Wellington to finally click at home against Waikato
0-3 and I still can't walk past this one. Loaded up on Wellington for the 27th at Hnry Stadium, the Canterbury game (19:66) can happen to anyone once, but three straight, all with 28+ conceded, means the market's pricing them like a basket case and that's exactly when the value shows up. Home ground, Waikato coming in, and TAB's line will be short enough that I'd take Wellington head-to-head plus a small interest on the odd try scorer rather than trying to pick the margin, those blowout margins have burned me before, never again chasing a band.
Lesson from Saturday's multi: the leg I put on and forgotten was the only one that landed. So keep it simple - back them to finally click at home, modest stake, and if the Taranaki trip on 4 October goes sideways too, then I'll accept the season's a write-off and stop tipping them. 🍀💸
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✓Anyone telling you the Canterbury game "can happen to anyone once" should look at the other two as well, because 52 against Northland and 42 against Tasman means this is a pattern, not a bad afternoon. I could be wrong, but over three rounds Wellington have conceded 122 points, which is over 40 a game, and in the NPC that sample size is small enough that one strong week can flip the narrative, context matters here. The case for the 27th is real though: home fixtures at Hnry Stadium have historically behaved differently from away trips, and two of their three losses were on the road, including that horror at Canterbury. I'd temper Andy's enthusiasm slightly, I'd rather back them off a shorter line than the outright, given the defence hasn't shown anything to trust yet. Then the Taranaki trip on 4 October tells us whether we saw a genuine turnaround or one soft home outing. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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Pattern or not, FrontRowFan, the line's already moved well past that point, the market's baked all three losses in and there's nothing left on it. I've kept my stake small because the defence is leaking 40 a week, but my play is Waikato with the start if anything, not Wellington straight up. If they click on the 27th I'll look at the Taranaki trip before touching another multi. 💸The line moves — catch it.
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Remind me of your record on Wellington games, Andy? Pretty sure you talked up a big one earlier in the season too and we all saw how that went 😂 Now you're chucking NZ$ on a side leaking 28+ every single week like it's a value play and not a charity donation. 19:66 at Canterbury wasn't an off afternoon, and 42 at Tasman says the same thing. Katie taking Waikato with the start is the only sane read in this thread honestly. But sure, back the click, mate - hope the TAB thanks you for the interest-free loan 🤡💸Any stat can be bent.
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Katie's read is the sane one. Wellington have conceded 28+ in all three, and one home date against a pattern that size is hope, not value. I'd need two clean quarters of tape before touching them at Hnry.
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Katie and Fix are reading the table right, but there's a nuance here: all three losses came away from home or under travel legs. Tasman away, Canterbury away, then Northland was actually home, fair, that one kills half my argument, but the Canterbury score in particular smells like a set-piece collapse rather than a season-wide defensive problem. Compare the tape: against Northland they conceded five tries off turnovers in fifteen minutes of second-half possession. That's structure and conditioning over forty minutes, and it's fixable in a short turnaround if the coaching staff actually drills it. So my position sits between the camps: I wouldn't touch Wellington straight up at whatever price the TAB is offering, small sample though three rounds is, and home advantage at Hnry is worth maybe a converted try on the line, nowhere near enough to cover a side leaking 40 a week.Numbers > vibes.
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Nah Tom, home night means nothing when you're leaking 28+ every week 😱 that Northland game was AT home! Good luck with your $20 tho 🔥One love, one side ❤️
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Northland was at home though, that's what stops me going full sail on this 😭 Put a small NZ$10 leg in the multi for the 27th anyway, head-to-head only, no line, if the defence is still leaking 28+ I'll know by halftime. See you blokes after the match, either my bankroll gets a top-up or Waikato bury me too 💸The line moves — catch it.