Moana Pasifika have leaked 567 points in 14 games
Took the TAB line against them two rounds back and it sailed through - that's four on the bounce now, and 567 points against in 14 games tells you everything about their defence. You can't tip a side leaking 40-plus a week, no matter how much heart they show. I'm laying them every remaining round until the market catches up.
Last season I got cute with an upset multi, stuck NZ$50 on them as an outsider and watched it die inside 30 minutes. On and forgotten. If anything, the value play is them keeping a margin under the big line, not winning. Upset? Not with this defensive record, sorry. 💸
13 posts
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✓567 across 14 games works out to 40.5 a week, and that's before you even look at the other end of the ledger: 276 for in fourteen matches is under 20 a game, so they're losing by roughly 20 points a week on average. That's the whole prediction story in two numbers really. Form reads W-L-L-L-L, 11th on 9 points, so the sample is about as consistent as it gets — I keep my own table every round and there's no row there suggesting a corner has been turned. I could be wrong, but anyone tipping them from here is tipping sentiment rather than anything the tape supports. The defensive workload never gets relief because the attack can't hold the ball long enough to rest the forwards. Depends how you count "heart" I suppose, but heart doesn't appear in a points-for column. If the TAB line stays generous against them next round, that's where the value sits; taking Moana straight up at this stage of the season is a bankroll leak, and I say that as someone who wants them to prove me wrong. 📊
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Averages hide the tail-end collapses though. One weekend they'll keep a fat line inside the number, that's worth a flier. 💸Value over a big price 💸
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Nick, your "two numbers" heroics last time tipped a Moana win, if I remember right? How'd that 40 a week work out for ya 🤡 sure thing, mate 😏
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Chloe, digging up Nick's old tip says more about your receipts folder than about the method, honestly. My own angle: the WLLLL run means their one win came five rounds ago, and a side that scores under 20 a week needs the opposition to switch off entirely. I'd only touch a Moana upset if the line has drifted past silly money, and even then it's a tenner flier, nothing more. 📊Numbers > vibes.
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Coached juniors against that sort of defence, we'd still have leaked less 😱 flier on the line? nah, I'm tipping against them again 💪🔥One love, one side ❤️
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A side conceding 40+ a week rarely fixes it mid-season, so I'm with Millie. I could be wrong, but Lucy's "one good line" flier is hope over sample size.Do the math before you argue.
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Chloe, hanging receipts on Nick is easy when you've tipped sweet bugger all yourself 😏 and BadBeatKing, five rounds ago is still a win innit, we've all seen worse sides on skids pinch one 🔥 that said, 567 against after 14?? I coach the juniors and even I wouldn't put my NZ$ on us steering that leak 🤬 tipping against them, hurts to type it 💪
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The point differential is doing more work than people realise: 276 for across 14 games is barely two tries a week, so even on the rare occasions the defence holds, they've got no margin to cash in. My own table has them winning maybe once more if a derby opponent rests players, and that's me being generous, a side conceding over 40 a match on a four-loss run doesn't beat the line, you take the TAB against them every week until the market adjusts. I could be wrong, but the sample says otherwise.Do the math before you argue.
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276 for is the scariest number tbh 😬 everyone's fixated on the 567 but you can't pinch an upset when you barely score two tries a game 🔥On the terraces since I was a kid.
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Scrum_Legend has it backwards in my view. Scoring droughts can turn with one sharp backline session, defensive structure doesn't. Look at the split: they're conceding roughly 40 a game, which means even if the attack double tomorrow, the line still beats them. I keep my own table on this and the pattern's brutal; small sample though, two wins tells us almost nothing about ceiling. For tipping purposes I'm fading them every week until the concession rate drops below the mid-30s. 📊
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FixIsInPTSD has the right of it, defence like that doesn't get fixed mid-season. Faded them for weeks, put NZ$20 on the line against them again. See you after the match 💸Value over a big price 💸
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Defence first imo, FixIsInPTSD is right. Watched them get bashed up front all year, no platform, no fix overnight 😩In the stands since I was a kid.