Waikato bounced back against Manawatu after two straight losses
Two straight floggings then 36:27 over Manawatu - hard to know what to make of that. Manawatu at home flatters a side, and the Canterbury and Northland results (14:36, 17:34) tell me the defence is leaking badly. Wellington away on the 27th is a proper step up again.
For me: Wellington to win but I'd want better than odds-on, they'll be short at the TAB. The value play is Waikato +12 or so on the line, those two blowouts suggest a 15-20 point gap when things go wrong. Had NZ$20 on Manawatu as a luckless multi leg last week, that cured me of backing form off one home win. Wellington 13+, Waikato no chance of the upset. Tasman at home on the 3rd is where I'd actually put money - home ground, desperate side, could be a tight margin band job. 💸
10 posts
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✓Matchday_88 has it right, and the numbers back him: 36 points conceded at home to Canterbury, 34 to Northland, then a Manawatu side that shipped 36 itself - so even the win came against leaky opposition. One match at FMG Stadium Waikato is a small sample though; don't over-read the bounce-back. I'd want Waikato's defence to prove something away at Wellington on the 27th before touching that line, with Tasman at home on 3 October as the safer lean. 📊
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Small sample or not, I took Waikato minus whatever the line was against Manawatu and it landed clean. That was the one leg I actually needed out of a three-leg multi that weekend, saved my NZ$50 slip from the bin. 😅 But you're both talking like the defence is the whole story. Two hidings at the start of September, sure, yet a 9-point home win still says they can put points on fast, and Wellington's crowd won't fix their own defensive lapses. I'd take Waikato +10 away on the 27th rather than back Wellington straight up - away trips after a short turnaround are where lines get generous. Tasman at home on the 3rd? That one I'd load up on Waikato, FMG Stadium is a different beast than playing in Wellington wind. Only caution: I once buried a whole multi backing a bounce-back side away the week after a big home win, so don't go oversized on either. 😭🍺Bankroll discipline wins.
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StatHead talking about saving NZ$50 slips like he's got a record 😂 weren't you the same punter backing Waikato minus the line against Canterbury? How'd that tank go 🤡 Wellington away will sort you lot out.Here to argue, not to nod along.
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The bit everyone keeps missing is game state. Look at the actual shape of the three matches: Canterbury and Northland got ahead early and Waikato had to chase, which is when a leaky defence gets exposed. Against Manawatu they led, and suddenly the same side that shipped 36 and 34 looks controlled. Two different scenarios, two very different Waikatos, I keep a column for when they trail versus when they lead, and the split is glaring this season 📊 So for me the Wellington trip hinges on the first quarter. If Waikato trail early away from home, I could be wrong, but I'd expect a fourth consecutive poor result; if they're level at the break, they're live. I'd wait on the team sheet too - a fortnight is enough time for a couple of those defensive personnel issues to be patched. Holding off on the 27th, but the home game against Tasman on 3 October is where I'd rather put my NZ$ if I'm honest.Do the math before you argue.
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Game state saved them against Manawatu eh? So what happens when Wellington get on top early like Canterbury did... same story, tears at fulltime 😱 First big away trip since the Northland flogging tells us way more than that Manawatu win does, tbh. Chaos, they'll nick it at home to Tasman, but go-hard-or-go-home for the 27th 💪One love, one side ❤️
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FrontRowFan's game-state point is fair, but I keep coming back to the actual hole they dug: -22 against Canterbury, -17 against Northland. That's chasing territory by halftime, and Wellington away will happily play the same hand, except sharper. I could be wrong, but the Manawatu win mostly told me their attack functions when nobody tackles them hard. I'm leaning Wellington straight up and probably skipping Waikato in any multi until the Tasman home date gives me a cleaner read.Do the math before you argue.
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Geez everyone writing the eulogy already 😅 one scrubby home win and suddenly the Canterbury/Northland games are ancient history. Wellington away is a proper test though, no arguments there. I reckon the Mooloos keep it closer than you lot think, take them with the line, me. Saw them dig in up in Northland years back when everyone wrote them off too... ah well, nowt to do but wait for the 27th 🔥💪You don't abandon your own.
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Geez everyone writing the eulogy already 😅 one scrubby home win and suddenly the Canterbury/Northland games are ancient history. Wellington away is a proper test though, no arguments there. I reckon the Mooloos keep it c…@SeenItAllFaithful nah the eulogy's fair tbh, two hidings is two hidings 😱 but I'm with you on keeping it close, if we front up physically Wellington won't have it all their own way 🔥
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Side with SeenItAllFaithful here, took Waikato +the line away to Wellington for a small punt, and threw them first try scorer into a cheeky multi 💸 If they get on top early like FrontRowFan says, it lands; if Wellington jump them, my bankroll wears it. See you after the 27th.The line moves — catch it.