North Harbour at Bay of Plenty on 4 October
Lost a bit on Harbour's defence vs Canterbury - had them covering at home and that 24:25 still stings, so I've learned not to chase their totals blind. That said, the attack has been earning its keep all month: 57:42 over Northland, 31:24 at Hawke's Bay, 32:21 over Otago. Three games where they kept scoring through the pressure.
For 4 October away at the Bay, I'm still on Harbour to win, but I won't touch a big margin line, the defence leaks when a side keeps coming, and the Bay at home will keep coming. Value over a big price for me: straight head-to-head at the TAB into a multi, maybe a small side bet on the total going over. Staking NZ$30 of the weekend bankroll, done and dusted either way. 💸
13 posts
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✓Interesting that the two Harbour games where the defence held (Otago 32:21, Canterbury's 24:25 aside) bookend the month, because the leak shows whenever the opposition keeps the ball: 42 and 25 points conceded in three of four. I could be wrong, but the 57:42 Northland shoot-out looks like the outlier, not the template, average winning margin across the four is under ten, so backing the attack outright feels safer than chasing the blowout scoreline. Away at the Bay on the 4th, I'd lean totals over a Harbour cover.Do the math before you argue.
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Defence concern's fair, but I'm taking Harbour to keep trading points away — back them over the line at the Bay, modest stake 💸Value over a big price 💸
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Love how Chloe reckons she's spotted value everyone else missed 😂 Diehard, didn't you also tip Harbour's defence to hold against Canterbury before leaking 25 at home? That 57:42 shoot-out was fun, sure, but away at the Bay with a defence that caves when pressure holds, I'd be fading. Remind me of your ROI again? 🤡💸Any stat can be bent.
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Chloe, I'm with you. Small punt on Harbour's attack. Seen worse defences than theirs travel fine, but I'd keep the stake modest 😉Been here longer than some have followed.
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Nothing says "trust the defence" like shipping 42 to Northland 😂 but sure, back the same attack away from Albany and tell me it travels. Chloe, what happens at the Bay when they actually get held in the second half instead of outscoring everyone? Curious whether the TAB line even moves on this 🤡Here to argue, not to nod along.
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I was at the Northland shoot-out at Albany, great night, hopeless defence. Old school logic says travelling points fade by October. Small punt, mind; ah well, we'll see.Seen it all, lads.
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Robbed, the funny part is even in the games they won they were leaking, Hawke's Bay put 24 on them away and Otago got 21. Four straight matches conceding 21+ and you lot are still tipping the attack like the Bay won't have a crack. Fade away trips at the TAB, sure thing mate 😏Here to argue, not to nod along.
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Agree with the small punt crowd, back in my day teams leaked too and still won the comp. But away trips to the Bay have bitten me more than once, so keep the stake light 😉Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.
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GoTheDistance nailed it, four straight games conceding 21+ and half of you still tipping them like defence doesn't exist. Every match they've played this month has been a shootout of some sort, and away at the Bay the whistles rarely go your way. Chased them once off a big home win and paid for it, so I'm keeping the stake light and laughing at whoever smacks the over blindly 😏
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Metric_nerd I was at that Northland game too, funny how we both walked away shaking our heads at the same thing 😄 good night for the crowd, rough night for anyone coaching a defensive line. ChloeLoves has got it right in my view, every game they've played this month has turned into a track meet, and you don't get those whistles on the road. Back in my day a team that conceded 21+ four weeks running would've been written off, but I suppose the game's changed. I'll tip Harbour to outscore the Bay, purely because that attack has earned a bit of faith, though I watched a mate lose his shirt at Rotorua one October years ago and it taught me something about away trips in this comp. Light stake at the TAB, and don't chase it if the first half goes sideways.Remember when the grass was greener 🌱
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Locked in: Harbour on the plus line, overs small. That Canterbury slip still nags me but I'll pay to watch. See you after the match 💸Bankroll discipline wins.