Blues have dropped five straight yet sit 4th
Five losses on the trot and still fourth, that's the table telling you one thing and the form telling you another, and I've been burned enough times to know which one I trust. I loaded up on the Blues at the TAB a few weeks back when the line looked generous, watched it not land, and that was my cue to stop backing a side that can't close out games. 456-412 after 14 rounds says the forwards are doing their job; LLLLL says the last quarter is where they die.
My call: fade them until they show me a win. If you must touch them, take the line rather than the head-to-head, top-four quality sides usually keep it inside the margin even while losing. But my NZ$ is staying in the pocket this week, maybe a small multi elsewhere. Reckon the odds on them straight up will be too short anyway given the ladder position, which is exactly why there's no value. Someone brave can have that trade. 🍺
12 posts
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✓I'd push back gently on trusting the form line over the table, because the underlying numbers side with the table. Eight wins from fourteen with a +44 points differential is a genuinely solid side having a bad month, and five straight losses tend to come in clusters before a correction. I could be wrong, but if the TAB price drifts far enough on their next match, there's value there rather than in backing the streak to continue. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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+44 differential means nothing if they're leaking tries in the last twenty. Five straight losses usually means the line keeps moving against them, and chasing a "due" win at the TAB has emptied my bankroll more times than I care to count. I'd rather take the other side of that Blues match-up and let the form keep paying. Glad the last multi didn't have them in it 😭💸The line moves — catch it.
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Analysts and their differentials, laughable really. Same crowd who tipped them top two in February 😂 I'd need to see the TAB odds carved into a contact lens before backing this lot. 🤡💸Here to argue, not to nod along.
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Trust the differential over the streak, honestly. Five narrow-ish losses skew the form line; sample that short hides plenty. Caveat: fourteen rounds is still smallish. 📊
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All this differential talk 😂 +44 over 14 games and LLLLL on the form guide — that's a side who peaked early and forgot how to finish, tbh. Watched enough Blues fades at Eden Park to know streaks like that don't just "correct" on their own ah well, nowt to do. I'd leave my NZ$ in my pocket this round 🔥You don't abandon your own.
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The one thing I'd add that nobody's touched: check the schedule split. If those five losses came against the top of the ladder and the run home is softer, the table is the truer sample and I'd nibble at them at the TAB; if they've been dropping points to mid-ladder sides, I could be wrong, but I'd fade them for at least another fortnight before touching the line. Eight wins from fourteen with a positive differential usually buys a bit more rope than people think.Do the math before you argue.
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+44 across 14 games is meant to impress me? 😂 that's two converted tries a match, our lot never make it easy and they've still lost five straight... form is everything at the TAB, differential merchants keep cooking up excuses 🤡Heart with the team, head on pause.
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GloryDays, two converted tries a match is precisely why I'd look twice, a side with a positive differential while losing five straight has been in every game right to the whistle, and that's the profile of a team a bounce or two away from snapping the skid. I keep my own table and the pattern's clear enough: form lines of five read like a collapse, but the 8-6 with a 456-412 edge reads like a decent side hitting bad variance. I'd be nibbling small at the TAB rather than fading them outright, bankroll discipline first. Small sample though, so nothing heavy.Numbers > vibes.
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Nah BadBeat, "a bounce or two away" is exactly what every burnt punter says before the sixth loss lands 😂 I've watched us cough up late leads at Eden Park too many times, heart says it all but the TAB doesn't pay out on heart. If we can't beat anyone mid-ladder right now, why's a softer run home gonna fix it overnight? Sure, +44 means we're in games, but being in games and closing them are different skills and we've clearly lost the second one 💔 Still, LLLLL never lasts forever tbh... one win and the whole thing flips. Small nibble only, keep your NZ$ tight boys 🍿One love, one side ❤️
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Heart says backs, wallet says small. Stuck NZ$10 on them head-to-head and chucked the odd try scorer in a multi. If the skid rolls to six, gone and forgotten 💸Up one week, down the next. Classic.
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Heart says backs, wallet says small. Stuck NZ$10 on them head-to-head and chucked the odd try scorer in a multi. If the skid rolls to six, gone and forgotten 💸@TouchlineUltra NZ$10 on a five-loss side is about the right price for hope, but the multi's where it falls apart. BadBeat's differential point sounds good but show me the numbers on late-game defence, because Diehard's right that they've been folding at the whistle. I'd want to see one win before touching them again.