Anyone backing North Harbour to spoil Bay of Plenty's bounce back?
One win in five isn't a bandwagon I'd pile money on, but that 32:17 over Hawke's Bay at Rotorua shows what they can do when the forwards front up. I'll take the Steamers at home on 4 October but only around the double-figure line — after the 26:45 at Tasman I don't trust them for the outright. $20 head-to-head plus a fiver on them covering, TAB multi legs are earning their keep elsewhere this weekend.
16 posts
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✓Double-figure line with me? That 12:29 to Manawatu at home says fade the Steamers, I'd want Harbour plus the points before I put a cent on. 😭Value over a big price 💸
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That Rotorua bounce-back is real but the sample's tiny, TouchlineUltra, one good home performance against four pretty ordinary results. Look at the actual splits: at home they're 1-2 across that stretch (32:17 over Hawke's Bay, but 12:29 to Manawatu before it), while away they've shipped 26:45 and 12:43. The 26:45 Tasman scoreline and the 12:43 Southland one aren't flukes of the same kind - Tasman put up points in bunches, Southland just ground them down, which suggests two different failure modes rather than one systemic issue. There's a nuance there worth noting before anyone prices this as a steamroller either way. So where I land: I agree with taking Bay of Plenty at home, but I'd frame it through the home/away split rather than the raw win-loss record, because four games is a small sample and the 32:17 is carrying a lot of weight in everyone's reasoning.
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Lucy talking about fading teams 😂 remind me of your ROI? Same mob who tanked the Manawatu call too. Put your NZ$ where your mouth is, love. 🤡💸Any stat can be bent.
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Manawatu at home was ugly but everyone's cherry-picking the bad ones 😅 that Hawke's Bay game I was there, forwards smashed the door in. Harbour away from home aren't world beaters either. I'm backing the Steamers outright, worst case I lose my NZ$10 on the TAB and sulk ah well, nowt to do 💪🔥You don't abandon your own.
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Count the points, not the wins, that's where my read on this one comes from. In four of their five matches the Steamers have conceded 29 or more; the only exception is the Hawke's Bay game. That tells me the 32:17 bounce-back was probably a response-to-crisis performance with the pack up for it, and those rarely repeat two weeks running. North Harbour aren't world beaters, sure, but a side that lost 12:43 to Southland and 26:45 to Tasman away shouldn't be trusted at any sort of short price, even in Rotorua. I could be wrong, but if I'm putting anything on this it's Harbour plus the points rather than a Steamers win, the sample from that home win is one match against a mediocre side, and Lucy's Manawatu point is the uncomfortable one everyone's skipping past. Small stakes on the TAB, expect variance, and don't let SeenItAllFaithful's vibe carry your bankroll. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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Count the points all you like FrontRowFan, but one home game where the pack dominated tells me more than four blowouts against sides that ran hot that week 😤 45 from Tasman stung, sure... you think Harbour's forwards are gonna do any better than Hawke's Bay did at Rotorua? Putting my NZ$ on the Steamers 🔥💪One love, one side ❤️
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FrontRowFan has a point buried in there, I could be wrong, but the pattern isn't just four bad losses. It's that away from Rotorua this side has been tids: 43 and 45 conceded on the road, 12 points scored in both. The 4 October match is at home though, and the Hawke's Bay tape shows the pack can set a platform when the crowd's behind them. I'd take the Steamers straight out at the TAB, but small stakes only, because Harbour's away form is the one variable nobody's actually measured in this thread.Do the math before you argue.
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ChrisDiehard387 two of those were genuinely on the road tho, Harbour are coming to us 🔥 one bad away split doesn't scare me, backing the Steamers 💪
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The Hawke's Bay win came eight days after the Manawatu loss, off a six-day turnaround, so rest isn't the variable people think it is, and I've been tracking the Steamers' scoring pattern per match in my own table. What jumps out at me: in their two Rotorua fixtures they've averaged 22 points a game; away from home that drops to 19, but the real gap is defence, 29 conceded per match on the road versus 23 at home. So the home split matters, just not in the romantic way FullbackNut means it. Harbour will have watched that Tasman tape, and Tasman scored 45 by going wide early. If Harbour's attack runs hot that week, like Southland and Tasman did, one dominant scrum won't save you. I could be wrong, but I'd want better than even money before touching this. A small punt on the Steamers at the TAB is fine; stacking them in a weekend multi feels brave to me. 📊
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NickDiehard's "own table" lol, everyone's got a spreadsheet when they wanna sound clever 😅 the Manawatu turnaround talk means nothing to me, that Hawke's Bay win was eight days after, sure, but Harbour haven't had to front up at Rotorua yet have they? Home crowd, Steamers pack finally clicked, I backed them on the TAB that night and I'm going back in for the 4th. Yeah nah, one home game isn't a trend, but it's more than Harbour have shown me lately. Our lot never make it easy but I'm calling it, GET IN 🔥💪One love, one side ❤️
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Fair point from MillieFaithful actually. My table says the sample splits clean: 32 and 12 at home, 26 and 12 away. Venue is the whole edge here 📊Numbers > vibes.
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Hannah88's "professor til kickoff" line made me laugh, but BadBeatKing's table actually falls over the moment you poke it. The home sample isn't 32 and 12 pointing one way, it's 32:17 against Hawke's Bay and 12:29 against Manawatu. They lost at Rotorua by 17 a month ago. So venue alone explains nothing; what it really says is their forward pack turned up for one of four matches, and that's a coin toss, not an edge. If you're pricing this, the honest read is a side that's lost three of four regardless of postcode. I'd want to see Harbour's away numbers and the TAB line before touching anything, and even then probably just leave the steamers alone. Fade at your own risk.Sample first, conclusions after.
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FixIsIn_Denier's got a point about that Manawatu loss at home, can't argue with 12:29. But loaded up on the Steamers straight win here anyway, small stake on the TAB, plus North Harbour on the line in the same multi as cover 💸 That Tasman trip was ugly but Rotorua's where they front up - 32:17 over Hawke's Bay says enough for me. See you all after the match, either celebrating or crying into a beer 😭🍺Bankroll discipline wins.