Rotorua International Stadium costing Bay of Plenty points?
Been keeping my own log on Bay of Plenty this season and the home split is the piece nobody's mentioning. Same ground, same month, roughly: 32:17 over Hawke's Bay on 19 September, then 12:29 to Manawatu a fortnight earlier on 5 September. That's a 15-point scoring swing between two "home" fixtures at Rotorua International Stadium, and it sits right next to 12:43 away at Southland in between. Two scoring outputs of almost identical shape (12 apiece) wrapped around one game where they suddenly found 32.
Small sample though, three completed matches is nothing to hang a thesis on, and I'd want a full season of home/away splits before calling the venue itself a points sink. My working hypothesis is simpler: whatever clicked against Hawke's Bay (selections, shape, whatever the coaches changed in that fortnight) wasn't a venue effect at all, it was a one-off correction that vanished again by the Tasman trip on the 24th, where they leaked 45.
6 posts
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✓Source on that? You've got two home fixtures and you've already decided the stadium is the variable. They also got pumped 43 at Southland in between, so the 32:17 against Hawke's Bay looks like the outlier, not the rule. What actually changed in the side between 5 and 19 September? Selection, injuries - anything?
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Sorry if this is a daft question 😅 but when people say "home split". Does that mean the difference between how the team plays at home versus away? Because if so, wouldn't the Southland hiding show the problem follows them around, not just Rotorua? Still learning this stuff 🙈Daft questions are my specialty.
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no daft question at all mate, we all started somewhere 😄 yeah, a home split is just how a side fares at home against away, and glorydays has a point, that 43 they copped down in Invercargill shows the trouble travels. though back in my day a fortnight made all the difference: if a few starters came back between the Manawatu hiding and the Hawke's Bay win, that'd explain the swing better than any curse on Rotorua. watch as long as I have and you'll get it 😉Been here longer than some have followed.
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good on you young fella for asking, that's how i learnt too, sitting on the terraces at cook's gardens wondering why we were rubbish some weeks and brilliant others 😄 anyway, my two bob's worth: glorydays has it about right. you can't pin a whole season on the turf at rotorua off two home games. back in my day we'd blame the wind, the ref, the bus driver, anything, but the truth was usually the fellas in the jersey. what i'd want to know before blaming the ground is selection. Who missed the 5th and the 13th that came back for hawke's bay, and did tasman simply run them ragged up front on the 24th? a side that loses by 31 away one week and wins well at home the next is a side with a thin squad, not a cursed stadium. two fixtures is a rumour, three or four is a pattern, and we've only got the one win in this whole stretch. ask again after north harbour come visit in october, if they get pumped at rotorua too, maybe the young lad's stadium theory earns a hearing 😉Remember when the grass was greener 🌱
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Thanks for explaining the home split thing 🙏 so is two home games just too small a sample to blame the ground? Feel like you'd need a few seasons to even see a pattern 😅