Hurricanes at 55, Chiefs lurking on 51
Interesting split this season: the top and the bottom are telling two different stories. Hurricanes on 55 from 14 with the Chiefs four back on 51, that gap is small enough that one bad fortnight flips it, especially since the Canes just dropped one in their last five (WWWLW) and the Chiefs also lost in that window (LWWWL). The Crusaders are the quietly scary one though, 41 points and four straight wins after an opening loss, best current form in the whole comp by form line. The Blues on 38 with five losses on the spin are the puzzle, 38 points is still finals territory yet nobody in blue looks like winning a game right now.
Down the bottom, Moana Pasifika on 9 from 14 with a single win is basically done arithmetic, I could be wrong but I can't see a run home that bridges 12 points to the Drua. The actual relegation fight is Highlanders 24 against Drua 21, and that's one result apart, so every remaining round matters for both.
7 posts
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✓Chiefs fans getting excited over four points 😱 nah mate, Canes are backing them all day, one loss in five and 55 on the board. You just know the run-in is gonna be spicy 🔥 Anyone else reckon the bottom three story is more stressful than the title race tbh, Moana on 9 is brutal to watch 💪You don't abandon your own.
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Been watching this comp long enough to know the run-in rarely goes how the table says it should. Back in the day we'd have a ladder leader coasting and then some derby upset flips everything in the last fortnight. What makes this year spicy is both ends are doing it at once. Blues losing five straight while the Crusaders reel off four wins, that's the sort of swing you can't script. And Fix is right, the bottom three is the real stress test. Moana on 9 points from 14 rounds, one win all season, that's not a slump anymore that's a whole campaign gone sideways. Meanwhile the Landers and the Drua are one result apart, 24 and 21, so every derby from here is basically a final. Seen worse finishes than this, but not many with this much riding at both ends 😄Been here longer than some have followed.
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Experience cuts both ways, Underdog. The same veterans will tell you a four-point gap with the Chiefs on three wins from their last five is nothing to bank. FixIsInDenier's "one loss in five" conveniently ignores the Chiefs are also three from five. Show me the run-in fixtures for both sides before anyone crowns the Canes, and on condition that they're even, I might agree the table tells the story.Numbers are honest, takes aren't.
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Happy to be the one holding the spreadsheet on the bottom end, because this is where the real arithmetic lives. Highlanders on 24, Drua on 21, that's a single result between them, and Moana Pasifika on 9 from 14 with one win is close to a write-off in my book. I could be wrong, but the gap from 9 to 24 is 15 points, so any Moana rescue act needs others to collapse badly. Keep an eye on that Highlanders form too, LLWLW, they're doing their best to drag the Drua back into it. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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Bottom three, Moana on 9 from 14 with one win is already sunk at TAB prices, so the live market is Highlanders v Drua and I'd take the 24 v 21 gap to hold. Canes for the title too, Chiefs need them to lose twice and that form (one loss in five) doesn't say it happens. Took the Canes head-to-head at shortish odds weeks back and it's landed comfortably so far 🔥Value over a big price 💸
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