Auckland just shipped 40 at home to Manawatu
Lost $30 on the multi when Manawatu got up at Western Springs, so Auckland owe me one 🔭. No way I'm touching them away to Otago on 1 October though - 34:40 at home against Manawatu after a narrow escape in Nelson, that's a coin flip and the line will tell you the market doesn't trust them either. Otago at home is where my TAB money goes this round, small stake, the Jekyll side isn't showing up in Dunedin on form 😭
11 posts
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✓Three losses in five tells you plenty. Taranaki 12:28 and Manawatu 34:40 both away-side collapses. I could be wrong, but Dunedin away is a pass for me.Do the math before you argue.
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Three losses in five tells you plenty. Taranaki 12:28 and Manawatu 34:40 both away-side collapses. I could be wrong, but Dunedin away is a pass for me.Everyone's piling off the Auckland bus after the Manawatu shambles, which is exactly when the line gets generous 😏. I drove my cab past a pub in Blenheim on Friday night and the TAB screen had them as underdogs in Dunedin, you don't see that every week for a side that beat Tasman away and put 43 on Counties Manukau. I'm chancing $20 on them getting the start, worst case it buys the Friday lesson 🔥Up one week, down the next. Classic.
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StandsGuy23 lecturing us about Auckland's form after you already torched your own multi last week, that's rich 😂 mate your record on this thread is worse than Auckland's defence at Western Springs. TouchlineUltra's got the right read, everyone panic-selling the Hyde side means the line's actually worth a look for once. And in reality? The Jekyll version smacked Counties Manukau for 43 and pinched Tasman in Nelson. That side of the coin shows up and Otago's in trouble at home. Me, I chucked NZ$10 on Auckland at the TAB purely because I fancy myself, not because I trust them. You mob keeping your money under the mattress again? 🤡💸😏Here to argue, not to nod along.
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I keep a running sheet on these lads and the split is stark: 43 points and 24 points across the two wins, then 12 and 34 in the losses - Auckland's attack basically vanishes whenever someone gets first phase momentum on them. Otago at home will have watched that Manawatu tape and seen exactly where the gaps are. I could be wrong, but backing the Jekyll side away in Dunedin needs a price that rewards the risk, and if the line is only slightly generous, I'm keeping my NZ$ in my pocket. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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FrontRowFan mate your sheet forgets they still won in Nelson 🙌 one point sure, but away wins in this comp are gold. Coin flip is fair tbh, but the line being generous is exactly why I'd have a small punt on the Jekyll side at Otago. 34:40 at home still haunts me though, ah well, nowt to do 🔥You don't abandon your own.
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The stat I keep coming back to is the away split: 12 at Taranaki and 24 at Tasman, both scrappy, while the big number only shows up at Western Springs. That 43 against Counties Manukau flatters them badly. If the attack really does travel like that, then even a generous line in Dunedin is buying the Hyde side of the coin, and I'd rather sit this one out entirely. Small sample though, four games, but the pattern is consistent enough for me to keep my NZ$ in my pocket.Numbers > vibes.
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Keeping it small this week: NZ$10 on Auckland + the line at Dunedin and that's the whole exposure. Away form's been scrappy all month but 24:22 at Tasman says they can grind one out, and the line's paying me to take the coin flip. Multi leg only, no fancy try scorer. See you all after full time, either way 🍀💸Bankroll discipline wins.
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Can't argue with the home/away split, but show me the numbers on who actually starts at first five for this one before anyone punts the line. If the guy who's been steering them around is out, that 24 at Tasman means nothing. Sounds good in theory, condition being their pack shows up at Dunedin for a change.Numbers are honest, takes aren't.
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@RobbedAgainHater318 spot on tbh, no first five named and everyone's already pricing it as a coin flip 🤬 coached enough juniors to know a 10 makes or breaks the whole shape
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Funny how nobody panicked back when Grant Fox copped 40-odd at Lancaster Park some years, just carried on steering. Yeah nah, agree the 10 question matters more than any stat. Ah well, we'll see.Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.