North Harbour to smash Bay of Plenty away on 4 October
Away trip to the Bay on 4 October, I'm backing Harbour, but with eyes open. They've scored for fun lately (57:42 over Northland, 32:21 vs Otago) and the only loss was a one-pointers to Canterbury, so the form is real. Loaded up a small slice of bankroll on them straight at the TAB; the head-to-head price looks decent value, and the line probably sits inside a converted try too. 🔥
10 posts
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✓Backed Harbour all month and got paid for it, so I'm biased, but the sample does hold up. I keep my own table each round and the pattern is clear: four wins from five since early September, and the one defeat was Canterbury by a single point, that's a one-score outlier, not a trend. What I'd flag is the away split: 31:24 at Hawke's Bay is their only road result in this run, and travelling to the Bay is a different assignment to hosting Northland. That 57:42 shootout flatters the attack; I could be wrong, but I'd expect a tighter game plan on 4 October. Worth backing Harbour straight, though the line will probably be shorter than the home form suggests, so mind your stake sizing there. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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Four wins from five sounds sweet until you remember three of those were at Albany, where the crowd carries them. Away form's thinner, Hawke's Bay was a scrap at 31:24, not a statement. I'm putting my NZ$20 on Bay of Plenty at home instead, Harbour straight up but I won't touch them giving a line on the road. 🔥Up one week, down the next. Classic.
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TouchlineUltra talking about away form is rich, remind me of your ROI again? 😏 Hawke's Bay away still counts as a win mate, scrap or not. Harbour by plenty.Any stat can be bent.
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TouchlineUltra has actually put his finger on the real question, and I've got the split in my own table to back him up: at Albany Harbour are averaging 38 points scored across those three home games, while the single away trip to Hawke's Bay produced 31 against a side that conceded freely all month. One away fixture is a tiny sample though, so I'd hesitate to call their road form either good or bad - it's simply untested. My lean: Harbour to win, but I'd want a line rather than taking them straight. Bay of Plenty at home typically keeps these things to a score or two, and a one-point loss to Canterbury shows Harbour can be reeled in when the opposition slows the tempo. If the margin line sits above 10, that's where the value debate lives; below it, I'd take Harbour. 📊
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Harbour won at Hawke's Bay too though, bro 🤔 one scrap away win doesn't kill the form. Backing them all day, fired up 🔥💪You don't abandon your own.
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FixIsInPTSD, could you run the defensive side of that split too? I could be wrong, but the 57:42 Northland shootout and 42 points conceded tell me Harbour's attack travels fine while the defence is what worries me at Rotorua on 4 October. I'd rather see what Bay of Plenty have leaked at home before I touch the line either way.Do the math before you argue.
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42 conceded in one game and suddenly everyone's an analyst 😅 mate that Northland shootout was a strip of footy, they still PUT UP 57. Hawke's Bay away they held them to 24, defence travels when it has to 🔥 backing Harbour, what a result coming in Rotorua 💪Heart with the team, head on pause.
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FrontRowFan, pulled the defensive column out for you because the split is a bit lopsided. At Albany Harbour conceded 21, 25 and 42 across the three home games, the Northland match is the outlier inflating that to just under 30 a game, and if you drop it they're giving up exactly 23 a night at home. The lone road sample is Hawke's Bay: 31 scored, 24 conceded against a side that leaked points all month, so context matters there too. My worry is a different one entirely. Every positive data point in the sample comes from North Harbour Stadium or one generous Hawke's Bay defence, and Rotorua in October is a proper trip, travel day, weather, a Bay of Plenty side with nothing to lose at home. I could be wrong, but a one-game away sample is too thin for me to price Harbour as a comfortable away favourite. I'd want a line around level or better before touching it, and even then only a small unit. The attack travels, sure, whether the whole package does is the actual question. 📊
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Been driving the night shift in Tauranga all week so this one's basically my local derby money 😄 Set it up on the way home: Harbour straight head-to-head and threw the odd try scorer on top in the multi, single unit of the bankroll, once it's placed it's on and forgotten. NickDiehard's numbers read right to me - drop that Northland circus and they're giving up low 20s a night, and Hawke's Bay away proved the defence travels. Small worry is Rotorua's always a scrappy trip, but 4 October I'm confident. See you blokes after the match, either drinking on the payout or crying into a bourbon 🍺🔥The line moves — catch it.