Southland vs Northland at Rugby Park on 2 October - who wins?
Put me down for Southland here. They only look a side when Rugby Park's under their feet - that 43:12 pump of Bay of Plenty on 13 Sep was the one clean form line, while the three away trips (Canterbury 34-21, Taranaki 55-19, Counties 47-24) were all ugly. Keen on the TAB head-to-head at whatever price the sportsbook is offering, and I'll likely bolt the odd try scorer on. 💸
16 posts
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✓Put me down for Southland here. They only look a side when Rugby Park's under their feet - that 43:12 pump of Bay of Plenty on 13 Sep was the one clean form line, while the three away trips (Canterbury 34-21, Taranaki 55…Would the BoP rout have landed if it was away though, mate? I'm taking Northland at the line here, one home blowout beats three road pumpings for me. 😭Value over a big price 💸
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Agree with StandsGuy23, and the split in the numbers backs him up. I keep my own table each round, and Southland's September reads like two different sides: at Rugby Park they put 43 on Bay of Plenty and conceded 12, while on the road they leaked 34, 55 and 47 across Canterbury, Taranaki and Counties Manukau. That's an average of 45 points allowed away from home against about 12 at home. Venue swing that size is the whole ball game here, I could be wrong, but I'd weight it heavily. One caution for anyone pricing this up before putting NZ$ on at the TAB: Northland haven't appeared anywhere in Southland's recent sample, so we've got no form line on them at all. Two straight losses to Taranaki and Canterbury might mean Southland's defence is just soft generally, and the BoP result could be a one-off against a poor travelling side.Do the math before you argue.
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Lucy, didn't you back Taranaki heavy last week? Sit that one out and let actual punters talk 😂 Northland at the line against a side that hung 43 on BoP at Rugby Park. Brave call 🤡Here to argue, not to nod along.
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Lucy's got a point tbh, one home romp vs three hidings isn't exactly form you trust 😅 but mates, Rugby Park under lights hits different, ask BoP. Local boys gonna lift again 2 Oct, backing them all day 💪🔥You don't abandon your own.
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Biggest worry for me isn't Southland's road record. It's that everyone here is pricing them off one sample. I could be wrong, but a single 43:12 against Bay of Plenty is a thin basis for a line call, especially when we've got nothing in this thread on Northland's form at all. One clean home win tells you Rugby Park suits them; it doesn't tell you how they match up on the wing or at the breakdown against an unknown quantity. That said, the way I'd frame it for the punters arguing over Lucy's point: aggregate the September scores and Southland went +31 at home and minus double digits on the road across three trips, which is a massive venue split even allowing for Canterbury and Taranaki being genuinely good sides. If the TAB has Southland inside a converted try at Rugby Park on 2 October, that's worth a modest play, quarter of your usual stake, nothing heroic. If Northland's priced to beat them outright on neutral-ish form assumptions, the value flips the other way.
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Nick's got a fair point tbh, one home hammering vs three hidings is thin ice 😅 but mates, Invercargill under lights on 2 Oct hits different… BoP fans would tell you that. Lucy backing Northland after riding Taranaki last week? 🤡 stay off the TAB for a bit, love 🔥One love, one side ❤️
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NickDiehard's got the sharpest post in here and it deserves a proper answer rather than the clown emojis. Yes, one 43:12 is a thin sample, nobody's arguing that. But compare what we actually have: Southland's three losses were all away, and the margin pattern is telling. 21:34 at Canterbury is competitive-ish, 24:47 at Counties is a blowout, but the two data points at Rugby Park in this set (43:12 and only one home game admittedly, small sample though) sit in a different band entirely. Home/away splits matter more in the NPC than most punters price in, travel south is a real factor and Northland's squad rotation on the road is historically poor, that's a nuance the line usually underweights. Where I'd push back on the home-crowd romantics: I wouldn't touch Southland at a short price.
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Everyone keeps saying thin sample but Rugby Park's a real edge ffs, ask BoP 😤 going down 43:12 there ain't luck. Southland 2 Oct, backing them all day 🔥Heart with the team, head on pause.
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Anyone actually looked at the travel? three away games, and Invercargill's the longest trip in the comp for most sides. Northland copping that flight south in early October is its own handicap nobody's priced. Nick's right that one 43:12 is a small sample though, so I'd want the line under a few points before touching it at the TAB. Lean Southland, but it's the venue doing the arguing, more than the form. 📊Numbers > vibes.
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Anyone actually looked at the travel? three away games, and Invercargill's the longest trip in the comp for most sides. Northland copping that flight south in early October is its own handicap nobody's priced. Nick's rig…@BadBeatKing I did a work trip to Invercargill once, flew out of Whangārei all day and still felt wrecked. If it knackers an IT guy, imagine a front rower 🤣
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@DaveJandal 😂 nah that's sweet as, half the boys roll in from Auckland and Whangārei trips wrecked anyway. Front rower getting shoved around on cooked legs, now THAT is scary... but six days at home should fix the worst of it 💪 backing our lot, they never make it easy eh 🔥You don't abandon your own.
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Travel argument's cute until you remember Canterbury just pumped us 34-21 DOWN THERE 😱 Northland at Rugby Park on 2 Oct? I'm nervous more than keen tbh 🤬One love, one side ❤️
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Millie's got a point but the Canterbury loss doesn't bother me much, they're a different animal to Northland. What I keep coming back to is the turnaround time: Southland had a shorter week after Taranaki away, and on 2 October they'll have had the full six days at home, no travel. Northland landing in Invercargill off a long haul in early-October southerlies, I'd take Southland and if the line is anywhere near single digits, that's my play at the TAB. I could be wrong, but the home split here looks real to me.Do the math before you argue.
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FrontRow's right about the six-day turnaround, that's the bit I keep landing on too. Home game after three straight weeks of airports and bus trips - Canterbury's a different beast, but Northland shouldn't be pumping anyone at Rugby Park. So my ticket's done: head-to-head Southland was too skinny by itself so I've put them with -6.5 on the line, plus a crack at the odd try scorer in the multi. Small stake, NZ$20, if the line's already drifted further I'm not chasing it. The BoP result is the only form line I trust, the rest of the month's been grim reading 💸 Land it and I'm having a quiet one at the pub Friday night. Didn't land and I'll be the sad b*stard in the back of a cab ranting about first-phase defence 😭 See you all after fulltime on 2 Oct 🍺Bankroll discipline wins.
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FrontRow's right about the six-day turnaround, that's the bit I keep landing on too. Home game after three straight weeks of airports and bus trips - Canterbury's a different beast, but Northland shouldn't be pumping any…@StatHeadAnalyst yeah the six days at home is massive, you just know the boys will be cooked after all that travel... but Northland up front still scares me a bit tbh, if our pack gets shoved round early none of the rest matters 😱 Cautiously keen, eh, nowt to do but back them 💪🔥