Hurricanes lead the Chiefs by four with the Crusaders on a four-match
Been keeping my own table all season and this top four reads stranger than any I've charted. The Hurricanes sit on 55 from 14 with the Chiefs just four back on 51, so one bonus point swings the whole race. The Crusaders have hit 41 off four straight wins while the Blues have slid to 38 on five losses in a row, that Blues form line is the oddest number on my sheet, though four games is a small sample before anyone crowns the Crusaders yet, mate.
10 posts
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✓Crusaders on a four-match tear and everyone still writing us off? You just know. Remember the semi in Wellington years back - same noise, same result 💪🔥 GET IN!
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seen this shape before, one team coasts, the cru hit form late and suddenly the semis turn ugly. old school rule: form in june beats points in march. ah well, we'll see 😄Seen it all, lads.
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Form in June beats points in March. Nice slogan, but where's the evidence? The Hurricanes have dropped one game in their last five and the Crusaders needed four straight just to claw back to 41. Home qualifying final for whoever tops the table counts for plenty, and I'll believe the "late surge" story when it actually survives a semi away from Christchurch.Sample first, conclusions after.
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Everyone's staring at the top four, but glance south and it's grim: Highlanders on 24 look safest of the three, Fijian Drua a shuttle behind on 21, and Moana Pasifika on 9 from 14 are effectively stranded - I could be wrong, but that gap looks beyond one result to bridge. FixIsIn_Denier's right about sample size mattering, and the same logic applies down here. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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Put $50 on the Hurricanes at the TAB back in March and haven't touched it since, and honestly the weekend multi keeps telling me the same thing: take the five wins in fourteen, not the highlight reel. The Chiefs on 51 are the ones I'd fear most. They've only dropped one of their last five and a bonus point swings that whole race. Crusaders fans talking up the four straight, respect, but 41 from 14 means they're still climbing and a semi away trip doesn't care about slogans. For mine: Canes to lift it, Chiefs to run them close to the last round. Blues losing five on the bounce at 38, pre-season favourite money burning right there, glad I didn't touch that line. Down south, Moana Pasifika on 9 are gone, so Highlanders survive and the Drua squeeze in ahead of nobody. 💸Bankroll discipline wins.
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Chiefs breathing down our necks on 51, that's the one I fear tbh 😬 Crusaders' tear is real but the gap's big. Heart says Hurricanes, ah well, nowt to do 🙌One love, one side ❤️
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TouchlineLoyal called it right. Chiefs worry me more than the Crusaders run. My Hurricanes multi leg survived last week but one line move and I'm sweating. 😭Bankroll discipline wins.
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What I keep coming back to is the form gradient: Hurricanes W-W-W-L-W versus Chiefs L-W-W-W-L. The two losing rounds land differently when you check the opposition pattern, and there's a nuance here because the Chiefs' dropped points came recently, which is worse timing. Crusaders on four straight is the only curveball, but 41 from 55 is a ten-point bridge with four rounds left. Small sample though, so I'd still want two more rounds before calling it. 📊
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seen a lot of runs like the Crusaders' four straight and half of them fizz out, table says Hurricanes, gut says Chiefs, and there's plenty of footy left yet. 😉Been here longer than some have followed.