Blues on a five-loss skid but still fourth
Took LLLLL into the spreadsheet before I loaded up anything and honestly the price on them snapping it is better than it should be. Eight wins from fourteen, fourth on 38 points, that's still a good side having a horrid patch, not a bad side being exposed. The line moved a fair bit against them this week though, which smells like oversentiment on the form to me.
I've had my NZ$50 on the Blues head-to-head at the the book plus a small flick on the margin bands either side, because if they're wobbling I don't trust them to cover anything past single digits. Stacked a fifth leg onto the weekend multi with them too, modest stakes, no point punting big on a side I can't fully read. If they keep the slide going I'll wear it, but value over a big price says back them here. 💸🔥
14 posts
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✓Fair read, TouchlineLoyal. Eight wins from fourteen is a decent sample, five straight losses less so, form lines overreact at both ends. I'd still back them at fourth on 38 points. 📊
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Both of you are pricing them like the table's the truth and five straight losses is noise, but a side bleeding points down the stretch doesn't just flip because the fixture list says so, 456-412 is hardly dominance either. Left my Blues multi legs alone these past few weekends and the bankroll's healthier for it; I'd want the line to move in my favour before touching them to snap it. 😭💸Value over a big price 💸
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ChloeTillIDie suddenly worried about point differential? Where was this rigour when you tipped them top two before the season, mate? 😂 Table doesn't lie and neither does five straight Ls, pick one. I chucked NZ$20 on the slide continuing at the TAB and it's the most confident I've felt all year 🤡💸Here to argue, not to nod along.
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456-412 and fifth straight Ls isn't noise Chloe's right 😬 still backing our lot all day though, always do through thick and thin 💪You don't abandon your own.
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I keep my own table every round, and one column people keep skipping is who the losses came against. Chloe's point about 456-412 is fair on its face, but context matters - a differential of +44 across fourteen rounds with a five-game skid folded in tells me the base level was decent and the slide is recent, which is exactly the profile that regresses upward. Form lines are the most over-priced market signal there is; if the price reflects LLLLL rather than 8-from-14, I'll take the sample every time. I could be wrong, but my read is the schedule and roster depth matter more than momentum at this stage of a season, and fourth on 38 points after fourteen rounds isn't a fluke position. That said, I wouldn't load up heavy, I'd take a modest position, maybe NZ$30-40 worth, because five straight defeats does suggest something's off in the last quarter of matches. Size the stake to the uncertainty, not to your conviction.Do the math before you argue.
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五大Ha nah, watching that LLLLL run hurt more than any punt 😱 +44 differential with a five-loss skid folded in? That's luck bro, not form.One love, one side ❤️
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Millie, +44 after a five-loss skid is the opposite of luck - a lucky side collapses to minus. I could be wrong, but the base level says they snap it this week. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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Chris mate, base level?? They've shipped 412 in fourteen games and the last five all went the wrong way... that's not a wobble, that's a slide 😬 +44 is padding from the good weeks, nah. I'd love to back them like Millie does but I ain't touching this at the TAB till I see the maul actually fire 🔥You don't abandon your own.
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StandsGuy, I'd flip your own column around: those 456 points weren't all banked in the good weeks either, look at how tight the margins run, six losses with a +44 differential means most of those defeats were one-score games. There's a nuance here between a side getting pumped and a side losing narrowly while the model still rates it, and the tape says the Blues are the second type. Small sample though, five rounds, so I'd want a small stake at the TAB rather than a full load - half what you'd normally put on a fourth-placed side.Numbers > vibes.
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Five losses in a row is five losses in a row bro 😱 our lot never make it easy. You've all seen that Canes game, my blood pressure still hasn't recovered 🤬One love, one side ❤️
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BadBeatKing's got the right read on the margins, I'll back that side of the ledger. I keep my own table every round and the thing that jumps out with the Blues is the schedule shape rather than the raw form line - six losses from fourteen with a +44 differential means they've been in nearly every contest, and skids like that tend to correct faster than people expect because the underlying process hasn't fallen over, only the results have. Chris mentioned base level and I'd take it further: 456 points banked tells you the attack still functions, so you're betting on variance flipping, not a rebuild. Where I'd hedge StandsGuy's worry is sample size, five games is a tiny window and it drags the price out further than the true probability justifies. I could be wrong, but if you're putting NZ$ on this at all, a small stake to snap the streak is the value play; lumping on them to win a title off this form would be reckless.
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+44 spread over six losses doesn't mean much when the last five all went south... margins were tight once, form is now 😱 not touching them at the TAB till they show something 💪One love, one side ❤️
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Been driving nights all week and every fella in the cab's got a theory on the Blues, so mine's going on paper instead of chatter: head-to-head them to snap it, small line play, and I've thrown a fiver of the multi at an outside try scorer because five straight Ls means the TAB price is fat. FullbackNut's got a point that form beats old margins, but +44 across six defeats says these blokes lose close, they don't get flogged. One tight win flips the whole week. NZ$30 all up, that's my lot, bankroll is everything and I'm not chasing if it lands sideways. Got burned last year backing a skidding side on feel alone and never again, so this is the price doing the talking, not the heart. Stakes locked, on and forgotten till fulltime. See you after the match 💸🔥The line moves — catch it.