. I'd need a bigger sample before trusting any margin here.
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Sorry FrontRowFan but four games is all we've got and two of them point the same way 😂 FixIsIn says BoP were shipping points to everyone, mate, someone still had to put 43 on them, and Southland did it without leaving Invercargill 🤷 130 away is ugly as sin yeah, but the Taranaki game was a write-off after halftime, ah well, nowt to do. Gimme Southland 1-12 and I'll happily put $20 on it 🔥You don't abandon your own.
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LauraReds, nah mate, don't buy the travel angle — everyone flies or drives up from Auckland way fresh, it's Southland who've done the miles all month 😅 One decent home win and suddenly the line's got us believing again? Taranaki put 55 on them... 55!! I'm steering well clear of this one, my NZ$ stays in my pocket 🤬One love, one side ❤️
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LauraReds, nah mate, don't buy the travel angle — everyone flies or drives up from Auckland way fresh, it's Southland who've done the miles all month 😅 One decent home win and suddenly the line's got us believing again? …@FullbackNut the 55 stung worse than my Monday shift at the depot tbf 😂 but to be fair Taranaki were putting 50+ on half the comp that season. TouchlineUltra dropping NZ$20 on Southland 1-12 is braver than me, I watched them defend away from Rugby Park and nearly put my remote through the telly 🍿Only serious one here — barely.
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Agree with FullbackNut, the travel angle's dead. Northland fly in fresh while Southland have been racking up the miles. But I'll take the home side anyway, just with my eyes open. Put $20 on Southland 1-12 at Rugby Park, stuck it in a multi with the first try scorer and another NPC game that night. 43:12 over Bay of Plenty showed what they can do with the crowd behind them, and away from Invercargill they've been hopeless. But 55 points shipped at Taranaki makes me nervous. If the line moves much past double digits before kickoff I'm out. See you all after the match, one way or another 💸Up one week, down the next. Classic.