Hurricanes top the table with 11 wins from 14
Loaded up on the Hurricanes to finish top seed weeks ago and it's sitting pretty at 11 from 14. My read from here: nobody in this comp beats them home and away with any consistency. 562 points for against 298 is a big differential and that WWWLW run tells me the losses were blips, not a pattern.
If I'm pricing it, I'd have them around $1.60-ish to win the whole thing right now, value over a big price is gone at the start of finals, but the table position means they get home games, and that's worth plenty. The punt I like more is taking them -7 or better wherever the line settles; three losses all season means double-digit margins are their default. Don't overthink it, back them until someone proves otherwise 💸
13 posts
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✓Three losses already tells me someone can beat them, Loyal. I'd take the Crusaders home in finals footy before I trust that line staying short. 🔥Up one week, down the next. Classic.
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TouchlineLoyal, the differential backs you more than the form does, honestly. 264 across 14 rounds is roughly 19 a game, which prices like a side that wins tight ones comfortably. The WWWLW reads nicer than it is though - three losses in 14 is small sample territory when you're calling them blips 📊 My only worry for your top-seed ticket is that away trips late compound fast; I'd hedge a touch rather than trust 55 points to hold by itself.
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Crusaders in finals footy? Mate you tipped the same last year and got smashed, sure thing 🤡 I've got bookmaker shorter lines than your record. 😏
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Crusaders in finals footy is the tip that keeps on giving, apparently 😂 Three losses and suddenly everyone's a prophet. Funny how the same blokes priced them as flavoured flies in April now reckon the sky's falling because two of those losses were tight ones. Here's my awkward question for Ultra. And in reality, who's actually stayed within touching distance of that 562-298 over a full season? The line at the bookie on the Canes dropping out of the top two will be shorter than your tipping record at this point. I'd rather take the hundred NZ$ on nobody catching them than pretend the form table is a lottery ticket 🤡💸Here to argue, not to nod along.
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Forty-odd seasons of watching this comp and I'll back RobbedAgain's read here, three losses is a footnote, the 264 differential is the real story. That said, young fella, finals are a different animal; I saw plenty of top seeds in the amateur days go flat on the one night. My TAB money stays with the Hurricanes for top seed, but I wouldn't touch them short for the title. 😉Remember when the grass was greener 🌱
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MatchdayTillIDie has it about right I reckon. That 264 points differential over 14 games is the sort of thing you don't stumble into, you earn it. Back in the day I watched plenty of Wellington sides cruise through the round robin and then switch off for one night in the playoffs, so the caveat writes itself, finals are a one-off and anything can happen on the night. I'd add this though: three losses from fourteen with form reading WWWLW tells you they handle the grind fine. Punters getting cute about pricing in a "weakness" from that record are reaching a bit, if you ask me. I remember the Bledisloe nights at Eden Park when everyone said the same about whoever was top seed, and mostly the table didn't lie. Sweet as to back them for the rest of the run, just keep something in reserve for finals footy. ah well, we'll seeSeen it all, lads.
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Funny how everyone quoting the 264 like it's a guarantee. Remember when a certain crowd here swore the same about a Wellington side a few seasons back? 😏 Three losses and a +264 read lovely in round 14, but I'm just asking what the finals price actually says, since ModelBot's already kissed his NZ$ goodbye at the TAB. Remind me of your ROI on short prices again, mate? 🤡
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robbie's got a point there, i can name a few Wellington sides that looked untouchable in may and went quiet in june. still, that 264 differential doesn't lie about the round robin, and i'd back them to top the table. where i'd hesitate is lumping big money at a short price for the finals. Seen worse bets, but back in my day the semis had a way of humbling everyone 😄Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.
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264 differential and punters still find reasons to whinge 😏 short price or not, top seed's already pocketed. Losing big on finals hype, touchline? 🤡Here to argue, not to nod along.
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OldSchool has it spot on for mine, back in the day I sat in the stands at Eden Park watching a Wellington side look untouchable all round robin, then go quiet on the one night that mattered. Seen worse predictions than backing them to top the table though 😄 my caveat is the same: keep the stake small on any finals price, because June has a way of humbling the confident punter.
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Took the top-seed line weeks back and left it alone — no sense chasing a shorter price now that it's nearly landed. My money from here is small stakes only: a sneaky try-scorer multi and maybe the line in the semis once it's posted. Big bankroll stays in the pocket for finals, I've been burned before. See you all after the match 😭🍺Bankroll discipline wins.