Counties Manukau just edged Northland 22:19
That 22:19 at Northland reads like pure escape to me - they got pumped 21:50 by Otago at home not long before, so I'm not buying it as a form signal. Hawke's Bay away trip to Pukekohe on 3 October, I'd have the Bay as favourites at bookmaker and I'll likely take them giving the line in a small single rather than touch the Steamers head-to-head. Already burned enough NZ$ on Counties ups and downs this season. 💸
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✓I'd push back slightly on reading the Otago game as the baseline. Look at the September spread: 47:24 over Southland at home, then 33:43 to Auckland away, then 21:50 to Otago at home, then a 22:19 grind out at Northland. That's a three-point range on the two wins and double-digit margins on both losses, Counties Manukau have been outscored across the month overall, so TrueFan4Life's read on the form is fair, but the Southland result shows the ceiling at Navigation Homes is real. The nuance here is venue split: their only heavy home loss came against an Auckland side that's a different class, and Otago's 50 is the outlier in a sample of four. Small sample though, four games tells you almost nothing statistically, so I wouldn't price them off it either way. My lean for 3 October: Hawke's Bay on the line at the TAB, but I'd want the margin to be short, because Pukekohe has already produced one blowout win this season and home ground is the one variable Northland didn't have to deal with.
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Fair pushback, but that 47:24 over Southland was the outlier in my eyes. The other three September results tell me this side leaks points badly. I'd have Hawke's Bay giving the line comfortably at the TAB on 3 October and I'd rather take the Bay straight than touch Counties at any price. That Northland escape was noise, reckon the line will move their way by kickoff anyway 🔥Value over a big price 💸
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Chloe, weren't you the one backing Counties last week before they shipped 50 at home to Otago? 😂 Wild how quick you flip to "leaks points badly" the second the market moves. In reality? That Northland grind tells me more than a 30-point hammering by Auckland's full squad. And in reality the TAB will price the Bay too short for my taste, you two can gift them my $20. 🤡💸Here to argue, not to nod along.
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Robbed's got a point about that Northland grind, they never stopped scrapping up there 😉 but I've seen worse sides than Counties dress up one lucky escape as form. Seen plenty of them at Eden Park over the years, one good win then back to leaking like a sieve the next week. I'd lean Bay giving the line too, but I'd keep the stake small, Pukekohe on a spring arvo can be a funny old place.Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.
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OldSchool, you've nailed my worry about this one 😉. I sat in the stand at Navigation Homes the night Otago put 50 on them, and the crowd around me went from chirpy to silent before halftime - that's how quick it turned. One gritty 22:19 up north doesn't wash that out of my memory, and I've watched enough September rugby since the amateur days to know a scrap win at Northland can be more about Northland than Counties. That said, my caveat: home at Pukekohe on 3 October does count for something, and Hawke's Bay won't fancy a wind-blown Saturday there. So I'd lean Bay on the TAB line as Chloe says, but I'm not stacking the house on it. Put aside what you can lose smiling, as my old man used to say. Slight lean, small stake, no hero stuff. 😄Remember when the grass was greener 🌱
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Anyone actually sat through a Counties game at Navigation Homes this season? I went to the Southland one, decent crack, but shipped 50 at home to Otago a week later. That tells me enough 😏Any stat can be bent.
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@BadBeatAndy so one bad half means you know everything about the joint now? 😏 Southland was a decent crack you said yourself, and the Northland game they just ground out a win when it mattered. Teams ship 50 to Otago, it happens, they're not the only mob to get spanked this season. I was at the Northland finish and they could've folded after the lead went, they didn't. That's worth something even if it was ugly. StatHead throwing it in the multi on the TAB, fair enough, but Andy reckons the ground tells him everything without sitting through 80 minutes himself 🤡 Remind me of your ROI again?Any stat can be bent.
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Right with FixIsIn on the Otago night, I watched that collapse from my couch in Invercargill. But Hawke's Bay away form isn't bulletproof either, so the line's not silly. Ah well, we'll see.Seen it all, lads.
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Sorted my weekend then, small on Counties at home plus Hawke's Bay in the multi, keep it modest after that 21:50 Otago night trimmed my bankroll. The 22:19 Northland escape was too skinny to trust, so I'm treating it as noise. See you after the match, either way I'll know if it landed 💸Bankroll discipline wins.