Auckland to bounce back at Western Springs against Manawatu's hoodoo?
Getting home off a 34:40 loss to Manawatu at Western Springs stings, but the recent form reads okay, Tasman scraped 24:22, Counties beaten 43:33, only real clunker was Taranaki. I'm backing Auckland to bounce back down in Dunedin on 1 October, would take the TAB line if it lands under a converted try and slot them head-to-head in my multi 💸
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✓Both of you are sleeping on the away form a bit, Otago at Carisbrook is exactly where that leaky defence gets punished. Loaded up on Taranaki beating them by 16 and that landed no worries, and losing by 6 at home to Manawatu doesn't scream bounce-back to me. I'd take Otago on the line rather than Auckland to win; my multi last weekend got done in the last leg, so I'm not feeling generous. 💸Bankroll discipline wins.
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The Taranaki result is the one I'd weight more than Lucy is, 12 points away is a proper stumble, and it sits awkwardly next to scraping Tasman by two. Home form holds up though, 43:33 over Counties and 40 conceded to Manawatu is more a defence leak than a slump. I could be wrong, but I'd back Auckland at Otago on 1 October only if the line is inside a converted try.Do the math before you argue.
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haha amy calling out stathead is sweet as 😂 the bloke only shows up when his multi lands... but he's got a point about carisbrook tbh, that away defence worries me. still backing the boys tho, they never make it easy 💪Heart with the team, head on pause.
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FrontRowFan's defence-leak framing is close, though the sample is only five matches so I'd hedge everything. What I'd actually watch for Otago away on 1 October is the pattern in the margins: the two wins came by 2 and 10, the two losses by 6 and 16, which reads like a side that can't put anyone away on the road. If the line at the TAB is inside a converted try, I'd be looking at Otago rather than Auckland, honestly. 📊
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seriously, fixing defence over a week after coughing up 40 at your own ground? nah 😅 im old enough to remember plenty of "we've sorted it" weeks that ended the same way. that 34:40 effort still hurts tbh, ah well, nowt to do. i'd stay off the Auckland line at Carisbrook till I see who actually turns up on 1 October 🔥You don't abandon your own.
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I could be wrong, but a side that's conceded 28, 40 and wins by two-point scraps rarely fixes the leak in six days. Otago away by 1-12 for me, small stake only.Do the math before you argue.
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Coughing up 40 at home and you blokes still tipping Auckland? 😱 Otago away is where seasons die... I'd be all over the underdog line, small stake 🔥One love, one side ❤️
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I keep a running margin table and the 40 shipped to Manawatu is only half the story. Look at what Auckland have scored in that same stretch: 43, 24, 34. Three matches where they've put 24-plus on the board every time, including a loss. That attack travels, even after a Taranaki trip where they were held to 12. My worry is the other column - 28, 22, 40 conceded, and away at Otago on 1 October you can't win a shootout on the road with a defence leaking like that. There's a nuance here though: a six-day turnaround after a bad defensive showing often gets papered over rather than fixed, which is exactly Chris's point. So my line of thinking is Auckland to win but by a single score, taking the spread rather than the money line if the price looks tight. Small stake, maybe NZ$20-30 worth for me, because small sample though — five matches tells you the shape of a team, nothing about how they travel to Dunedin.Numbers > vibes.
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BadBeatKing's got a point, 24-plus in three straight keeps Auckland in most multis even when the defence leaks. But Otago away a week after shipping 40 at your own ground? I've been burned on "bounce back" sides too many times. Locked in a small play: Otago by 1-12, plus a low try scorer punt in the same multi, gave up 68 in two home matches, the away side usually doesn't fix that overnight. Kept the stake to NZ$20, bankroll discipline after the Manawatu multi ruined my weekend. If Auckland's attack travels like it did against Tasman and Counties, this could land tight. See you all after the 1st 🍺💸Bankroll discipline wins.
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Scoring 24-plus every week while conceding like a pub side. What exactly does that tell you about a team's ceiling? Nobody's answered that yet in this thread. FullbackNut, source on the "Otago away is where seasons die" line? That's a saying, a stat would be better. My read: Auckland have shown they can score regardless of the leak, so the bounce back talk has more basis than usual. But I've watched enough sides talk about character after a hiding and then ship another one the following week. Gut feeling either way is just laziness dressed up. I'll believe the fix when I see it on the park.Sample first, conclusions after.