Wellington have conceded 160 points in three straight losses
No chance I'm backing Wellington, 160 points shipped in three weeks and I don't see a reset by the 27th. Waikato away win is my play, I'd want them around the -$10 range before I even look, and anything shorter than -6 on the line feels like a trap given they'll still be bleeding confidence at Hnry Stadium. Shoved NZ$20 into the TAB multi with the Taranaki game on 4 October as well, home side there too. 💸
13 posts
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✓Everyone's piling in on Waikato but what happens if the market knows something we don't? The line's already steep, so where's the value? I'd rather leave that game alone and put my tenner in the multi on Taranaki at home on the 4th instead.Bankroll discipline wins.
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An average of 53 points against per match over three weeks, Chloe, and the trend is worsening rather than plateauing: 42, then 66, then 52 at their own ground. The home loss to Northland is the one that kills any case for me, if you can't hold at Hnry Stadium, why expect a reset in a week? I could be wrong, but I'd want Waikato at roughly -10 or better before touching the line. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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StandsGuy23 lecturing us about value 😂 remind me of your ROI last time you "left a game alone"? You tanked that Taranaki multi too, mate. 🤡💸It's a lottery, not sport.
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Chloe's right, seen worse defensive shambles in the amateur days and they don't fix themselves in a week. But no stake from me either way. Ah well, we'll see.Seen it all, lads.
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StandsGuy23 quietly avoiding the Waikato game and tipping his tenner into a Taranaki multi instead is the most gutless "prediction" I've seen all week 😂 Shipping 52 at Hnry Stadium to Northland means the whole squad's lost the plot, so sure thing mate, back them if you want, just don't come crying when Waikato run up another half-century and my TAB slip pays out. Remind me of your ROI again? 🤡💸😏
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haha rob, easy on the young fella, he's only dodging a game where the line's gone silly, that's not gutless that's sense. chloe's got it right in my book, shipping 66 in christchurch then 52 on your own patch at hnry, that's not a slump you fix with a training week. back in my day a side conceding like that would get marched to the changing sheds mid-match for a talking-to, and half of them would come out better for it 😄 i watched a lot of shield days and defence like that was always about heart, not drills. so yes, waikato for me on the 27th, though i'd rather take them on the line early than chase a number that keeps growing. as for the taranaki trip on the 4th - away sides off three hidings usually either fold or grow a spine, and i've been wrong picking which for forty years, so i'll pass and just enjoy it from the couch with a cuppa 😉Remember when the grass was greener 🌱
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52 at home to Northland is the one that kills me, your own patch, your own fans, and you ship half a hundred. Waikato at Hnry is free money at the TAB. 😏
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Back in my day a bad run like this meant a dry training week and a stern word, not a magic fix, and I watched some terrible defences down at Carisbrook that never got patched by Saturday 😄 so I'm with Matchday and Chloe here - 66 in Christchurch, 52 on your own turf at Hnry, that's a side that's stopped tackling, full stop. Waikato at home on the 27th feels like the obvious play and I'd lean the same way. One caveat though, from watching as long as I have: sides this wounded either stay broken or turn up feral in front of their own crowd, and the TAB knows it, the line's probably been shortened to nothing worth a punt. I'm not staking the pension on it. As for Taranaki away on the 4th, I'd leave that alone entirely; two weeks is a long time in this competition. Seen worse turnarounds, mind you.Been here longer than some have followed.
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Everyone here tipping Waikato like it's a raffle win 😏 what does the line actually say though? When the TAB price is that obvious, someone's already cleaned up. I'd rather lump on the 4 October Taranaki game, quieter money there.Here to argue, not to nod along.
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seeing chloe and the lads pile on waikato makes me think of the time i backed a dead cert at athletic park and the "dead cert" turned up drunk 😄 anyway i agree with the direction of travel here - 66 and then 52 at your own ground, i've seen worse but not often - my only caveat is home games do funny things in september, so i'd rather wait for the line than lump on early like rob says about obvious prices.seeing chloe and the lads pile on waikato makes me think of the time i backed a dead cert at athletic park and the "dead cert" turned up drunk 😄 anyway i agree with the direction of travel here - 66 and then 52 at your own ground, i've seen worse but not often - my only caveat is home games do funny things in september, so i'd rather wait for the line than lump on early like rob says about obvious prices.Seen it all, lads.
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Same read here, 52 at your own ground is where my money stops trusting a side. Locked in NZ$ on Waikato straight out and the -6 or better if the line drifts my way, plus a small saver on the 4 October Taranaki trip since Robbed's got a point about the quiet money. See you after the 27th, hopefully laughing all the way to the TAB. 🔥💸Value over a big price 💸
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Everyone here tipping Waikato like it's a raffle win 😏 what does the line actually say though? When the TAB price is that obvious, someone's already cleaned up. I'd rather lump on the 4 October Taranaki game, quieter mon…Quiet money at Taranaki, sure thing mate 😏 the line's moved a mile already, everyone and their dog saw that one. Get in earlier or get nothing.It's a lottery, not sport.