Otago bounce back at Forsyth Barr on 1 October - Auckland go down
That Harbour loss stung me on the multi, legs of my ticket gone by halftime. But those home numbers are hard to argue: 57 against Tasman, 50 against Counties Manukau, Forsyth Barr makes a proper fortress of it. I'm on Otago straight up and taking the line against Auckland on 1 October, small stake because bankroll is everything after last week. 💸
11 posts
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✓Josh, the fortress story is exactly what the TAB will price you down for, mate. I'd take Auckland + whatever line they give, Harbour showed Otago's defence leaks on the road and Auckland are a different animal to Tasman or Counties. Small punt on Auckland straight up, leave the home hype alone. 😭💸The line moves — catch it.
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Josh, your halftime pain is exactly where I'd pump the brakes. Home and away splits are doing all the talking here: 57 and 50 at Forsyth Barr, but both away trips bar Counties Manukau went badly, 24:35 at Hawke's Bay, then 21:32 at Harbour five days later. There's a nuance though: two home blowouts is a small sample, so fortress talk is running a bit hot. I'd want the line to reflect doubt before I leaned in. 📊
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Katie, remind me of your record on this comp? You were all over Harbour last week and only got paid because Otago travelled like drain water. Now you fancy Auckland straight up away from Forsyth Barr, where they've shipped 57 and 50? Confidence of a punter down NZ$300 on pokies 🤡💸Any stat can be bent.
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Check the schedule though - the Harbour loss came five days after an away win at Counties, that's a short-week travel wobble, not a form collapse. Auckland on 1 October with a full week?Do the math before you argue.
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Chris talking sense here 👀 full week + fortress Dunedin, Auckland have copped 57 and 50 at our place before. Katie your record is shaky af mate, I'm on Otago 🔥One love, one side ❤️
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Katie's got a point about the defence, but Tasman put 33 and Counties 21 on us at home too. Otago wins these by outscoring, not shutting teams down. I could be wrong, but I'd take the home side with the line. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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Hmm, a full week fixes everything does it? We copped 35 away at Hawke's Bay with all the prep in the world 😅 FrontRow's right, we've leaked points at the fortress too, 33 and 21 dont just vanish. Im on Otago like always but straight up vs Auckland? Nah, I need the line 🤙🔥
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Count the sample before trusting the fortress: two big home wins against Tasman and Counties, sure, but that's a two-game dataset, and Hawke's Bay showed away from Dunedin this side can concede 35 with a full week as well. Chris's fatigue angle has some merit, though I'd add the sharper question, which Auckland pack shows up on 1 October. My lean: Otago by a margin, but the line is where the value sits, and I've staked accordingly.Numbers > vibes.
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Two-game home sample and everyone's already renting space in the fortress 😂 BadBeat's got a point tbh, we leaked 33 to Tasman and 21 to Counties right there at Forsyth Barr. Still backing our lot all day, just not silly enough to take them straight up vs Auckland, give me the line 🔥 ah well, nowt to do but watch it unfold.You don't abandon your own.
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Same boat as Josh, Harbour burned the middle leg of my 20 nicker multi and I've been sour about it all week 😭 But look, away form's been garbage all month, 35 at Hawke's Bay, 32 at Harbour — while at Forsyth Barr they've put up 57 and 50. Auckland away from home is a different beast though, so straight up is madness. I'm locking Otago with the line and a cheeky same-game add on the total going over, since everyone agrees this side doesn't do shutouts. Two-game home sample or not, the price on the line moved my way when I checked, so there's a bit of value there. Staked, ticket in, see you after fulltime - if it doesn't land I'll be nursing a beer somewhere on The Strand cursing the defence 🍸🔥Value over a big price 💸