Everyone's backing Auckland to bounce back at Otago, I'm not so sure
Chucked a tenner on Auckland earlier this week and already regretting it, honestly. That 34:40 at home to Manawatu on the 25th was ugly. Leaking 40 points at Western Springs after only scraping past Tasman 24:22 the week before. Two dodgy defensive weeks in a row heading into Dunedin, where Otago will front up properly in front of their own mob.
My call: Auckland win, but nowhere near comfortable. I'd take them on the line if it's single digits, and I'd stay well clear of any "Auckland by 13+" type margin band, that's where bankrolls die. The TAB price on the straight head-to-head will probably be too short to bother with, so if you want value, look at the line or a modest win margin instead. I've got them winning by less than a try. Anyone backing a bounce-back rout is paying for last season's Auckland, this mob. 🔥
12 posts
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✓Katie, I'd hedge that tenner if you can. I keep my own running table and Auckland's last three weeks read like a defence problem: 43:33 against Counties Manukau on the 12th, then 24:22 scraping past Tasman, then 40 conceded at Western Springs on the 25th. That's 105 points let in across three matches, and the shape of it matters, the Counties game they just outscored the leak, the Tasman win was a lucky escape, and Manawatu simply rolled them at home. Two decent wins masking a defence that's been degrading every week. The trip to Dunedin on 1 October is the wrong place to fix it. I could be wrong, but Otago at home has always been a grinder's fixture, and a side conceding 35 a game lately doesn't get comfortable anywhere, let alone down south. If I were laying money I'd want a line with a buffer or I'd leave Auckland alone entirely. Form over name, every time.Do the math before you argue.
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Everyone's reading that Manawatu game like a trend, but I took the other angle. Auckland's defence looks shaky on paper, sure - 40 conceded at home is munted no matter how you slice it. But down in Dunedin is where it gets interesting for me: Otago at home have never been generous favourites, and the TAB line on this one feels inflated because punters are all recoiling off one bad home loss. My read: Auckland's problem is leaks, not a full collapse, they still put 43 on Counties Manukau and grinded out Tasman away. I'd sooner take Auckland +whatever points than back the bounce-back hype straight up. Tried head-to-head on sides coming off a 40-burger before and got burnt too many times; the line's where the value lives. Small stake, on and forgotten. 💸Up one week, down the next. Classic.
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ValueGuru "took the other angle", the same angle you took last week and got torched on, mate 😂 40 conceded at home and some of you still see a bounce back. Your TAB slip's already in the bin, Katie 🤡💸Here to argue, not to nod along.
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Genuine question for the "bounce back" mob: what exactly are you bouncing back off? Nobody seems to remember Taranaki either - 12:28 away on the 3rd of September, and suddenly everyone's acting like this side was cruising until the Manawatu game. Two of their last four have been proper stinkers, and the Tasman one only looked tidy because it went their way by two points 😏 ValueGuru, remind me of your ROI again before you "take the other angle" twice in a row? Some punters at the the book seem to think Dunedin will fix a defence that's been leaking at home all month. Sure thing, mate 💸🤡
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Rob's got a fair point about Taranaki, though I'd say the Tasman scrape worried me more, back in my day an away win like that meant the side had backbone, these days it just looks like they got bailed out. Seen worse sides than this Auckland lot turn up at Carisbrook, mind, so I wouldn't write them off at Otago on the 1st; still, I'd want a bigger price than the TAB's likely offering before backing the bounce. 😄Been here longer than some have followed.
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Funny how fast people flip eh, one dodgy fortninght and Auckland go from banker to boogie man 😏 Two wins, two losses, a two-point squeak against Tasman in their last four, and half this thread reckons it's all going to click coming across to Carisbrook territory. Going down there having shipped 40 to *Manawatu* at home three days prior? That's rought revenue waiting to happen tbh. Don't stress though Katie, plenty will tell ya the form guide means nothing, travel factors a bit, whatever helps sleeping tonight 💸 Me, I want Auckland just because getting paid when they fold again would feel better than any moral "I called the wobble" claptrap. But hey, someone around here will surely time the turnaround perfectly 🤡Any stat can be bent.
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Rob's right about Taranaki being airbrushed out. Seen worse Auckland sides head south, but Carisbrook nights are cruel to a leaky defence, eh.Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.
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Katie's tenner on the TAB already smelling like a donation 😏 Two weeks running the defence's gone missing. Forty at home to Manawatu, and Tasman should've rolled them the week before. Anyone backing Auckland in Dundin off one half-decent win over Counties Manukau is betting on hope, and hope's a terrible price. It's a lottery, not sport.It's a lottery, not sport.
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Amy's got me chuckling with that donation line 😄 seen worse Auckland sides than this lot, mind you, I remember nights at Eden Park when the old guard would've copped worse and still held their nerve. But my caution is the same as OldSchool's: Carisbrook-style Dunedin nights punish a defence that leaks 40 at home, so I'd want to see tackling drills before tipping a comfortable win. Katie, I'd hold the tenner rather than double down, eh.
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Loading my bets for Dunedin now. Auckland's defence is broken, so I've gone on Otago on the line and a sneaky try scorer in the Otago backline, $20 all up, plus $15 on Otago straight. Yesterday's lesson: backed Auckland against Tasman and got lucky at 24:22. Won't get lucky twice. 💸 Katie, your tenner was a donation, mate. 😭 See you after the match. 🍺Value over a big price 💸