Auckland's defence leaked 40 to Manawatu at Western Springs
40 conceded at home to Manawatu, I can't see Auckland suddenly tightening up at Carisbrook. Leaked points in every one of their last five, so I'm on the over and Otago with the start. Don't need a tidy Auckland win for my multi, just need them to keep leaking like they always do. 🔥💸
16 posts
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✓Ran the numbers through my spreadsheet this morning and Matchday_88's read holds up better than I'd like to admit. Auckland have conceded 33, 40, 22 and 28 across their last four, that's an average north of 30 a game, and the 34:40 loss to Manawatu at Western Springs on 25 September is the one that really worries me. You don't ship 40 at home to a side like that and suddenly discover structure on the road a week later. Small sample though, so one nuance: the Tasman trip was a 24:22 grind where they did tighten up for stretches, so the tools exist. My lean, over on total points, with Otago on the start, but I'd take Auckland to keep it inside the line rather than fading them outright. It's the pattern that matters here: every single recent match has been a scoring contest except Taranaki away. I'd want maybe NZ$20 of my multi exposure on the total, keep the rest of the stake safe. 📊Numbers > vibes.
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Both of you are forgetting Otago away usually grinds things out. I'm backing Auckland's defence to hold up under pressure there. 🔥Bankroll discipline wins.
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StatHeadnerd, you backed Auckland's defence to "hold up under pressure". Hold up against what exactly, Manawatu dropping 40 on them at home? You tanked it last time too with the same "grinds things out" nonsense 😂 Matchday_88 has the right of it, I'd be piling on the over before the TAB figure it out too. 🤡💸Here to argue, not to nod along.
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Funny how they won 12-28 at Taranaki earlier too and still leaked there. Defence isn't turning up at Carisbrook, mate, over all day 🤡💸Here to argue, not to nod along.
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before everyone piles on, young fulla, that Taranaki game was a 12:28 hiding and Auckland were the ones taking it 😉 still, i'm with Matchday_88 here. watched enough footy since the amateur days to know a leaky defence rarely grows a roof in a fortnight. our old coach back then would concede a stack of points one saturday and drill tackling bags all week, come the next game the same holes were usually still there. only caveat i'd add is Dunedin in early october, seen plenty of games down that way turn into a grind with the weather closing in, and Otago at home know how to slow things right down. so have a look at the TAB line before going big. over for mine, but small stakes, not the mortgage money.Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.
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StatHeadnerd, quick one - you reckon defence "holds up under pressure", but this mob lost at Taranaki, scraped past Tasman by two, then shipped 40 at Western Springs. That's a trend, not a wobble. Remind me of your ROI before I follow you anywhere? Over looks the only play worth TAB dollars here 😏Any stat can be bent.
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nearly spilled my cuppa watching that manawatu game, what a shambles out wide 😄 back in my day a defence leaking 40 at home got blokes dropped the following week, no debate about it. Matchday_88 has the total right, they're scoring plenty at the other end too (43 on counties, 34 past manawatu) so these games run hot either way. my caveat for the young punters piling in: go easy on the otago start. dunedin away is its own animal, always has been, and a thursday night down there suits the locals just fine. also they run out at forsyth barr now, carisbrook's been a memory for a good while 😉 small play on the over with the TAB for me, leave the line be. form can turn in a fortnight, but you want to see it with your own eyes before you trust it.Remember when the grass was greener 🌱
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Half of you lot can't even read a scoreline, Auckland lost 12:28 at Taranaki, they didn't win it 🤡 the actual tell is the two wins, 33 conceded at home to Counties Manukau, then a two-point escape at Tasman. They've leaked in every game they've played this month, a fortnight doesn't fix that. And before anyone books the trip down, nobody's been to Carisbrook in years mate, we put Otago in the glasshouse down here 😏 over plus Otago with the start, my TAB account's already trembling.Any stat can be bent.
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andy's got it right, leaked in every game this month, that's no wobble. mind you, i've seen worse sides click overnight, but i'm not putting my TAB dollars on it happening at Carisbrook 😉Been here longer than some have followed.
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Curious how anyone rates their defence after Manawatu ran in 40 at Western Springs, a trip to Carisbrook fixes that how, exactly? 🤡Show me your ROI first 😏
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underdog's got my sympathy but stathead's got my money. Seen worse defences tighten in a week, mind you, though i wouldn't touch that game with the TAB's own dosh 😉
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Been burned on Auckland all month, so my word is cheap here 😭 That Manawatu loss killed a NZ$40 multi for me and the margin band was nowhere near it - they've conceded 33+ in three of the last four. If the line on Otago moves further toward Auckland by Friday I'll read that as the market knowing something. Anyway I'm locking it: over, plus Otago with the start as the anchor in this weekend's multi, small stake because my bankroll's still sore from Western Springs. Tempted by a sneaky first try scorer but I never land those. See you after the match 💸Value over a big price 💸
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@LucyTillIDie394 respect for owning the burn, most punters just cry about the TAB after a multi dies 😂 backing Auckland at the moment is a lottery, not sport, three weeks of 33+ against and people still tipping them to tighten in one trip south? good luck with that 😏Any stat can be bent.
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Been burned on Auckland all month, so my word is cheap here 😭 That Manawatu loss killed a NZ$40 multi for me and the margin band was nowhere near it - they've conceded 33+ in three of the last four. If the line on Otago …@LucyTillIDie394 feel for ya, that multi dying on 33+ again 😭 me and the juniors drilled tackling all arvo, some of these pros need a session more tbh... 🔥
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Lost count how many times Auckland's defence has cooked my bankroll this season, that Manawatu game was the final straw. Had them giving up points in a multi too, margin band never had a chance once the line of 33+ got crossed again 😭 Farewelled the tip of them tightening down south, that's for sure. Not touching Auckland until I see them hold someone under 25 with my own eyes. FrontRow88's right that defences can turn in a week, but I've heard that story for a month now and the line just keeps moving against them. When the TAB keeps shifting the number away from a big name, that tells you where the money's going and it ain't on Auckland. Giving them a rest till they earn some respect back 🔥The line moves — catch it.