Hurricanes top the table with 55 points - who dares bet against them?
Landed a nice one on them last weekend and I'm not chasing that same juice blindly this week. That's how I burnt NZ$200 back in the day, backing a hot streak like it owed me rent. That said, 11 wins from 14 and a 264-point differential, you'd want your head read taking anyone over them at the bookmaker right now. The line's the only real question: they'll win, but will they cover what's likely a chunky margin? I'm taking them to win, keeping the multi modest, head-to-head plus an odd try scorer, couple of units only. Blown out by 20+ has happened to them (3 losses say they're mortal when the forwards get rolled), but against a mid-table side this week? Value's thin, so small stake, straight result. 💸
11 posts
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✓Everyone piling on the Hurricanes is exactly why I'm looking the other way this week. 55 points from 14 rounds, sure, that's earned. But the TAB knows it too, and the price on them straight up will be so short there's no value left in it. That 264-point differential got built on a few blowouts; three losses says they're beatable on an off night. I got burnt the same way as you, Diehard - backed a hot side at a terrible price and watched the underdog land inside the line. Lesson stuck. If the line's anywhere near double digits, I'd rather take the points with whoever they're facing and keep the stake small. Favourites cover the table, they don't always cover the line 😭💸Value over a big price 💸
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I could be wrong, but 11-3 with a 264-point differential speaks for itself, I'm on them again, small stake only. chased NZ$200 lesson learned too 📊Do the math before you argue.
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JoshBlues preaching "value" when your last six tips on this thread sank harder than the ferry out of Wellington 😂 11-3 and 264 points in the black is earned, mate — if the price is too short for you, just say you're broke. Remind me of your ROI again? 🤡💸Any stat can be bent.
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JoshBlues has half a point about the price, but the nuance is where the value actually sits: 562 points for in 14 matches means the Hurricanes win by margin, so the line on them is where the juice hides, not the straight win. I keep my own column every round and their differential has been remarkably stable week to week, which matters more than the raw record. Small sample though, three losses is three losses, and no price stays fair forever. Modest stake on them covering, that's my line in the sand. 📊
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Nah, I've watched enough footy to know a hot run means squat come match day 😅 Reckon back in 2019 I put NZ$50 on a province side that hadn't lost all season, they got turned over at home in the rain, cost me a night's beers ah well, nowt to do That said, 11 from 14 and 562 points is a proper engine, not luck. But JoshBlues ain't wrong that the straight win price will be thinner than pub Friday ale, if I go in it's the line, small stake, and I'm prepared to eat the loss. Hurricanes at home though? 😱 brave money is wherever they're NOT 🔥You don't abandon your own.
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FixIsInPTSD is onto something, though I'd add a caveat: the margin line prices in form just as hard as the straight win does, and 264 points of differential over 14 rounds gets taxed by the market too. Depends how you count it, really, if the TAB hangs a line above what their average winning margin suggests, that's where I'd look, but I'd want to check the splits home versus away before putting NZ$ anywhere. Small sample though, three losses already tells you they're not infallible, just expensive.Numbers > vibes.
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SeenItAllFaithful summed it up tbh, one wet Saturday in Wellington and 562 points means nothing 😅 everyone talking margin like it's free money, that's exactly how the TAB gets ya. We're 11-3 not 14-0, three losses happened for a reason lads 🤷One love, one side ❤️
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Straight win plus a small margin play, keeping the stake modest. Three losses this season say don't get greedy 💸 See you all after the match.Bankroll discipline wins.
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Straight win plus a small margin play, keeping the stake modest. Three losses this season say don't get greedy 💸 See you all after the match.Sensible play @StatHeadAnalyst, keep it modest. Word going round training's been a bit quiet this week though 🤫 take that how you like.Screenshot this.
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Diehard's right about the wet Saturday bit, that's the one variable the form stats never price properly. Watched a multi die at the Hutt one winter because the ball spent more time in the air than in hand, all mine to do. Margin's where I'd go if I touched it, but the TAB has already taxed that differential, BadBeatKing nailed it. My approach this week: straight win only, small stake, no odd try scorer leg. Burned too many multi legs on the flashy bit while the banker landed fine. 11-3 isn't 14-0 for a reason, respect the three losses 💸Bankroll discipline wins.