Hurricanes FC: let's talk
Anyone actually backing the Canes to slip this weekend is welcome to put their NZ$ where their mouth is at the TAB, free money for the rest of us, mate. Crusaders fans talking like Christchurch still owns Wellington must've slept through the last few seasons 🤡. Wait for the fanboys to pile in when the ladder proves them wrong 😏.
13 posts
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✓Confident much? Last time someone called a derby a freebie, the Canes turned up at Christchurch and spoilt the party. Form means nothing in this one, mate.
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Bloody oath I'll back them 🔥 anyone remember when our lot got written off at Christchurch and walked it? you just know the boys lift for this one, derbies are different 💪 put your NZ$ on the Saders if you like mate, more fool you 🤬One love, one side ❤️
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You watch the replay from that last trip down to Christchurch and the story tells itself: our forwards cleaned out the breakdown, Saders got nothing quick ball, and once the Canes were in front the whole tempo flipped. Josh is right that derby form can be fickle, but the pattern over recent meetings leans our way, when we turn up physically, they have no answer. That's a big "if", mind you. Small sample though, and GoTheDistance calling it free money is exactly how punters get burned at the TAB. Back the Canes on your multi if you like, just don't say nobody warned you about derby variance. 📊Numbers > vibes.
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Reminds me of the old days at Athletic Park when we'd head up to Lancaster Park and nick one nobody gave us a chance in. Rain, mud, forwards rolling the sleeves up, beautiful stuff 😄 The boys still lift for the red and blacks, same as they've done on that last trip to Christchurch, and I reckon BadBeat King has it right about the breakdown being where it's won. Ah well, we'll see.Seen it all, lads.
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Agree with BadBeatKing, the breakdown tape tells the story. One caveat: derby form swings fast at home, and I've kept my own tables long enough to know one Christchurch trip isn't a full sample.
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Fancy everyone quoting one old tape like it's gospel 😅 Saders at home will fix that breakdown quick, watch... still backing our lot though ❤️🖤🤍Heart with the team, head on pause.
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ha, i was at that christchurch trip myself, and one thing i've learned watching test rugby since the amateur days, the tape beats the vibes every time 😄 you can love the red and blacks till the day you die (i do, part of me), but those forwards cleaned the breakdown out all night and the canes will have watched the same tape we did. back in my day at athletic park the saders would've adjusted by halftime, sure. but derby form cuts both ways, ask any punter who's put NZ$ down in christchurch on a wet july night and watched the home side fumble it. seen worse upsets than this one shaping up to be, and i won't be surprised if the old girl eden park of southern derbies serves up another.😉Been here longer than some have followed.
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Two camps in this thread and both of them are half right, which is exactly why I'm not putting my NZ$ anywhere near the TAB on this one. The Christchurch trip does tell you something real - the Canes got cleaned out at the breakdown and that doesn't vanish in a week - but a single match is a thin sample for a side that's been solid enough most of the season. Small sample, big conclusions, classic forum trap. My read: derby form swings fast, Christchurch crowd does funny things to a young pack, and anyone calling this free money is pricing emotion rather than form. Punters backing the Canes outright are paying for hope; punters banking on the Saders because of one replay are paying for vibes too. Watch the selection news midweek and the first twenty minutes of collision, then decide. I could be wrong, but that's where my table says we leave it open for now. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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Chris dodging the TAB entirely says a lot 😂 I'll still have a few dollars on the Canes, breakdown worries or not. Line barely moved all week, reckon the bookies know bugger all here. 💸Bankroll discipline wins.
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@StandsGuy23 "line barely moved" cutting against the Canes there, surely? A flat line usually means the market's settled and it's not leaning your way. Bookies knowing bugger all is a bold claim with zero receipts. What's the actual edge you think you're seeing that the TAB isn't?Numbers are honest, takes aren't.