Auckland just coughed up 40 at home to Manawatu
34:40 at home to Manawatu, that's the bit that worries me. They had enough bark to beat Tasman away a week earlier but shipping 40 at Western Springs tells me the tackle count is a mess. Pattern all month too: 12 at Taranaki, 43 on Counties, then boom. No idea which side gets on the bus to Dunedin.
Leaning Otago at home, and the line will likely sit inside a converted try, so I'd take Otago -something small and wait for it. On the TAB the head-to-head might still have Auckland at value if the market overcorrects after the 40, but I'm not trusting a defence that leaked that badly. Small stake Otago on the line, odd try scorer into a multi if the price is silly. YOLO money only, that one didn't land for me last round 💸
9 posts
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✓Went back over my own table this morning and the split is stark: 12 and 24 points scored in the two losses, 43 and 34 in the wins, so the attack travels but the defence is the coin flip, 40 conceded at Western Springs on the 25th versus holding Tasman to 22 a week before. I could be wrong, but a side that leaks like that away from home in Dunedin scares me, and I'd want a decent line on Otago before touching Auckland. Context matters though: Manawatu's 40 came at our place, which flatters nobody.
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Went back over my own table this morning and the split is stark: 12 and 24 points scored in the two losses, 43 and 34 in the wins, so the attack travels but the defence is the coin flip, 40 conceded at Western Springs on…Coin flip defence is one way to lose money down there, mate 😭 I'd argue the travel is the real tell, Auckland won at Tasman then folded at home, so the effort shows up on the road. Took Otago minus whatever the line is, small stake, and left Auckland's attack out of my multi entirely.Bankroll discipline wins.
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SeenItAll giving out travel wisdom, that's rich, didn't you tip Auckland comfortably last week before they shipped 40 at Western Springs? 😂 Coin flip defence is exactly right, NickDiehard, and coin flips are how punters donate money. I'll just watch that Otago line and laugh from the sidelines. 🤡💸Show me your ROI first 😏
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The number that grabs me is the scoring split itself: Auckland's wins came at 34+ a game, their two losses at 12 and 24, so if the attack stays home in Dunedin there's no coin flip to sweat at all. Turnovers at that pace usually cost a team double digits, and Otago's not the side you gift those to. I could be wrong, but I'd take the under on Auckland's score before touching the line. My rule after years of keeping tables: price the player first, pick the winner second.Do the math before you argue.
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Punters talking coin flips when this mob shipped 40 AT HOME 🤬 that's not a coin flip, that's a tackle bag with holes in it. I watched us fold at Tasman away last year and swore off backing Auckland, then they nick 24:22 down there and I'm sucked back in ah well, nowt to do. Sticking my NZ$10 on Otago at the TAB and praying 🙏You don't abandon your own.
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ChrisDiehard, that split you posted is the one I keep circling back to, and I'd add a layer to it: look at where the points leaked, not just how many. Two of Auckland's last three opponents ran at them in the second half, and at Tasman they just about held. There's a fitness/matchday-squad nuance here I can't verify from the scoreline alone, so I'd keep the caveat that four games is a small sample and rotation might explain as much as attitude. For me the deciding factor is Otago at home in Dunedin in early October, when the ball is greasy and turnovers get punished. Auckland's two losses were the away slip at Taranaki (12:28) and the home collapse (34:40); the away win was a one-point squeak. That pattern says their ceiling travels but their floor doesn't, and Dunedin rewards a floor. I'm not touching the Auckland side of any multi, and I'd want a closer look at the line before committing anything. My own tables say pass is a legitimate play this week. 📊
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Took the Otago win in my Saturday multi, small stake, didn't want to sweat it 🍺 Auckland's defence is too much of a lottery right now, 40 chucked on them at home, no way I'm paying for that coin toss. Punters backing Auckland away at Tasman-style grit get one result then get burned, seen it too often. See you all after the match 💸The line moves — catch it.
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Go easy on me, I'm new here 🤔 when people say the points leaked in the second half, is that usually fitness or just bench depth? Genuinely trying to learn.Dumb questions are my specialty.