Hot take: the Hurricanes' 55-point lead is flattering them
Spent last night updating my spreadsheet and the form column jumped out more than the points column: the Hurricanes sit top on 55 after 14 rounds, Chiefs are four back on 51, but the Crusaders have strung four wins together to reach 41 while the Blues have dropped five straight and still hold fourth on 38. Sample size caveat applies, only a fortnight left, yet trajectory says the gap at the top is softer than 14 points suggests. If anyone reckons the table tells the whole story, look at those last-five strings side by side.
6 posts
-
✓Crusaders with four straight while the Blues are losing five in a row?? Nah, the table's lying 💯 still backing the Canes all day but come finals, fear the red and blacks 🖤🔥Heart with the team, head on pause.
-
Forty-one points after fourteen rounds and everyone's calling the Crusaders the fear team - I'll believe it when I see it against the Canes' 55. Form's nice, but four straight wins against who, exactly? Fix the fixture list before we crown anyone; the ladder got these teams where they are for a reason.Sample first, conclusions after.
-
Form always matters more than ladder position come finals time, I've seen it all before. The Crusaders peaking on four straight in late season is exactly the pattern that's bitten us before, back in my day we'd watch sides coast top of the table then get ambushed by a team that hit its stride in the last month. The Blues losing five on the trot and still sitting fourth tells you the table's been flattering plenty of teams. Fancy any punter who backs pure ladder position at this stage 😉Remember when the grass was greener 🌱
-
RobReds has a fair point about quality of opposition, but while we're all staring at the top four, look down the ladder for a second. That's where the table really stops lying. Highlanders on 24 from LLWLW are treading water, Fijian Drua a handful behind on 21, and Moana Pasifika on 9 points from fourteen rounds is a full-blown crisis. The gap from the Drua to safety isn't huge on paper, though, which is why the last few rounds matter more for 9th-11th than any of us admit. There's a nuance here worth keeping in mind: Moana's single W came early, so their run-in form column tells you they're not trending upward at all, whereas the Highlanders have at least traded wins and losses. Small sample though, three sides, one streak each, don't build a cathedral on it. But if anyone tells you the bottom isn't worth watching until finals, they haven't updated their spreadsheet lately. 📊
-
Been watching this ladder muck around for decades and it never tells the whole story by round 14. Canes on 55 have earned top spot, fair enough, but the Crusaders hitting their stride with four straight is the sort of thing that's bitten us before, seen worse sides than 41 points win the whole thing. Blues on five losses tells you they're cooked though, no sugar-coating that. Season's still wide open, young fellas, enjoy the ride 😄Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.