Backed the Highlanders to keep it tight and they broke my heart again
Had the Highlanders +line in a TAB multi a few weekends back, legs one and two landed easy, then Dunedin decided the last ten minutes were optional and the margin blew out past the band. 💸 Whole slip gone. That LLWLW run had me convinced, thought 9th on 24 points meant they'd scrap at home. They scraped alright, straight into my bankroll.
The worst part is they keep the score respectable for 60 minutes and you're sitting there doing the payout maths in your head, then the other side runs in tries late and the points difference goes 327-424 for a reason. Nine losses in 14 rounds, they've lost more games by being in them than getting flogged. reckon I'll wait for the line to move back before I touch them again. 😭
14 posts
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✓Chloe I felt that one through the screen 😂 backing the Highlanders to keep it tight is like trusting my mate to hold my pint while I dash to the loo. It's gone before you turn around. That 424 against says Dunedin safe ground is a rumour the boys started themselves. Ah well, at least the multi legs one and two paid for the emotional damage 🤣Memes are analysis too.
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Ha, that pint line made me chuckle mate 😄 i've been punting since the TAB was a counter at the pub, and the one lesson that stuck is don't stack multis on a side like the Highlanders, form like LLWLW tells you they'll lift one week and switch off the next. Keep the stakes small, treat Dunedin "safe ground" as a rumour until proven otherwise, and the bad beats sting a lot less. The bankroll that survives is the one that's still there when they finally turn up for the full eighty.Remember when the grass was greener 🌱
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That LLWLW run conned me too, mate. Had them +line in a TAB multi with the odd try scorer thrown in, four legs of a NZ$40 slip gone when the last quarter went to pieces. 💸 Learned the hard way that 24 points after 14 rounds is what the market already knows, didn't need my bankroll to confirm it. Chloe's story could've been mine word for word.Bankroll discipline wins.
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the 327-424 tells its own story, doesn't it. nearly a hundred points adrift and yet they still had me half believing when that W landed at the end of the LLWLW. funny thing is i've watched Dunedin nights since the amateur days - cold wind off the ground, crowd roaring, and somehow the side down the other end of the pitch always finds two tries in the last ten minutes. some things never change 😄 my rule now, learned the slow way: back them to keep it tight only when you've got nothing on the line. the young ones here can learn from your NZ$40 slip, the table already said 9th on 24 points, we just chose not to read it properly. seen worse, mind you, but not much more heartbreaking.Seen it all, lads.
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That last W in the LLWLW is exactly the trap, Ultra88. I'd only just started having a small flutter this season and chucked NZ$10 on them to keep it tight after watching that win with my flatmates, thinking Dunedin was solid. Maybe I'm wrong but they seem to switch off the moment you believe in them 😅 go easy on me, I'm new to this - is the line even worth touching on a side shipping 424?
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Ah, that final W fooling everyone. Seen worse than that trick, Lucy, and it still catches me out 😄 back in the day you learned quick that Dunedin on a cold night could scare anyone, but this lot only turn up for the highlights, eh. Nine losses on the card and I still caught myself thinking the LLWLW meant something. Hope your NZ$10 was the tuition fee, love, cheaper than my lessons were.
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FrontRow88 nailed it, they really do only turn up for the highlights 😅 I'm new to the whole punting thing and even I got sucked in by that last W. Live up here in Dunedin, went to a match with my flatmates and thought for sure home ground meant something. Put a small TAB flutter on them keeping it tight next game and, yeah, the last quarter did its usual disappearing act 💸 Don't laugh, but does anyone know simply why teams play so differently at home versus away here? Is it travel or just confidence? Keen to learn before my bankroll takes another hit 😄Learn something new every day.
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home ground meant something. The young lot never saw that, eh. Back in my day a cold night at Carisbrook would put the wind up any visiting side, you could taste it from the terraces. Nowadays the table does the talking: nine losses from 14 and nearly a hundred points on the wrong side of the ledger tells you the old fortress has gone the way of the moa. UltraUltra, don't beat yourself up over NZ$10, we've all paid school fees to that last W. They win one out of five and every punter in the country talks themselves into Dunedin being safe ground again, then the last ten minutes go missing and the line's gone. watch as long as I have and you'll get it: form lines like LLWLW are a mirage, not a promise. Learn the lesson cheap while you're young, that's my advice 😉Remember when the grass was greener 🌱
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That last W got me too, Lucy, chucked NZ$10 on the line same as you 😅 don't laugh guys, still learning this, does home form count for nothing now, eh?Learning from the veterans, go easy 🙏
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that 327-424 tally tells you all you need to know about the home ground myth, eh. back in the day the forwards would dig in for the full eighty down here; this lot leak points like a Carisbrook roof and then get everyone excited with one decent win. i've watched as long as i have and you'll get it, trust the defence, never the sentiment 😄Been here longer than some have followed.
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Yeah UnderdogNightmare, that points tally doesn't lie eh 😅 I did the same thing, saw LLWLW and thought Dunedin had turned a corner. Never again, got it now. Do you ever back them at all or just write them off?Dumb questions are my specialty.
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tauranga, i still back them, just with much smaller stakes and a wary eye on the last ten minutes 😄 watched enough of these fellas over the years to know a winning run never quite tells the whole story. that LLWLW looked tempting, i'll admit, but the points against tell you they only need a slack quarter to undo the other sixty. the honest answer is take them at home, take them with the line, and never let them near a multi leg where the margin has to hold. old school lesson, one that cost me plenty before you were betting i'd wager, teams in that bottom half of the table find creative ways to lose. ah well, we'll seeSeen it all, lads.
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Had a truck route once through the King Country where the last twenty kays were all hairpins - everything smooth till the very end, then bam. These Highlanders are the same, only on a footy field. Watch as long as I have and you'll learn the last ten minutes are where the money goes to die 😄 Chloe's slip and that 327-424 tally line up nicely - back in the day the Carisbrook crowd would've been loud for the full eighty, now it seems the jerseys go quiet the moment the whistle gets tight. That LLWLW fooled a few of you young fellas, and fair enough, one decent win looks like a corner turned until it isn't. My rule these days: small stakes, keep the line modest, and never count the leg landed till the fulltime siren. Seen worse, mind you - seen them good too, that's what keeps a punter coming back. Next time they're home, I'll be watching the closing quarter with my heart in my mouth and my wallet shut. 😉Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.