Can Southland bounce back against Northland after three straight
I backed them at home to Bay of Plenty at 43:12 and thought the season was alive. Then three straight beats, and Taranaki at 19:55 hurt the most because I'd actually taken the Stags +8 that week. Didn't land, lesson filed away.
For October 2 at Rugby Park: they're at home, which is the only thing keeping me interested. Northland's no gimme though, so I'll keep it modest - Southland by 7, something like 29:22, and I'm taking the line rather than the head-to-head. Safer payout structure and my bankroll has taken enough of a hiding this month. Put it in your TAB multis if you believe it more than I do - I'm only chancing a small leg here myself. 💸
12 posts
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✓Josh, that +8 against Taranaki was always a trap, they'd just conceded 47 to Counties Manukau the week before, so the defensive trend was already screaming. I could be wrong, but the sample since the Bay of Plenty win is three matches, 64 points conceded to 21 scored per my table; home comfort at Rugby Park might shave that, yet Northland will fancy it. I'd wait on the line rather than back Southland straight up.Do the math before you argue.
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Hard to call that +8 a trap when everyone was on it. The line moved the other way by Friday, which usually means sharp money fancied the Stags. I went the other way and still got burnt taking Taranaki -13.5, so we all filed a lesson that week. My read for October 2: that 43:12 over Bay of Plenty wasn't a fluke, it was at Rugby Park with the forwards going forward. Since then they've been away three times. Home turf changes everything for me, so I'm backing them to bounce back against Northland, Stags by 6, say 27:21. Won't touch the try scorer this week, too much of a lottery after three hidings. Small stake only, bankroll is everything.The line moves — catch it.
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Love how everyone here is suddenly a defensive trends expert 😂 TrueFan, you took Taranaki -13.5 and got smoked too, so whose lesson was filed exactly? 🤡 My line: Stags 27, Northland 24.Here to argue, not to nod along.
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FrontRowFan has half the story but the sequencing matters more than anyone's flagged yet. I keep a round-by-round table, and the Stags' pattern is a home/away split that's almost comedic: 43:12 at Rugby Park against Bay of Plenty, then 24, 19 and 21 points conceded in trip after trip. It's not that simple to call it just a defensive collapse though - 55 points shipped to Taranaki skews every trend line in the sample, so three data points and one outlier. I could be wrong, but Invercargill in early October, cold southerly off the plains, home crowd after a month of grief... that's worth something. My pick: Southland 28, Northland 22. If the line comes up around Stags -4 or so I'd actually lean the other way, because Northland away losses tend to be narrow rather than blowouts. Small stake only, this is a coin flip dressed as a trend. 📊
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Nick, "comedic" is generous, that defence was embarrassing 😂 but I'm with RobbedAgain, home turf fixes moods. Stags 30, Northland 22, get in! 💪🔥One love, one side ❤️
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I'd temper the optimism a bit. Millie, home turf fixed moods once, 13 September - and then the trip south of the Strait went wrong three weeks running. One nuance I keep in my table: the Stags scored 43 against Bay of Plenty at Rugby Park, then 24, 19 and 21 in the next three. That's a slide of five-plus points a week on attack, which is a trend, not noise. I could be wrong, but three straight losses averaging 30+ conceded doesn't vanish because the bus stops in Invercargill this time. Northland are no Canterbury either, so a bounce is possible. My line: Southland 26, Northland 22, and I'd only touch the Stags if the margin stays under six. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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Everyone's table-watching like Rugby Park does the tackling 😂 Bay of Plenty aren't Taranaki, lads. My line: Stags 26, Northland 25. Through thick and thin 🐎🔥You don't abandon your own.
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Gary's onto something actually, my split says the 43 was BoP shipping tries late, not Stags dominance. Take Northland +4 at the TAB, mate.
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FixIsIn, mate, BoP shipping tries late?? I was at that game, Sat out on the bank, we were up and swinging from kickoff, that 43 was earned, no debate 🤬 Ah well, nowt to do if you weren't there. Gary's right though, Rugby Park doesn't tackle but Northland have to come south and deal with the cold and a crowd that'll ride them all night. Defence has been leaky as anything since, three weeks of watching sides run through us 😱 but October 2 is the get-out-of-jail card. Taking the Stags by 4ish on my multi, couple NZ$ on it, heart over head tbh 💪🔥You don't abandon your own.
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Loaded up small on Stags +4 in the multi, threw a fiver on the odd try scorer too. 21:34 to Canterbury says the defence is leaking, but home at Rugby Park, I'll pay to find out. See you after the match 💸Bankroll discipline wins.
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Took Northland +4 in the multi myself, Stags defence leaking late scares me. Kept it small NZ$ anyway. See you all Saturday 🔥Up one week, down the next. Classic.