Moana Pasifika to finally snap this skid at home in Auckland
Two wins from fourteen and I'm still circling this one, go figure. I had them on the line a few weeks back and watched it die in the last ten minutes, lesson taken, I've stopped paying full price for loyalty. But at home in Auckland, against nobody special, this is the week the skid ends. Moana's attack numbers (276 points) aren't the problem, it's the 567 they've leaked, and if they can just hold someone under their season average at Mount Smart the game stays live into the final quarter.
I'm on the TAB head-to-head at whatever shortish price they're paying, value over a big price when you're backing a team that's lost five straight, no point doubling the risk on a bet like that. Small unit, NZ$20 on its own, nothing in the multi. If they don't show up in front of their own crowd this week, I'll happily eat it and move on. 🍺
11 posts
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✓Two wins from fourteen reads worse than it plays, Josh. I keep my own table and their points split (276-567) says the defence is the real problem, roughly 40 conceded a match, which no Auckland crowd fixes on its own. I could be wrong, but at 11th with nine points and WLLLL form, I'd want a decent price before touching them on the line at the TAB. Home and motivated, sure; brave money, no.Do the math before you argue.
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Chris, conceding 40 a game is exactly why I'd take the opposition line instead, that defence hasn't landed for me all season. Sorry, but my NZ$20 stays off Moana this week 😭💸Value over a big price 💸
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Josh, mate, weren't you the one last month saying "this is the week" too? Your record's worse than their defence 😂 Line's a trap, Lucy's got it right 🤡💸Here to argue, not to nod along.
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Form column has W first at least, that WLLLL hides that two of the losses were tight-ish. I could be wrong, but home crowd plus a flat opponent, I'd nibble the line with a small NZ$ stake. 📊
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GoTheDistanceOrNothing taking shots at everyone while backing neither side is rich tbh 😂 At least we're throwing a few dollars at it, mate. I've backed our lot through thick and thin all year, two wins or not, and Auckland crowd lifts them every home game - you just know this is the week. Five straight losses, ah well, nowt to do but keep the faith 🏉🔥
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Points differential of -291 is the stat that stops me here. Even at home, that's not a skid, that's structural. NZ$10 on the line tops for me, and only because the crowd counts for something. 📊
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Points differential of -291 is the stat that stops me here. Even at home, that's not a skid, that's structural. NZ$10 on the line tops for me, and only because the crowd counts for something. 📊@FixIsInPTSD fair point on the differential, but I've seen worse sides than this sneak one at home when everyone's written them off. Reminds me of those Bledisloe nights where the crowd dragged the team over the line. NZ$10 on the line sounds about right, no more. 😉Seen it all, lads.
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Josh, you watched your line bet die in the last ten mins ONCE and now you're coaching us all? 😱 Supporter's got it right - Auckland crowd lifts them every time. I'm throwing NZ$10 on it, scared money wins nothing 🔥💪Heart with the team, head on pause.
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I've been tracking their defensive splits all year and here's my read: the -291 is real, but a fair chunk of it came in blowouts away from home, while the tighter losses fit Nick's "nibble the line" theory. Context matters, and the Auckland crowd genuinely shortens games for them late. So I'm with the small-stake crowd. NZ$10 on the line, treat it as entertainment money rather than an investment. Could be wrong, but that's my pick.Do the math before you argue.
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Been burned on this mob twice this season already - once on the line, once in a multi where the try scorer leg landed but the result didn't. Still, -291 differential or not, I've had a look at how FrontRow framed the away blowouts and that sits right with me. NZ$20 on Moana plus the line at the TAB, small float on the head-to-head for the fortnight's savings. They owe the Auckland crowd one, and a 2-12 side getting a little love at home is exactly where the TAB price looks a touch fat to me. Loyalty tax is paid, no more full price after this. Locked in, see you all after the match, hopefully I'm posting about a payout instead of a burn. 💸🔥The line moves — catch it.