Wellington have leaked 142 points in three straight losses
Checked the TAB already and I'm not touching Wellington at all until they show a pulse, 142 points leaked in three games, even giving Waikato a start at Hnry Stadium looks like burning NZ$. If I had to call it, Waikato win at home odds short enough that I'd fold them into a multi rather than back them straight, and Taranaki away on the 4th is a definite write-off. My tip: Waikato by plenty on 27 September. 💸
12 posts
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✓Agree with you, though I'd add a nuance: the worst of it was that 19:66 at Canterbury. Away from Hnry Stadium they've actually conceded closer to 35 per game across the Tasman and Northland matches. Sample size is tiny, three games, but home to Waikato on 27 September is the only spot I'd even consider them; Taranaki away on 4 October is a write-off in my tables. 📊
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Agree with you, though I'd add a nuance: the worst of it was that 19:66 at Canterbury. Away from Hnry Stadium they've actually conceded closer to 35 per game across the Tasman and Northland matches. Sample size is tiny, …Closer to 35 a game still loses, mate. I'd rather take Waikato giving a start than touch Wellington even at Hnry. Burnt NZ$ on them last month, haven't landed since Canterbury. 🔥Bankroll discipline wins.
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Remind me of your ROI, StatHead? You were tipping Wellington as a Lock last month too, weren't ya 😂 142 in three weeks and now everyone's a genius 🤡Any stat can be bent.
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Gary stirring the pot again 😂 everyone was a genius last month aye. Still nah, 66 at Canterbury is burned into my brain, no way I'm tipping we to stop the rot against Waikato even at Hnry... Taranaki away, nowt to do but pray 🙏 ah well
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Replying to FixIsInPTSD mainly. I could be wrong, but "closer to 35 a game away" is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. Context matters with small samples: that's two matches, one of which was Canterbury running up 66. My own table has Wellington's defensive set-piece and kick-chase numbers falling off a cliff since the Tasman game, and that trend matters more than the venue split, which is basically noise at n=2. So my read: Waikato at Hnry on 27 September is where they're most likely to stop the bleeding, purely because home fixtures in this competition tend to tighten scorelines, but I wouldn't put NZ$ on the win itself - the value, if any, is in the total going under what the TAB might price after three blowouts. Taranaki away on the 4th? Write-off territory unless something changes selection-wise this week. 📊
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66 at Canterbury, yep, saw that live and still have nightmares 😱 but NickDiehard's got a point tbh - one mad game skews everything. Waikato at Hnry, someone's gotta front up, surely?? 🤬 ah well, nowt to doYou don't abandon your own.
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Funny how Gary's having a go at NickDiehard for the same maths Gary clearly never did himself. I've got this round logged in my spreadsheet with the others, and here's the nuance: 142 across three reads ugly, but strip out Canterbury and Wellington conceded 94 in two, still bad, yet a different conversation. Also worth remembering Tasman away was a four-try game, not a blowout. My line: Waikato at Hnry on 27 September is where I'd draw the line between "rot" and "crisis". Home crowd, a week to fix tackle technique, if they can't get within shouting distance there, then Taranaki away on 4 October is a pass for me too, and I'd rather put that NZ$ on something with a visible pulse. Small sample though, three games - I'm cautious about burying them just yet. 📊Numbers > vibes.
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94 in two still bad?? mate that's nearly 50 a game 🤬 you can't spreadsheet your way out of that, sorry. Tip: Waikato at Hnry by plenty, Taranaki away even worse. Anyone actually brave enough to put NZ$ on we? 😱
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@OldSchool_SinceDayOne2012 nah 50 a game is straight up unacceptable whoever dresses it up 🤬 watched bits of that Canterbury mess and the defence just fell off tackles in the last 20, looked like the boys had nothing left in the tank Trend Chris pointed out is the scary bit tbh, getting worse each week not better. I coach the juniors here and even our 14s know you tuck in the inside shoulder, some of these blokes looked like they'd never been told Brave enough to put NZ$ on we at Hnry? nah mate I'd sooner give my money away at the TAB. Waikato by plenty I reckon, ah well, nowt to do 💪On the terraces since I was a kid.
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OldSchool_SinceDayOne2012's "you can't spreadsheet your way out of that" line made me chuckle, but the trend within the 142 matters more than the total: 24, 47, 66 conceded, week on week, so they're getting worse, not steadying. Home to Waikato on 27 September I'd give them a puncher's chance at Hnry, but Taranaki away on 4 October I can't back with my own NZ$, and I could be wrong, yet the trajectory alone is enough for me to pass on both. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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ChrisDiehard387's right, 24 to 47 to 66 is a horrid trend. Waikato at home only if the line gives Wellington double digits, otherwise I'm on Taranaki to cover. 💸Bankroll discipline wins.