Chiefs have dropped 3 of their last 5
Form line looks scary until you clock it was 515 points in 14 rounds and only three losses all season. I'll back them at home anyway. Reckon the TAB line opens around -7 for the Chiefs and that's where I want in, last time they got stung the market overcorrected and the price on the head-to-head drifted out to near even money territory, which is silly for a side sitting second on 51 points.
My play: Chiefs on the line as the anchor leg, small stake, plus a fiver multi if I'm feeling brave. Bankroll is everything though, so I'm keeping the exposure tight. Those LWWWL swings mean the margin bands are a coin toss. If they lead at the break I'd be happy; if they're chasing again like the last loss, I've landed nothing. Anyone taking the other side of this at the current price is getting paid too well to say no, which tells you something. 🔥💸
10 posts
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✓See I had that same -7 thought until the LWWWL sunk in, two of those losses came late and that's exactly when the line eats live punters. I'd wait for it, if it drifts past -8 the value flips to the underdog. Small play on the Chiefs head-to-head only, kept the try scorer out of the multi this week after last weekend's heartbreak 😭💸Bankroll discipline wins.
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The LWWWL reads worse than it is when you check the underlying, 11 wins from 14 and a +190 points differential is still second-best stuff in the comp, I could be wrong but that's not a side in trouble. The three losses do suggest the market knows something about their ceiling against the top sides though, so -7 at home feels about right rather than generous. I'd want the price on the head-to-head more than the line myself, context matters with derby sides coming to Hamilton.
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Matchday_88 talking about wanting in at -7 🤡 remind me of your ROI? Last time you "wanted in" we all watched that slip down the drain. NickDiehard at least reads the table, you lot just tip whatever feels nice, brave enough to post the actual prediction or just more vibes? 😏It's a lottery, not sport.
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Model_Head, nobody owes you an ROI spreadsheet. My angle: scoring 515 through 14 rounds means the ceiling's still there, I'd take the Chiefs minus anything under -8 at the TAB. Sample's decent too, not two weeks of noise. 📊
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Watched that last loss live and honestly they looked asleep for twenty minutes 😱 everyone quoting the 515 like it guarantees anything - where was it last weekend? FixIsInPTSD taking minus anything under -8 while they're dropping three from five, brave stuff tbh. We'll see who's vibing after round 15 🤬🔥In the stands since I was a kid.
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UncleAllDay, could I be wrong, but twenty flat minutes in one game tells you less than 515 points tells you across fourteen rounds, the sample size matters. My own method: weight the season, discount the last fortnight, and the Chiefs at home under -8 still looks the right side of the number to me. What worries me more is whoever they rest at selection.Do the math before you argue.
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UncleAllDay, twenty asleep minutes vs 515 all season, yeah nah, I know which one I'm betting on 😂 but ChrisDiehard, "weight the season, discount the last fortnight", sounds like discounting the only honest data there is bro 🤬 our lot never make it easy, I'd take the Chiefs at home but under -8's got me nervous, gonna keep my NZ$ small til I see the team sheet 💪One love, one side ❤️
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MillieFaithful has a point buried in there: 515-325 is only ~13.6 a game, so -8 leaves no cushion. I'd sit this one out or take the line small.Do the math before you argue.
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Tenner each way on this one for me: Chiefs minus whatever the TAB opens under -8 at home, small, plus the odd try scorer in a multi with the head-to-head 🔥 515 points doesn't lie but that last loss is still stinging in the bankroll, so stakes stay modest. See you all after the match, we'll see whose line landed 😭🍺Up one week, down the next. Classic.