Waikato at home to Tasman on 3 October, who actually wins this?
That Canterbury and Northland hiding they copped was ugly, but the Manawatu game tells me the Mooloo turn up at home. I'm on Waikato to win at the TAB, maybe a small bet on the 1-12 margin band too. That's where these tight NPC games usually land. Threw NZ$20 on it last night before the line moves. Wouldn't touch Tasman at any short price away from home, their away form this season doesn't justify it. Keen to see if anyone's got a better angle on the line.
18 posts
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✓I keep a round-by-round table and the split is stark: 36 points at home to Manawatu, then 14 and 17 on the road against Canterbury and Northland. Three matches is a thin sample, so I could be wrong, but the home/away gap looks real rather than noise. If the 1-12 band is priced anywhere near even money, that's the value side of it - Waikato at FMG Stadium, tight margin. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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Katie88, remind me of your ROI again? Last time you backed against Mooloo at FMG you cried all week 😂 Tasman's no bogey side, NZ$20 says they turn up at home 🤡Show me your ROI first 😏
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Three games is a small sample though, and the order matters as much as the venue, those hidings came a fortnight apart, then the Manawatu win showed they adjusted. I'd side with SeenItAll on the home case, but I'd want to see what happens away to Wellington on 27 September before touching the line; if they even compete in Wellington, the Tasman price at the book will be shorter than it should be by 3 October. Waiting one more round costs nothing and tells you which Mooloo is real.Numbers > vibes.
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StatsHead talking about "adjusted" like a fortnight fixes a 36-point hiding 😂 Tasman at home with the Mooloo faithful behind them? they'll turn up, you just know 🔥💪
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BadBeatKing's got the order-of-results point right, and I could be wrong, but the sequencing matters more than the raw margins: the Canterbury and Northland losses came off short turnarounds against sides that either dominated up front or ran them ragged, while the Manawatu win showed what they look like with a week to reset. Tasman away to Wellington first, then travelling to Hamilton on six days' rest - I'd want to see how the Mooloo pack scrums against a more physical side before touching the 1-12 band. My NZ$ stays in the pocket until the Wellington game tells us something. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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"Adjusted" after two hidings? Seen that movie before, Mooloo have burned me at FMG too many times 😅 my NZ$20 is staying in my pocket this round 🤬One love, one side ❤️
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Two metrics worth splitting here: home vs away scoring, and they're poles apart this season. That home/away gap is doing more work in my table than the sequencing. Lean Waikato, small stakes though. N of 3 is tiny.
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"Adjusted tables" with n of 3?? 😂 mate I watched Northland run us ragged up in Whangārei, no spreadsheet fixes that. Home ground only reason I'd risk a fiver tbh 🤬One love, one side ❤️
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The split nobody's mentioned yet: Tasman away at FMG isn't a fortress-raiding trip for them the way Wellington away will be for Waikato a week earlier - this is the softer fixture of Waikato's two remaining, which shapes how I'd price it. I keep my own splits by venue, and while three games is nothing statistically, the pattern is at least consistent in direction: whatever's broken up front away from Hamilton hasn't shown up at home, where they managed a proper scoring effort against Manawatu. I could be wrong, but I'd back SeenItAll's read here, Waikato win, and if you want value the margin band beats the straight result because the bookies will have baked the hidings into the line. My own stake stays modest though; a side that lost 17:34 anywhere in All Blacks doesn't earn a full-size bet off one home win. Maybe NZ$25-30 across the two markets, call it instinct tax. Anyone actually know what Tasman's travel form looks like this season? That'd settle it faster than another table.
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Softer fixture?? Tasman wont roll over cos you priced it on a spreadsheet mate 😤 which Mooloo side turns up is the whole point, two hidings say panic tbh 🤬You don't abandon your own.
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The only sample worth anything splits home from away: their one win this month came at FMG, both hidings were on the road, so going to Hamilton changes the inputs entirely. That said, n of 1 is a joke of a sample and Canterbury went there and hung 36 on them three weeks ago - the fortress isn't exactly proven. I'd take Waikato only if the TAB line stays inside about a converted try; anything fatter and it's a pass.Sample first, conclusions after.
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Heart says Mooloo, wallet says small stake only - 20 on the win plus the 1-12 band, nothing silly. See you all after fulltime 💸Value over a big price 💸
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@TrueBeliever_HQ don't laugh, guys, but what does the 1-12 band actually mean? Like Waikato win by 12 or less? 🤔 I only put my first couple of dollars through the TAB last weekend and it all went wrong haha. Small stake sounds smart though, might copy you 😅New here, soaking it up.
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I'm new here so go easy on me, but does FMG actually help Waikato much? Their crowd feels quiet lately 😅 keen to see if home ground fixes the panic.Learning from the veterans, go easy 🙏
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@Josh_Auckland yep, Waikato by 12 or less. Start tiny like that, I blew way more than $20 learning bands the hard way 😭Bankroll discipline wins.