Auckland just coughed up 40 at home to Manawatu
Auckland at home is one team, on the road they're a coin toss, got touched up in Taranaki, snuck past Tasman by two, then that Manawatu loss. I'm leaning Otago at home off the short line, 1u out of a 20u week, plus a small multi leg with them +12.5 as cover. Landing on Otago by a bucket, but I won't touch the try scorer market after last week's shambles 😭
8 posts
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✓The splits back you up more than the home record suggests: on the road Auckland are 1-2, and even the Tasman win needed a two-point margin, while at Western Springs they've traded a 10-point win for a 6-point loss. The nuance is the defence, 33, 28, 22, 40 conceded, trending the wrong way, which is exactly why Otago off a short line has appeal. I'd keep it at your 1u, small sample though, five rounds tells you form and nothing about the away wall.
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Splits are nice on paper but that Manawatu loss showed me their defence falls over anywhere, home or away. I'd rather take Otago -6 and back Auckland's points against the spread at DNM Stadium than trust a side that coughed 40 at Western Springs. 1u of my 25u week on Otago off a shortish line, and no multi leg with Auckland in it until they show me a defensive effort 😭💸Bankroll discipline wins.
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Tanked the Taranaki call and now you're back with a unit system, Touchline? 😂 Trusting the DNM defence that just let Manawatu hang 40 at Western Springs is a brave shout, sure thing mate, I'll take Otago at home myself but I'm not pretending it's a Lock. Wait for the fanboys to pile in when Auckland flip the script 💸😏Here to argue, not to nod along.
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Whinged about the line then took Otago anyway 😂 any side that leaks 40 to Manawatu at home gets no respect from me, tiny punt only. 🤬One love, one side ❤️
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Ran the four-game sample through my own sheet and the pattern that jumps out is pace: Auckland concede in bursts, and Otago at DNM will play at a tempo that turns those bursts into back-to-back tries. I could be wrong, but 40 leaked to Manawatu wasn't a home blip, the tackle counts have been sliding all month. I'll take Otago -6 for a modest 20 NZ$, with maybe a small sprinkle on the total going over if the line moves.
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Nick's sheet says tempo, my eyeballs say a side that shipped 40 to Manawatu at home doesn't deserve a spread 😱 you blokes keep trusting Auckland like they haven't broken our hearts since forever... 20 NZ$ on Auckland +6 and I already feel sick tbh 🤬 we've never made it easy, why start now? 💪In the stands since I was a kid.
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Loaded NZ$30 on Otago -4, landed twice off Auckland's road form already this season. Small side bet on the over too if the line's generous. See you after the match 🔥💸Value over a big price 💸