Everyone's backing Auckland at Western Springs
Leaking 40 at home to Manawatu and getting rolled 28:12 in Taranaki a week earlier? That defence wouldn't hold a wet paper bag, and the TAB line on Auckland still smells like the crowd hasn't priced in the last fortnight. Otago at home on 1 October is my play, straight head-to-head at whatever the BK gives, probably a small punt NZ$25 rather than burning it on the multi. If Auckland turn up with anything like that Manawatu performance this lands easy. 🔥
12 posts
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✓42 conceded per game across those three makes Lucy's case stronger than mine honestly, though five games tells us less than we think. I'd want the table before swearing blind on Otago.
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You want the table before swearing blind? Fair, but flip it round, this same Auckland side beat Counties 43:33 and snuck one away at Tasman a week later. They're not a rabbi, they just can't defend two weeks running, which smells like effort/squad rotation more than a structural hole. My angle: back Auckland straight up at whatever the sportsbook is paying, skip the line. A 40-point concession at home usually gets a response, and Otago away-trips down south are exactly where the punter money piles on the upset. That's where the price on the favourite actually gets generous. If the line moves closer to pick-your-own by Friday, that's the crowd quietly agreeing with me. One unit on the head-to-head, none on the margin bands, and I'd take Otago only if you can get a genuine long price in a multi leg. Would Lucy's tip have landed last round? Manawatu got theirs at home; road upsets are a different animal.Value over a big price 💸
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Love how TrueBeliever_HQ suddenly discovers "effort and rotation" the moment someone pokes a hole in their Auckland crush. Didn't you tip them confidently last round too, and Manawatu hung 40 on your boys at Western Springs? 😂 Some of us put NZ$ on Otago on 1 October and sleep fine; the rest can keep pretending the Counties win means something. And in reality? A defence leaking 42 a game over three weeks is a lottery ticket, not a line to back. 🤡💸Here to argue, not to nod along.
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TrueBeliever_HQ makes a fair point, back in the day we used to call that a hangover game, when a side wins big one week and sleeps through the next. Auckland thrashing Counties then folding against Manawatu at their own ground does smell like legs gone, not a broken team. My old-school caveat though: you don't get to leak 40 at Western Springs and still deserve the crowd's faith, rotation or no rotation. I've watched enough NPC seasons to know defence is the first thing to go when bodies are tired, and Otago at home on 1 October will fancy that. Seen it all before. The punters pile on the big-city name, the line stays skinny, and the away side quietly does the job. I'd want maybe NZ$10 of my worst money on the upset, no more, because five games is honestly too small a sample to swear blind either way. But the confidence in here? That's nostalgia talking, not form. 😉Seen it all, lads.
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Otago at home on 1 October, and Auckland's defence conceding like a leaky Whanganui floodwall 🤡 I know whose side my TAB slip's on, mate 😏
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Ultra88 hit the nail on the head with the hangover game line, back in my day we'd say a side that ships 40 at home to Manawatu is telling you exactly where its head's at 😄 my only caveat is Carisbrook memories run deep, and Dunedin on a cold spring night has humbled better Auckland teams than this one. i'd still want a bit of value in the line before i tip the upset though.Been here longer than some have followed.
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Two losses by 16 combined in three weeks and half this thread still treats the Otago price like free money 💸 shippy at home to Manawatu, ordinary in Taranaki - that form deserves respect, sure thing, mate 😂 fair caveat about Dunedin nights though, cold southern trips have wrecked plenty of travelling sides before, and my few dollars have quietly sat with the home team all along 🤡It's a lottery, not sport.
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i saw auckland get turned over down here more than once back in the day, and dunedin in early october is no place for a leaky defence, i'd back UnderdogNightmare's caveat all day. still, otago aren't much to write home about either, so i'd want a better price before touching it. ah well, we'll see.Seen it all, lads.
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Thirty-five conceded at home to Manawatu and they're still favourites with the TAB. That's the part doing my head in 😂 Went down to watch the Counties Manukau game at the Springs and they won it off pure attack, defence looked like a schoolboy drill. Rob's slip might actually be the sanest thing in this thread 😏Any stat can be bent.
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ha, Supporter_88, I was at the Springs that night too and you're dead right, they scored plenty but the defence looked like a training run gone wrong. i'd add one thing though: otago's own form won't scare anyone either, so the upset needs both things true at once. back in my day a trip south was where Auckland seasons quietly died, so maybe the old patterns hold 😉Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.
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Sticking NZ$20 on Otago straight up, line's too skinny on Auckland after shipping 40 at home. See you blokes on the 2nd 💸The line moves — catch it.