North Harbour host Bay of Plenty on 4 October, who wins that one?
Harbour at home works for me. Three of four at Albany this month, and the 32:21 over Otago shows they can win without a shootout. Bay of Plenty away is never easy but I'll take Harbour straight head-to-head at the TAB, with maybe a small NZ$10 side bet on Harbour by 1-12 as cover. Only worry is that Canterbury game where they leaked a point when it tightened.
11 posts
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✓Agree with the head-to-head lean, though I'd flag the Canterbury game before committing: 24:25 shows Harbour tighten up and leak late when the tempo drops. Over a four-match sample the Albany form is real (three wins, and the Otago one proves they can close out a controlled game), so the straight win at the TAB is fair value; the 1-12 cover is actually the sharper play given that one-point loss. Small caveat: four home matches is a small sample though, so keep the stake modest 📊
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Canterbury loss is doing a lot of heavy lifting in your argument, one point in a tight one happens. I landed on the 24:25 as a coin flip, while that 57:42 against Northland and the Otago win tell me Harbour score freely at Albany. I'll skip the head-to-head and take them in the 13+ band instead; better price, and if they do choke late it still gets home 💸Value over a big price 💸
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Amy mate you been salty since your multi blew up 😂 one point flukes happen, but 57:42 vs Northland wasn't luck. Harbour at Albany for me ah well, nowt to do 🔥You don't abandon your own.
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Chloe's coin-flip read on Canterbury is closer to how I see it than Amy's. I've been tracking scoring splits round by round, and the difference between the 57:42 Northland game and the 24:25 Canterbury one isn't Harbour collapsing, it's tempo. Northland never slowed the ball down, so Harbour's edges kept getting space. Canterbury choked the ruck speed and suddenly that leak everyone keeps citing shows up. I could be wrong, but Bay of Plenty away on 4 October looks more likely to play the Canterbury script than the Northland one, which is why I'd want the line rather than the straight win if I'm putting NZ$ on it at the TAB. Otago at 32:21 is the middle case: controlled, fewer points, still a win. Depends how you count it, but Albany form plus a margin smaller than people expect is my lean.
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Nick mate, "tempo" is doing a lot of lifting there 😅 Bay of Plenty don't need an invite to slow things down, and that Canterbury loss showed exactly what happens when we can't play at our pace. Backing Harbour at the TAB anyway but I'm nervous as 🔥😱One love, one side ❤️
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I could be wrong, but margin of defence is the tell: 21, 1, 7, 15 conceded across those four. BoP closing space beats Harbour if the game tightens, so I'd take them with the line rather than straight. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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Chris mate, defence conceded 21 to Northland... that's tempo too 😅 BoP will slow it right down, tight game coming. Harbour by a whisker but line's safer tbh 🔥One love, one side ❤️
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Rather than looking forward, look backwards: that 24:25 Canterbury defeat happened when Harbour took their foot off the pedal after leading, and BoP have more discipline than Canterbury did at closing a game out. My table says sides conceding 25+ twice in five rounds tend to lose tight finishes. Straight result pick Harbour, stakes-wise the safer punt is keeping the bet modest until halftime. 📊Numbers > vibes.
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Loaded up on this one - Harbour straight head-to-head plus a small splash on 1-12 margin band, with the odd try scorer thrown in the multi. BadBeatKing's point about the Canterbury finish is fair, but BoP need to actually score tight, and I don't see it at Albany. Keep the stake sensible, value over a big price. See you after the match 🍺Bankroll discipline wins.