All Blacks -13.5 against the Wallabies on 10 October
Spent half of Saturday staring at that -13.5 wondering if I'd already missed the value. My take: the line's about right, maybe a touch generous to the Wallabies. All Blacks are 3 from 3 in the Nations Championship with 121 points put on, that attack hasn't slowed all window. Wallabies at one win and two losses, conceding 85, and Bledisloe at home for us? History says double digits more often than not.
I'll be honest though, I got burned last year taking a big line in this fixture and watching it land on 12. Margin bands around 10-15 are the classic heartbreak zone. If you're keen, the safer play is All Blacks to win but skip the line, or hunt value in the odd try scorer instead — that's where my weekend multi usually lives anyway. Waiting to see if the line moves before I loaded anything up. 💸
15 posts
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✓I'd hedge that a touch - the Wallabies still put up 114 across three matches, so 121-70 vs 114-85 is a narrower gap than the records suggest. Small sample though 📊
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"Narrower gap than the records suggest", that's doing a lot of work, mate. The Wallabies scored 114 mostly against tired defensive sets; the All Blacks conceded 70 while running a full attacking game. Aggregate points across three games tell you almost nothing about how a -13.5 line behaves in one match. Show me the numbers where it actually matters. Head-to-head margins at home in Tests, and then we'll talk. Until then the records suggest plenty.
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Josh has a point about the aggregate stuff being pretty meaningless, but he's also overcomplicating it 😂 3 from 3 with 121 points is just a different level to a side that's dropped two and needed tired defence to rack up theirs. I took the All Blacks -13.5 at the TAB without much sweating, and I'd happily put a few more NZ$ on it if it drifts. Bledisloe at home off a full window? They'll win by 15+ comfortably.Any stat can be bent.
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Josh and FixIsInPTSD are both circling the same point and neither quite landed it for me. The 121-70 vs 114-85 comparison only means something if you know who each side scored against, and we simply don't have that granularity here. Three matches is a sample where one blowout skews everything. I could be wrong, but my read on -13.5 is that the table gap (15 points to 8, W3 vs W1) is the more honest signal than aggregate points, because wins translate across conditions and point aggregates don't. Where I'd push back on BadBeatAndy slightly: taking the All Blacks -13 at the TAB before checking how the Wallabies have travelled in tight second halves is leaving information on the table. Wallabies's two losses both came with them competitive in stretches, which is exactly the profile of a side that covers a double-digit line even when it loses. If you want the All Blacks, I'd rather wait and see if the line drifts to -12.5 anywhere closer to the 10th.Do the math before you argue.
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BadBeatAndy's right, that 3 from 3 pace is a different animal 😏 I chucked NZ$50 on the line at TAB last week, only worry is one blowout inflating everything.Here to argue, not to nod along.
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FrontRowFan nailed half of it, in my view. I keep a running sheet every round, and one rained-off blowout can swing the aggregate by thirty points on its own, the real nuance here is that 121-70 against 114-85 barely moves the needle once you normalise per match. The table gap (15 points v 8) tells you about consistency, and the line is pricing consistency plus home advantage. Small sample though; I'd want to see how each side's defence held in the second half before touching -13.5.Numbers > vibes.
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BadBeatKing talking about normalising per match like he's doing his PhD 🤡 mate you're one rain-affected blowout away from that spreadsheet being worthless, which is exactly his point. I'm with Andy though, took -13 myself, NZ$30 each way on the margin. Barely moves the needle? tell that to my ROI 😏Any stat can be bent.
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BadBeatKing's per-match point is fair enough, but here's what my own sheet shows: even averaged out, both sides sit around 40 points scored per match, so the difference is almost entirely at the other end - the Wallabies have conceded 85 in three, and defence is where double-digit lines get covered. I could be wrong, but a side leaking nearly 28 a game rarely hangs inside -13.5 for four full quarters against this mob. One more thing worth weighing before anyone tops up at the TAB: the Wallabies' two losses came in this window, and their one win is the anomaly, whereas the All Blacks' 15 points from nine available is a clean sweep with no weather-affected asterisk I can see. Context matters, sure, and three games is a thin sample for a points-aggregate argument. But if you're taking a side on this line, the concession rate is the bit I'd trust over the scoring flair. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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ChrisDiehard with the only sensible post in this whole circus 😂 the Wallabies leaking 85 in three is where the -13.5 gets paid, everything else is spreadsheet cosplay. I'll add one caveat though, Trans-Tasman fixtures tend to run tight regardless of form, so I'd want a peek at the weather before I throw NZ$50 at the line. Remind me of your ROI on margin bets, Supporter_88? 😏
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ChrisDiehard387's read matches what my own sheet shows, and I could be wrong, but the home factor is the bit nobody's priced properly yet - a Bledisloe test on home turf historically tightens the margins more than any table suggests, and Eden Park in particular hasn't been kind to visiting sides for a very long time. Wallabies conceding 85 worries me for the -13.5, though, so I'm leaning with the line being fair rather than generous. Depends how you count it, but I'd want better than 114-85 defence before backing either side of it heavily.
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NickDiehard finally says something useful, Eden Park is the whole line 😂 still took -13.5, NZ$40 down. But 85 conceded in three? sure thing, mate, they'll cover it.
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Coached the juniors Saturday morning and half the dads were on about this line already 😂 gotta say, defence wins Bledisloe tests, and our lot choking the Wallabies out at Eden Park is the whole bet for me. 85 conceded in three, nah, they're not suddenly fixing that at the fortress. Get in 💪🔥One love, one side ❤️
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Millie's coached kids all morning and still nails the read better than half this thread 😂 defence at the fortress, line covers easy. Already chucked NZ$50 on it with the TAB, sweet as.It's a lottery, not sport.
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Took -13.5 myself at NZ$30, small because the 121-70 scoring gap feels flashier than it is. Wallabies put up 114 too, so they'll score some. Eden Park keeps me honest though; last couple Bledisloe tests there I've been burned leaning on form. If they win by 8-10 I'm cursing all week 😭Value over a big price 💸