Two wins in 14 and a 567 points against
Lost on them last start and it stung, so lesson learned here. Two wins from 14 and 291 points in the red says the line will be huge at the TAB, and even the +big number is a no from me. Value over a big price, and there's none in this mob until they show me a full 80. Keeping my weekend multi well clear. 💸
12 posts
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✓I keep my own table on this lot and 291 points of differential over 14 games is roughly 20 a week worse than their opponents, that's the whole story. The WLLLL run plus 11th on 9 points means even a fat line at the TAB is pricing a team that hasn't shown a full 80 once, so I'd rather leave my NZ$ in my pocket. Only caveat, small sample caveats cut both ways, one decent scrum session could tighten that line value, but I'm not backing them until I see it.Numbers > vibes.
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Fair point on the differential mate, but I took Moana +20 last start and the line moved my way before kickoff. Wouldn't touch them in a multi though, that's throwing NZ$ away.Bankroll discipline wins.
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TouchlineLoyal, remind me how that +20 settled? You're backing a team on two wins all season 😂 I'd rather burn my NZ$ on the pokies than tip Moana this week. 🤡💸It's a lottery, not sport.
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Model_Head, the +20 actually moved my way, so the laugh is on someone here. I could be wrong, but the line at the the book will be so fat precisely because 276-567 over 14 reads awful, and fat lines on bad teams sometimes carry the only value on the board. Small stake only, not a multi leg, and I'd want to see the number before deciding. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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FrontRowFan "could be wrong"... mate the 567 against says he IS wrong 😂 Two wins in 14 and you reckon the fat line is value? Moana haven't shown a full 80 all season, why would this week be different? Burning my NZ$ somewhere else tbh 🤬One love, one side ❤️
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Funny how everyone's arguing about the 567 when the real question is what sample the line-setter is pricing. I keep my own table every round, and here's my read on Moana. Two wins from 14, 276-567, form reading WLLLL. That's a team the TAB has to price at maximum disrespect, and a fat line on a bad side behaves differently from a fat line on a good one. Bad teams with huge lines cover more often than punters expect, purely because the market has already punished them to the point of overshoot. Small sample though, and I'll admit my tracking of line movement on the bottom three this season is thinner than I'd like. TouchlineLoyal's point about the +20 moving his way fits the pattern, one data point, but it rhymes. My honest answer for Josh: I wouldn't put NZ$ on Moana straight out, but I'd sooner take the plus figure than lay anything against them at a price that assumes a blowout.Numbers > vibes.
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FrontRowFan I half agree with ya, fat lines on strugglers can be value. But 276-567 across 14 games aint just bad, that's a side falling apart every week 😱 WLLL in the last four... where's the sign they've suddenly found 80 minutes? I seen Moana at the ground this year and they clocked off before halftime, brutal watch tbh 🤬 BadBeatKing your "own table" bit made me chuckle, everyone's got a spreadsheet until the 567 against starts talking. I'd rather put my NZ$ on the kids game I coach getting one clean lineout than tip Moana this week 😂 ah well, nowt to doYou don't abandon your own.
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BadBeatKing touched on something I've been tracking in my own sheet too. The 567 against is ugly, sure, but lumping it all together hides the shape. A fair chunk of that pile came from the middle rounds when they were shipping 40+ every week, and the recent losses have been tighter on the margin even while the form column reads WLLLL. Depends how you count it, honestly. If you look only at last four margins the decline flattens out, and that's the window the line-setter actually prices hardest. Could be wrong, but I'd rather take the fat start on a side whose recent losses are narrowing than back a fresh favourite at a skinny price. FrontRowFan's logic holds up for me. One caveat though, I'm keeping the stake small on this one, half a unit at the TAB and no more, because a side with two wins in 14 can still find a new way to embarrass you. 📊
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NickDiehard "tighter on the margin" 🤣 mate they still LOST them, WLLLL aint a comeback story 😱 not touching this with my NZ$ 💪One love, one side ❤️
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Funny thing about the margins, Nick: tighter losses often mean the line tightens too, and that's where value dies. Two wins in 14, I'd rather keep my NZ$ for a side showing form. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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Chris nailed it, tighter losses shrink the line and the value goes with it. Two wins in 14 and that 567 against, I'm leaving my NZ$ in the pocket this week, no head-to-head, no line, nothing. Back in here after fulltime to see if anyone actually landed something 😭Value over a big price 💸