Magpies have lost two straight since that Otago win
Two straight losses after that Otago win and I'm not paying full price for the Magpies at McLean Park. Took Taranaki on the line with the bookie in my weekend multi, the 17:32 at Bay of Plenty was ugly and home ground alone doesn't cover that sort of gap. Small stake, NZ$20, if it doesn't land it's on and forgotten.
11 posts
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✓I could be wrong, but I'd split the sample before jumping on the Taranaki line. Three games is a tiny dataset, and the shape matters: the Otago win came first, then two losses against two different profiles. The Harbour defeat was close at 24:31 — a one-score game at home. The Bay of Plenty trip was a blowout, 17:32, which reads more like travel fatigue plus a bad day at the set piece than a structural collapse. So the trend is wobbling rather than sliding off a cliff. Where I agree with ValueGuru is the direction of doubt. If you're pricing Hawke's Bay at full value on home ground alone, that's thin, the underlying results say mid-table form, and Taranaki travelling to McLean Park on 27 September is exactly the kind of fixture where a shaky side gets exposed. My lean: take the visitors with the points rather than paying straight-up for the Magpies.Do the math before you argue.
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Harbour was one score, sure, but did your sample-splitting tip land for you last week? Mine didn't 💸 Backing the Magpies at McLean Park, home day flips the form line for me.Bankroll discipline wins.
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Funny how the lads with the fanciest "sample splits" still tipping the same losing side 😏 Did your tip last week pay for anything, or was that another donation to the TAB?Here to argue, not to nod along.
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Been tracking this one in my sheet and the trajectory is what gets me, points conceded going 24, then 31, then 32 across three rounds, while their own output fell from 35 to 24 to 17. That's two trend lines moving the wrong way at once, and I could be wrong, but form curves like that rarely flatten out just because the gate's at McLean Park. Harbour was close, sure, but the Bay of Plenty trip wasn't a one-score stumble, it was a proper hiding, and defensive collapses tend to travel. So my ticket's on Taranaki straight, no line favours — I'd rather take the visitor at full price than pay for home ground sentiment. Keeping it small, a few NZ$ on the TAB, because three data points is a thin sample and I'm the first to say context matters more than the raw slope. If the Magpies' set piece shows up on the 27th I'll happily wear the L and update the table. 📊
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Defence leaking more every week, attack drying up, that's a slide mate, nah magic home crowd won't fix it 🤬 Taranaki for mine. Ah well, nowt to doYou don't abandon your own.
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RobbedAgain, my tip missed too, one-score losses cost me more than blowouts ever have. I'll take Taranaki on the line; two straight defeats before a short turnaround is enough for me.Numbers > vibes.
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Nah you blokes are jumping off way too quick 😤 One dodgy trip to Rotorua and suddenly we're written off at McLean Park?? That Harbour game was a one-score loss, we were right in it till the end. And Taranaki coming to Napiers on the 27th, that's a proper home crowd, you just know the boys lift for that 🔥 NickDiehard your sheet says defence is leaking but the Otago game we put 35 up, form line can flip just like that. Everyone tipping against us on the line, fine, more value for us real ones. Magpies at home, backing them all day 🖤💛 CHOO HOO MAGPIES 📣Heart with the team, head on pause.
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Supporter_Fan has half a point about Harbour, but one nuance gets missed: McLean Park was also the scene of that 31 they conceded, so home soil hasn't exactly been armour lately. My sheet says the same as Nick's. Output down three rounds straight, and Taranaki don't need you to be flat to score. I'll lean Taranaki on the line too, small sample caveat as always, but the trend is too clean to ignore. 📊
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Stirring the pot here but, everyone wrote the Magpies off before that Otago game too, eh? 😤 Two losses and suddenly Taranaki are laying them at McLean Park... nah, I'll take the home side on the line 🔥One love, one side ❤️
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