Two different Steammakers show up at Navigation Homes Stadium
That Otago hiding at Navigation Homes still haunts me, had them in a multi that week, gone 💸. The 47-24 Southland version and the 21-50 Otago version are two different teams, and Hawke's Bay away form won't tell you which one rocks up. I'm keen on the home side +X at the TAB purely on the Northland graft travelling well, small stake only, the line's too wobbly to load up on 🔥
16 posts
-
✓That ten-day gap between the Southland and Otago games is what bugs me. I keep my own table round by round, and the home splits are stark: 47-24 over Southland on the 6th, then 21-50 to Otago on the 17th, same turf, same squad on paper. That's a 52-point swing at Navigation Homes inside eleven days, which smells like turnover, injuries or just a flat Thursday-type effort rather than a true home/away pattern. I could be wrong, but the away result at Northland (22-19, gritty, low-scoring) suggests the travelling version is at least competitive and tight in the margins. For the 3rd against Hawke's Bay, my read is that the home tag alone is worth very little here until we see which Steammakers show up, I'd want to see team news before touching the line. If you're pricing it purely off the Southland blowout, you're buying the outlier; if you're pricing off Otago, you're probably getting value the other way.Do the math before you argue.
-
Same turf means nothing, Chris, it's the six-day turnaround after that Auckland road trip that did them against Otago. On a full week's prep at home I'd take them, even with the line. Small stake only though 💸The line moves — catch it.
-
Six-day turnaround excuse, FanaticZone? Didn't you say the same thing before Otago cooked them 21-50? 😂 That loss cost me a tidy multi too, but hey, some punters never learn 🤡💸Here to argue, not to nod along.
-
Ten days between those two home games too, so the turnaround excuse cuts both ways 🤔 Otago found the holes and Southland didn't, simple as. Still backing our lot at the Pukekohe for Hawke's Bay though, small punt on the TAB and no more 😅You don't abandon your own.
-
I keep my own tables too, and the angle nobody's mentioned is who they beat: Southland shipped 24 to them, Otago piled on 50, so the swing tracks with opposition quality more than turf or turnaround. Northland away was a grind, 22:19, which suggests the floor is closer to the Southland version. Depends how you read Hawke's Bay's away ceiling, but I'd want the line to move my way before touching it. Small sample though, two home games tell you almost nothing.Numbers > vibes.
-
BadBeatKing's got a point tbh, but 22:19 over Northland doesn't exactly scream "floor" to me, that was a proper scrape 😅 we nearly chucked it away late there. And RobbedAgainMerchant taking the mickey about excuses, mate, you lost a multi too so how are you the smart one here? 😂 Thing is, you just know which Steeamaker turns up on 3 October and nobody does, that's the whole punt. Hawke's Bay away form tells me nuthin, like Chris said. Small punt at the TAB, through thick and thin with our lot... ah well, nowt to do but watch it unfold 🤷🔥
-
Two things I track in my table that nobody's raised yet: margin trend across the month, and where the points come from. Counties Manukau's sequence reads 47 conceded 24, then 43 conceded away at Auckland, then 50 conceded at home, then a 22:19 scrap up north. That's the defence leaking worse each week until Northland, where it tightened right up. I could be wrong, but a side that rebuilds its defensive shape on the road usually carries that structure home with them, the Otago blowout looks more like a one-off collapse than a baseline. The real question for the 3rd is whether Hawke's Bay can punish a mid-game wobble the way Otago did, because Southland and Northland both let Counties off the hook. If the Steammakers' line at the TAB prices them as the 47:24 version, that's where I'd fade; if it respects the Northland grind, there's value the other way.Do the math before you argue.
-
FrontRowFan mate, defence leaking 50 at home then holding Northland to 19 in a week? That's not a trend, that's a coin flip 😅 Everyone's table says the floor is the Southland version but I watched that Northland scrape, we nearly gifted it late. Which Stemmakers show up on 3 October? Heart says the 47-24 mob, head says don't touch it beyond a cheeky TAB multi 🤷♂️
-
Fifty conceded at home in September is the number I'd weight most heavily, if only because home matches are where you'd expect their best defensive structure to hold. I could be wrong, but a 29-point swing on the same surface inside a fortnight usually signals something structural, set-piece or kicking game, that a good Hawke's Bay pack can find again. That 22:19 at Northland buys them benefit of the doubt, but a one-point scrape away says grind, not control. I'm leaning away from Counties Manukau on the line, personally.
-
NickDiehard, one 50-pointer and suddenly it's gospel? 🤣 That Otago game stunk of a bad week, not a bad team. Held Northland to 19 after. I'm backing the home lot 🔴⚫You don't abandon your own.
-
Gary's got a point, but the nuance I keep circling is opponent quality: Southland and Northland are bottom-half defences, Auckland and Otago punish you. Hawke's Bay sit somewhere in between, so the Otago blowout is a bad comp for this one. I'd weight the Auckland away tape more than the 50-pointer, same four-week sample, more honest signal. 📊
-
FixIsInPTSD with the "opponent quality" hedge 😅 mate, Hawke's Bay in between? That's a coin flip with extra steps. Coin flip or not, I'm on we turn up 🔴⚫On the terraces since I was a kid.
-
FixIsInPTSD's opponent-quality angle has some merit, on condition that you treat Hawke's Bay as genuinely middling, which nobody in this thread has actually shown with data. One 50-point hideling against Otago tells you plenty about a defence that folds at home when someone runs hard at them, that's a pattern, not a bad week, and Southland was three weeks ago. Show me the numbers on Hawke's Bay's away scoring and I'll reconsider; until then I'd leave this one alone rather than punt on a coin flip.Numbers are honest, takes aren't.
-
-
Fair call from the analyst, tho back in my day every side up north could punish you on their day. I just want to see both Steamers halves turn up same time 😄Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.