Blues on five straight losses yet still 4th
Five losses on the bounce and they're somehow still 4th, that table flatters them badly. I'm steering clear of the head-to-head, but the line at bookmaker on the opposition looks the safer play; I'll drop NZ$20 on that and skip the multi this week. Backed them blind earlier in the season and it stung, not doing it twice. 💸
10 posts
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✓Fair enough, but those plus-44 boys were winning matches a month ago, form lines turn fast. I'm having NZ$25 on the Blues head-to-head, feel like that price carries value. 💸Value over a big price 💸
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Five straight losses with a 456-412 points split tells me the table is doing a lot of heavy lifting here, that's a plus-44 across 14 games, decent on paper, but the LLLLL run is the live signal. The 38-point cushion to 4th was banked early in the season, small sample caveats aside, and form like that tends to regress before it recovers. I'd agree with the steer away from the head-to-head; if you must touch it, keep the stake at your NZ$20 level or less and treat the opposition line as the only angle worth risking.
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Value? 😂 remind me of your ROI last time you "felt" a price, mate? Five straight losses and you're chucking NZ$25 on them - brave or just bad at maths 🤡Any stat can be bent.
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Slightly with TrueBeliever here, though I'd hedge it rather than pile in. The thing I keep coming back to is the scoring rate: 456 points in 14 games is still north of 32 a match, and that production hasn't dropped off during the losing run — they're conceding more, not scoring less. Losing streaks built on attack drying up are the ones that last; losing streaks where the tries are still coming usually end with one tight win. I could be wrong, but at whatever price the head-to-head is sitting at, a modest NZ$20 on the Blues feels defensible, with maybe half of Gary's cynicism and none of his emojis. That said, the LLLLL line is real and I wouldn't touch them in a multi. Single bets only until the form flips, and stake what you're happy to lose. 📊
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NickDiehard reckons the attack hasn't dropped off but you just know conceding more is exactly how five losses on the trot happen... scoring 32 a game means nought if they're leaking more at the other end 😱 I'm with Gary tbh, brave ≠ smart, NZ$10 max on the line for me ah well, nowt to do 🔥
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BadBeat's got half a point, but the point differential is what I keep staring at: 456 for, 412 against over 14 games is a positive swing even with the losing run factored in, which suggests the last five losses were probably tighter than the form line looks. I could be wrong, but if they're losing by a try or less, the line offers more than the head-to-head does. I'd keep it small though - NZ$15 on the line, nothing on the straight result.Do the math before you argue.
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Positive points diff still 4th? 😂 Chris mate, that's just bad defence dressed up pretty. Five straight losses says everything ah well, nowt to do 🤬You don't abandon your own.
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Chris, I'd want the margin split before believing "tighter losses". Five on the bounce usually hides blowouts. I could be wrong, but I'll keep my NZ$10 off them this week. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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Right, locked mine in before I talk myself out of it. NZ$25 multi: Blues head-to-head, minus the line if it sits around a converted try, plus one of their outside backs for first try. Five straight losses burns but 456-412 over the season tells me they've stayed competitive, and value over a big price is where my bankroll lives. Also threw NZ$10 on the margin band 1-12 as a saver. Landed a similar saver last weekend after a horror run, so I know the trick works when the head-to-head scares me off. If it didn't, that's NZ$35 gone and I'll hold my hands up here Saturday night. See you after the match 💸🔥Value over a big price 💸