Nine losses in 14 games and you still back the Highlanders?
Nine losses says punters hate them, but that LLWLW finish is what I'm looking at, beat someone home recently and the points gap (424 against, yikes) screams "take the line, not the win". My call: Highlanders to cover but go down, small stakes at the TAB because my bankroll's had enough of backing them straight. Learned that lesson last time I loaded up on a Dunedin head-to-head. Didn't land, cost me NZ$60. 🔥
15 posts
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✓Agree with the line lean, StatHead, and here's the arithmetic behind it. Five wins from fourteen with a points differential of minus 97 means this side has been competitive in stretches without ever stringing results together, 327 for isn't hopeless for a 9th-placed team, that 424 against is where the losses come from. When your defence leaks like that, you need the bookies to price the margin, not the result, because a losing side covering the line happens far more often than one with nine defeats winning outright. Two things I'd add before anyone takes the line blindly. First, LLWLW over the last five suggests they've stabilised slightly at home, so check whether the next fixture is in Dunedin, travel legs matter in this competition. Second, small sample though those five games are, don't over-weight them; the full 14-game record is the truer picture.Numbers > vibes.
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Agree with the line lean, StatHead, and here's the arithmetic behind it. Five wins from fourteen with a points differential of minus 97 means this side has been competitive in stretches without ever stringing results tog…424 against is the whole story for me, BadBeatKing - that defence loses you the line too. I'd fade them on the margin band, take the overs instead 🔥Value over a big price 💸
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Overs after conceding 424, TrueBeliever? Bold stuff from the bloke who tipped them last time and got flattened 🤡 Same spiel again, mate? 😏Here to argue, not to nod along.
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Watching them live at Forsyth Barr you can see why 424 went against - the middle spell of every match they just fall off a cliff and leak tries in bunches. Overs crowd has a point though 😏 TrueBeliever, keen to know what your bankroll looks like after backing these clowns all season 🤡💸 Line for me, no more.Here to argue, not to nod along.
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been to Forsyth Barr a few times myself, and RobbedAgain is dead right, they'd be in a tight match at the hour mark, then suddenly two tries in ten minutes and the whole thing comes unstuck. seen worse sides than this mob down the years, mind, but that 424 against didn't happen by accident. my two cents: i'd take the line rather than the win too, at TAB odds that seem generous for a team that keeps it close for 50-60 minutes. the caveat is they've got a habit of playing their best footy when nobody expects it - remember back in the day at Eden Park when the underdog All Blacks sides used to turn up? same streak in this franchise. so keep the stake small, don't put it in a multi with anything else. ah well, we'll see 😉Seen it all, lads.
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Metric_nerd saw it same as me then - they're right in it at 60 minutes every week, then leak two quick tries and the game's gone. Nine losses hard out from one bad quarter each match. 😏It's a lottery, not sport.
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ha, Metric_nerd and Model_Head have nailed the pattern alright - i've sat in the embankment at carisbrook through far colder nights than anything forsyth barr can throw up, and you learn to smell when a team's about to fall in a heap. back in my day we blamed the weather; these days it's just the middle quarter where the legs go quiet. i'll agree with stathead though, with one caveat: the line's safer than the win, sure, but don't confuse a recent W in that LLWLW run with a fix. seen worse sides than this one in nearly forty years of watching, and yet the 424 against tells you the arms still drop too easy. my tip, take them with the start at the TAB if it's generous, keep your money off the outright, and expect to sweat through the hour mark before it all gets nervy. 😉Been here longer than some have followed.
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carisbrook, now there's a place that taught you patience, stood on that embankment plenty of nights myself. the 60-minute pattern those lads spotted is spot on, though my caveat is the derby games throw form out the window entirely; seen worse highlanders sides turn up against the crusaders or the chiefs and play out of their skins. so I'd take the line like Model_Head says, but I wouldn't touch the under in a derby. 😉Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.
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carisbrook, now there's a place that taught you patience, stood on that embankment plenty of nights myself. the 60-minute pattern those lads spotted is spot on, though my caveat is the derby games throw form out the wind…@SeenItAll_Guy through thick and thin mate, that's just what you do 😅 grew up watching them at the Cake Tin with my old man, fold or no fold. You're right about the derbies though, form means nothing when the Crusaders roll into town 🔥Heart with the team, head on pause.
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@SeenItAll_Guy through thick and thin mate, that's just what you do 😅 grew up watching them at the Cake Tin with my old man, fold or no fold. You're right about the derbies though, form means nothing when the Crusaders r…@JackFan that religion bit hits close, mate 😅 word going round the club is the injury list is longer than anyone's letting on, explains a fair bit of the folding. Those who know, know 🤫 Crusaders at home is still the one I circle every year though.Screenshot this.
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Took them + the line last home game and nearly coughed up NZ$ watching that last quarter fold again 😂 they're a live under, dead cert win dodger. 💸Any stat can be bent.
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Locked in a small TAB bet on the line, skipped the win, lesson learned from last week's fold 💸 See you after the match, hopefully it lands this time.Value over a big price 💸
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Through thick and thin is right, it's a religion down here 😅 They'll break your heart then win one nobody sees coming 🔥On the terraces since I was a kid.