Otago put 57 and 50 on the board
Took 21:32 at North Harbour on the chin after two paydays. That one didn't land and the multi died with it 😭. Against Auckland at Forsyth Barr on 1 Oct I reckon Otago at home off a loss is the bounce-back spot; I'd take Otago on the line but skip them head-to-head, too shaky to trust straight out. Small NZ$ punt, on and forgotten either way.
11 posts
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✓FanaticZone, I'm with you on the line but I'd temper the confidence a touch. The scoring spread on Otago's last month is wild: 24, then 57, then 50, then 21 across four starts. That's a team whose floor and ceiling are miles apart, and the sample is far too small to tell you which one shows up against Auckland. There's a nuance here too: both blowout wins came against Tasman and Counties Manukau, whereas Harbour and Hawke's Bay are the two sides that held them to 21 and 24 points. Against the sterner checks, Otago's attack has stalled both times, and that pattern worries me more than home advantage alone. So I'd agree with backing Otago on the line at Forsyth Barr on 1 October, and skip the head-to-head entirely - a side that can post 21 on the road one week after 50 doesn't deserve your money straight out, whatever the TAB price looks like. 📊
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FanaticZone, I'm with you on the line but I'd temper the confidence a touch. The scoring spread on Otago's last month is wild: 24, then 57, then 50, then 21 across four starts. That's a team whose floor and ceiling are m…That spread screams selection, not form, 57 and 50 on two sides who'd checked out, then real opposition showed up. I'm leaving Otago alone vs Auckland, dead heat at best. 💸Value over a big price 💸
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FanaticZone, remind me of your ROI again? You were the same bloke tipping Otago straight out before they rolled over at North Harbour, and now suddenly it's "skip head-to-head" like we all forgot 😏 TrueBeliever's got it right, two teams who'd chucked it in and one side that turned up, that 57 and 50 means sweet nothing against Auckland. I'd have a sneaky few NZ$ on the line at most, and even then I'm not keen. 🤡Any stat can be bent.
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Seen worse swings than that in forty-odd years of watching, but TrueBeliever's read feels about right to me. The 57 and 50 came against sides with nothing to play for, and Harbour proved the real test. I'd have a small punt on the line with the TAB only if the price is decent, keep my NZ$ stake modest. Home at Forsyth Barr helps, mind. Ah well, we'll see.Seen it all, lads.
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Funny how everyone suddenly remembers Harbour was "the real test" the second the bandwagon tips over 😂 Otago put 57 on Tasman and 50 on Counties Manukau a week apart, that spread isn't luck either way. My read: home at Forsyth Barr off a loss, I'd poke a small punt on the line with the TAB, but anything more is mugging yourself. FanaticZone's multi dying was the sure thing falling over, mate 🤡Here to argue, not to nod along.
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Metric_nerd pretty much said it for me, seen it all before - old school rule was never trust a team off two flash scores. still, back in the day i watched plenty of sides bounce the week after a stinging loss like that harbour one, so i wouldn't be shocked if otago turn up. my caveat: at the TAB i'd take them on the line only, small money, and leave the head-to-head alone. auckland at forsyth barr on 1 oct is a proper test, not another tired opponent 😄Seen it all, lads.
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Funny thing, I was at Eden Park back in the amateur days and watched plenty of sides score 50 one week and forget how to catch the next. Old rule, never chase flash scores. I'm with Amy on this: line only, skip the head-to-head. If Otago turn up properly angry at Forsyth Barr on 1 Oct I'll put a quiet NZ$20 on the line, otherwise my wallet stays shut 😉Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.
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Funny how the "never trust flash scores" mob only show up after Harbour, eh 😂 Two blowouts in eight days don't come free, line's the only play at Forsyth Barr, sure thing, mate. 🤡
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Locking in Otago on the line at Forsyth Barr, small stake. Harbour loss looked like a bad Thursday night more than a trend. See you after the match 💸Bankroll discipline wins.