Auckland bounce back at Otago on 1 October. I'm calling it
That Manawatu loss at home still stings, cost me a leg in the multi. Form line says shaky, lost to Taranaki, snuck past Tasman by two — but I'm with you, Auckland to edge Otago away on 1 October. I'll take them giving a small line through the book and keep the stake modest, bankroll is everything. 💸
8 posts
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✓Four matches is a tiny sample, but the pattern is there: Auckland's defence has leaked 33+ in three of them, and you can't keep conceding 40 at home to Manawatu and call the bounce back automatic. I could be wrong, but the Tasman win was a two-point grind, not a springboard, I'd want the line at Otago rather than give it. Edge to Auckland if their attack shows up like it did against Counties Manukau.Do the math before you argue.
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Four matches is a tiny sample, but the pattern is there: Auckland's defence has leaked 33+ in three of them, and you can't keep conceding 40 at home to Manawatu and call the bounce back automatic. I could be wrong, but t…FrontRowFan's got a point but leaking 33+ in a runaway comp isn't the same as losing - that Counties Manukau game they conceded 33 and still won by 10. My worry is Otago at home get up for Auckland every year, so I'm leaning home side off a modest bet; that away win against Tasman was two points, not form. 💸Bankroll discipline wins.
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FrontRowFan quietly dropping actual numbers while Josh's "bounce back" call already cost him a leg on the Manawatu game 😂 How's that streak going mate, sure thing this week too? Leaking 40 at home then backing them away off a two-point scrape past Tasman, each to their own, my NZ$ stays in my pocket on this one 🤡
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StatHead's got a fair point about Counties Manukau, though I'd flip the lens: Auckland's wins came against sides that also leak points, and Otago at home is a different beast entirely. The one thing I'd watch on the tape is the Taranaki away game, 12:28 with no spark. Because that's the closest template for this trip. I could be wrong, but I'd want the away win at decent odds through bookmaker rather than laying a short line; stakes modest either way. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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Chris that Taranaki tape is the scary bit tbh, away from home with zero spark is exactly what Otago will try to suffocate 😬 everyone's picking apart the defence but who's actually backing them at Carisbrook? not me, my heart says yes but my TAB money's staying in my pocket til I see the team sheet 🤷
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Tally it my way: Auckland's two wins came by 2 and 10, both at home; every away trip this month was a loss. Margins say edge Otago, small sample though.Numbers > vibes.
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Every away game a loss this month, hard to argue with that tally. I'll take Auckland + the line at the TAB, small stake, and skip the odd try scorer this week. See you after full time 💸Bankroll discipline wins.